IEP - Teses de Doutoramento / Doctoral Theses
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Browsing IEP - Teses de Doutoramento / Doctoral Theses by Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) "16:Paz, Justiça e Instituições Eficazes"
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- The ECB'S quest to balance discretion, independence and legitimacy : crises as a catalyst for increased powerPublication . Faria, Luís de Andrade Guerra Leal de; Alves, André AzevedoThe European sovereign debt crisis prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement a series of unconventional monetary policy measures to restore confidence in the euro. This crisis also led the EU to establish a Single Supervisory Mechanism, overseen by the ECB. Moreover, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic further widened the ECB’s unconventional toolkit, not to mention the subsequent Transmission Protection Instrument to support an effective monetary policy transmission following Ukraine’s invasion. In addition, new objectives, such as the fight against climate change, are likely to further extend the ECB’s powers. While some of these changes could be seen as necessary to preserve financial and economic stability in the euro area, they have also led to an increasing accumulation of power that may go beyond the ECB’s supposedly technocratic nature. Against this background, our main objective is to examine whether the ECB’s increasing scope for action, most notably after the sovereign debt crisis, may threaten its democratic legitimacy. To conduct this analysis, we initially concentrate on the concept of discretion. We demonstrate how specific policies of the ECB have led the institution to move beyond its technocratic realm. Then, in the following part, we consider whether the institution’s growing discretion may be influenced by the level of political experience of those involved in the decision-making. In this part, we also have a look at the implications of our findings for the independence of the ECB. At last, in Part 3, based on the concept of legitimacy, we discuss the main implications of the conclusions reached in Parts 1 and 2. We stress that discretionary judgements make it more challenging to justify delegating powers to independent central banks. Ultimately, we conclude that the ECB’s legitimacy depends on its limited discretion in the future.
- The rise of hybrid war : a study on the transformation of international security and the allied powers` future conflict environmentsPublication . Torres, Manuel João de Paula Poêjo; Garcia, Francisco ProençaThis dissertation proposes an alternative general theory of ‘hybrid war’ based on quantum principles, reestablishing the link with Clausewitz and its remarkable trinity, while exploring the relationship between the emergence of hybrid war and the continuous weakening of the core pillars of modern western liberal democracies, the rupture of global stability and the restructure of the international system. To explore how the rise of hybrid war is related with the current transformations of the international system and forecasted future conflict environments, this dissertation opened by reviewing the evolution of warfare since the 18th century, exposing how the optimal conditions to the proliferation of hybrid warfare came to be. Subsequently, this dissertation proposes a general theory of hybrid war endorsing its Clausewitzian nature, further exploring its causes and origins, questioning if it leads to peace, and if peace leads to war, analysing the mechanics and experience of war, its character and reasons for inferior or superior performance. Past studies highlight that hybrid war is a fusion of conventional and unconventional characteristics, essentially targeting the resilience and cohesion of societies. This dissertation argues that the established ‘hybrid war’ understanding results from a misinterpretation based on an observation displacement error. This research work argues that what is assumed to be a ‘hybrid war’ is in fact the superposition and entanglement of conventional and unconventional activities in a quantum state, which upon observation collapses into a definite state, that can be measured but induces into interpretation errors due to its nature. Beyond strategic theory, this dissertation investigated the impact of emerging disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing in democracies and autocracies. By using economic models of game theory, this research evaluated how different regimes may change their cost signalling and bargaining methods when disruptive technologies are weaponized, adding extra complexity to an already challenging hybrid war. Finally this research concludes that to defeat a hybrid war, a state needs to develop a whole-of-society approach to establish a Total Defence framework. Such a programme would be responsible for the protection of national resilience and social cohesion, in the political, military, economic, cyber and cognitive domains. Succeeding in establishing a Total Defence framework would improve the immunity against a hybrid war continuous challenges and projections of power.
- Uma visão sobre a ideologia liberal no Brasil : o pensamento e a ação do embaixador Roberto Campos, 1917-2001Publication . Béraud, Christophe Antoine Marie; Coutinho, José João Freitas Barbosa PereiraSegundo Bobbio et al (cf. 1998, p.164), a Ciência Política, em sua expressão original, foi elaborada por autores preocupados com a sistematização do entendimento dos processos da vida em sociedade, bem como de seus valores morais. O estudo dos valores morais conduziu à elaboração de conceitos sobre a relação de poder entre indivíduos e grupos. Nesse sentido, a Ciência Política se caracteriza pela reflexão sobre factos, pensamentos e instituições, dentro dum método sistemático e racional. Uma constituição que foge do dogmatismo, consolidando uma questão de direcionamento epistemológico. Nessa perspectiva, variando os arquétipos da pesquisa em Ciência Política, abre-se um leque amplo entre grupos e subgrupos. Dentre estes, destaca-se a Teoria Política como uma apreciação sobre a atualidade, com reflexões prospectivas à luz da tradição do próprio Pensamento Político. Isso posto, ao se constituir uma pesquisa normativa de Teoria Política focada no Brasil, emerge um conjunto temático que abrange a produção científica local, as correntes políticas passadas e presentes, os seus discursos e suas doutrinas. Dessarte, ao lançar o debate no direcionamento apresentado, o presente texto traz um aprofundamento sobre a ideologia liberal dentro do Pensamento Político Brasileiro (PPB). Uma abordagem com foco no pensamento e na ação do Embaixador Roberto Campos como um dos cânones da ideologia liberal no Brasil. Criado no remoto Pantanal e, mais tarde, educado em seminários católicos em Minas Gerais, ocuparia cargos cruciais em sua carreira diplomática e política. Testemunhou o desenvolvimento acelerado do Brasil no século XX; do “Estado Novo”, em sua juventude, à “Nova República”, na maturidade. No plano externo, fez parte da delegação brasileira em Bretton Woods, participou da estruturação da ordem internacional do pós-Segunda Guerra e observou o nascimento e a morte da “Guerra Fria”. Segundo o Embaixador Paulo Roberto de Almeida (cf. 2017, pp. 29 e 76), Roberto Campos foi quem pensou o Brasil visando a opulência e a Liberdade da Nação. Mesmo o Liberalismo no Brasil mostrando-se um ente fugidio, os avanços promovidos por Roberto Campos marcaram importantes etapas na maturação dessa linha na sociedade brasileira. Trata-se duma observação que emerge do estudo dirigido do PPB e, consequentemente, caracteriza um reflexo da Teoria Política em sua melhor forma.