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Browsing Instituto de Estudos Políticos by Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) "16:Paz, Justiça e Instituições Eficazes"
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- The ECB'S quest to balance discretion, independence and legitimacy : crises as a catalyst for increased powerPublication . Faria, Luís de Andrade Guerra Leal de; Alves, André AzevedoThe European sovereign debt crisis prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement a series of unconventional monetary policy measures to restore confidence in the euro. This crisis also led the EU to establish a Single Supervisory Mechanism, overseen by the ECB. Moreover, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic further widened the ECB’s unconventional toolkit, not to mention the subsequent Transmission Protection Instrument to support an effective monetary policy transmission following Ukraine’s invasion. In addition, new objectives, such as the fight against climate change, are likely to further extend the ECB’s powers. While some of these changes could be seen as necessary to preserve financial and economic stability in the euro area, they have also led to an increasing accumulation of power that may go beyond the ECB’s supposedly technocratic nature. Against this background, our main objective is to examine whether the ECB’s increasing scope for action, most notably after the sovereign debt crisis, may threaten its democratic legitimacy. To conduct this analysis, we initially concentrate on the concept of discretion. We demonstrate how specific policies of the ECB have led the institution to move beyond its technocratic realm. Then, in the following part, we consider whether the institution’s growing discretion may be influenced by the level of political experience of those involved in the decision-making. In this part, we also have a look at the implications of our findings for the independence of the ECB. At last, in Part 3, based on the concept of legitimacy, we discuss the main implications of the conclusions reached in Parts 1 and 2. We stress that discretionary judgements make it more challenging to justify delegating powers to independent central banks. Ultimately, we conclude that the ECB’s legitimacy depends on its limited discretion in the future.
- Estratégias metodológicas qualitativas em sociedades em conflito e pós-conflito: perspetivas da Etiópia e da LibériaPublication . Dias, Alexandra Magnólia; Calléja, LucieEste artigo analisa estratégias metodológicas qualitativas aplicáveis a contextos de conflito e pós-conflito, com foco na Etiópia e na Libéria. Ambos os países passaram por transformações profundas após períodos de violência prolongada, sendo contextos particularmente valiosos para a investigação de tipo qualitativa. Entre o leque de técnicas analisadas, destacam-se a investigação etnográfica, as entrevistas semiestruturadas, focus groups, a pesquisa participativa e a observação participante no trabalho de campo. A integração dessas técnicas permitiu captar as nuances das dinâmicas sociais, das narrativas coletivas e das experiências de grupos minoritários ou em situação de exclusão e vulnerabilidade em sociedades pós- -conflito. Ao oferecer essas perspetivas, o artigo contribui para aprofundar a compreensão dos desafios enfrentados e aponta caminhos que podem orientar intervenções de reconstrução da paz nesses dois países.
- Guinea-Bissau: avoiding the reputation of being a failed statePublication . Gonçalves, Paulo; Leandro, Francisco JoséThis paper poses and answers the following research question: How may Guinea-Bissau overcome its permanent governance instability and avoid becoming a “failed state”? This question is particularly important, not only in the context of circumventing being exposed to the economic interests of external actors, but also, to understand the state domestic weaknesses. Guinea-Bissau is a partially archipelagic small state, with an interesting portfolio of natural resources, investment opportunities, and business prospects. The country has suffered decades of institutional instability and social fragility, resulting being rated as “failed-state”. Indeed, O’ Regan &Thompson (2013, p. 3) refer Guinea-Bissau as “(…) the first narco-state in Africa”. There are a number of perspectives to categorize a state as failed-state, but we are focused on the institutional approach and in a possible lack of state authority. As such, we assume that “states fail because they do not possess the political, economic and social capabilities to survive as states” (Hill, 2005; Gros, 1996, p. 456; Jackson, 2000, p. 296; Rotberg, 2004, p. 2; Zartman,1995, p. 5). Once the ideological cradle of colonial self-determination, Guinea-Bissau fought valiantly to gain independence (1963–1974), unilaterally proclaiming it on 24 September 1973 (Té, 2015, p. 30). Regrettably, after gaining recognition as a sovereign state, Guinea-Bissau has witnessed four effective coup d’états, 16 different attempts of coups d’état, one civil war, several parliamentary dissolutions, assassinations of politicians, interference of the militaries in executive functions and frequent change of political executives. Several reasons have contributed to this instability: (1) The interests of neighboring countries as well as an intense international influence; (2) The condition of being a post-colonial state, which is reflected in a number of factors such as poor literacy, health care and security (BTI, 2024); (3) The internal ethnic-religious clashes and the 1980 events, which lead qualified Cabo Verdean personnel to leave the country (Duarte Silva, 2006); (4) The meagre political control of the armed forces associated to a widespread corruption (BTI, 2024); (5) The short minded political culture within a semi-presidential system; (8) and the last but certainly not the least, the under-resourced and sloppy surveillance of borders (US Department of State, 2022, p. 5). All these factors jeopardized its economy, drained its resources, and exposed society to narco-trafficking. A struggle between the President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and the parliament regarding the amendment of the Constitution (among other issues), has further reignited political instability. Apart from the direct competition posed by Senegal, Guinea-Bissau has potential to become a reference economy in the region, and an entry door for the market of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Monetary and Economic Union (WAEMU). However, hardly this will ever happen, without political stability and an urgent need of reform of the defense and security sectors. A transformation not only in its structures but, above all, in mentalities, based on the role of the military in a representative democracy-a semi-presidential political system. This research does not adopt any explicit theory (Creswell & Creswell, 2018, p. 64). Instead, it employs a descriptive-inductive qualitative methodology based on selected themes to evaluate how Guinea-Bissau can avoid becoming a failed state. The critical discussion of these themes, has been supplemented with interviews with Guinea-Bissau’s opinion leaders and representatives of its diaspora, as well as former Portuguese colonial agents. The authors wish to acknowledge that, to mitigate the insufficiency of official and academic qualitative data, we conducted a number of interviews and we used triangulated media sources. The relevant interview transcripts, were freely translated into English language. Finally, this research excludes the last two years (2022-2024) of current political leadership, under the President Embaló. During this period of time President Embaló dissolved the parliament twice, scheduled legislative elections for November 2024 and at the time we write, the presidential election has not been called yet. Therefore, the authors consider important the completion of this sequence of facts, to analyze his political action.
- Portugal e o acolhimento e integração de refugiados na crise migratória europeia de 2015. O papel do estado e o contributo do Serviço Jesuíta aos Refugiados (JRS)Publication . Tavares, Renato de Campos Conti; Ribeiro, Sónia Cristina dos Santos MarquesO ano de 2015 foi marcado pela crise humanitária de refugiados vindos de países da Àfrica e do Médio Oriente. Deslocados forçadamente que, em decorrência de perseguições, conflitos e pobreza, arriscaram suas vidas na dramática travessia do Mar Mediterrâneo em busca de encontrarem acolhida para uma vida digna e segura em países europeus, dentre os quais Portugal. O processo de acolhimento e integração àqueles que conseguiram entrar na União Europeia envolveu Estados e sociedade civil, mostrando a importância desta articulação. Neste sentido, a dissertação ora apresentada pretende dar a conhecer como o Estado Português atuou no acolhimento e integração de refugiados na vaga de 2015 e o papel que a Igreja Católica, através do Serviço Jesuíta aos Refugiados-JRS desempenhou naquele contexto, especialmente na cidade de Lisboa. O enquadramento metodológico esteve pautado na abordagem qualitativa de conjuntos documentais formados por Leis, Decretos, Ações, Regulamentos, Relatórios e Livro Branco, que permitiram alcançar dados sobre as motivações, decisões, intervenções, formas e procedimentos de acolhimento e integração encaminhadas pela União Europeia, Estado Português e pelo JRS, bem como as discussões promovidas por autores especialistas no tema. A pesquisa demonstrou que o JRS-Portugal, como Organização não Governamental da Igreja Católica, foi (e continua a ser) um local de apoio e referência, onde refugiados encontraram (e continuam a encontrar) serviços fundamentais de acolhimento e integração. Por fim, concluiu-se que o JRS-Portugal, alinhado a políticas públicas de carácter nacional e municipal, contribuiu para os Direitos dos Refugiados no âmbito da proteção, assistência e integração ao atender variadas demandas dos refugiados em Portugal na vaga de 2015.
- The rise of hybrid war : a study on the transformation of international security and the allied powers` future conflict environmentsPublication . Torres, Manuel João de Paula Poêjo; Garcia, Francisco ProençaThis dissertation proposes an alternative general theory of ‘hybrid war’ based on quantum principles, reestablishing the link with Clausewitz and its remarkable trinity, while exploring the relationship between the emergence of hybrid war and the continuous weakening of the core pillars of modern western liberal democracies, the rupture of global stability and the restructure of the international system. To explore how the rise of hybrid war is related with the current transformations of the international system and forecasted future conflict environments, this dissertation opened by reviewing the evolution of warfare since the 18th century, exposing how the optimal conditions to the proliferation of hybrid warfare came to be. Subsequently, this dissertation proposes a general theory of hybrid war endorsing its Clausewitzian nature, further exploring its causes and origins, questioning if it leads to peace, and if peace leads to war, analysing the mechanics and experience of war, its character and reasons for inferior or superior performance. Past studies highlight that hybrid war is a fusion of conventional and unconventional characteristics, essentially targeting the resilience and cohesion of societies. This dissertation argues that the established ‘hybrid war’ understanding results from a misinterpretation based on an observation displacement error. This research work argues that what is assumed to be a ‘hybrid war’ is in fact the superposition and entanglement of conventional and unconventional activities in a quantum state, which upon observation collapses into a definite state, that can be measured but induces into interpretation errors due to its nature. Beyond strategic theory, this dissertation investigated the impact of emerging disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing in democracies and autocracies. By using economic models of game theory, this research evaluated how different regimes may change their cost signalling and bargaining methods when disruptive technologies are weaponized, adding extra complexity to an already challenging hybrid war. Finally this research concludes that to defeat a hybrid war, a state needs to develop a whole-of-society approach to establish a Total Defence framework. Such a programme would be responsible for the protection of national resilience and social cohesion, in the political, military, economic, cyber and cognitive domains. Succeeding in establishing a Total Defence framework would improve the immunity against a hybrid war continuous challenges and projections of power.
- Uma visão sobre a ideologia liberal no Brasil : o pensamento e a ação do embaixador Roberto Campos, 1917-2001Publication . Béraud, Christophe Antoine Marie; Coutinho, José João Freitas Barbosa PereiraSegundo Bobbio et al (cf. 1998, p.164), a Ciência Política, em sua expressão original, foi elaborada por autores preocupados com a sistematização do entendimento dos processos da vida em sociedade, bem como de seus valores morais. O estudo dos valores morais conduziu à elaboração de conceitos sobre a relação de poder entre indivíduos e grupos. Nesse sentido, a Ciência Política se caracteriza pela reflexão sobre factos, pensamentos e instituições, dentro dum método sistemático e racional. Uma constituição que foge do dogmatismo, consolidando uma questão de direcionamento epistemológico. Nessa perspectiva, variando os arquétipos da pesquisa em Ciência Política, abre-se um leque amplo entre grupos e subgrupos. Dentre estes, destaca-se a Teoria Política como uma apreciação sobre a atualidade, com reflexões prospectivas à luz da tradição do próprio Pensamento Político. Isso posto, ao se constituir uma pesquisa normativa de Teoria Política focada no Brasil, emerge um conjunto temático que abrange a produção científica local, as correntes políticas passadas e presentes, os seus discursos e suas doutrinas. Dessarte, ao lançar o debate no direcionamento apresentado, o presente texto traz um aprofundamento sobre a ideologia liberal dentro do Pensamento Político Brasileiro (PPB). Uma abordagem com foco no pensamento e na ação do Embaixador Roberto Campos como um dos cânones da ideologia liberal no Brasil. Criado no remoto Pantanal e, mais tarde, educado em seminários católicos em Minas Gerais, ocuparia cargos cruciais em sua carreira diplomática e política. Testemunhou o desenvolvimento acelerado do Brasil no século XX; do “Estado Novo”, em sua juventude, à “Nova República”, na maturidade. No plano externo, fez parte da delegação brasileira em Bretton Woods, participou da estruturação da ordem internacional do pós-Segunda Guerra e observou o nascimento e a morte da “Guerra Fria”. Segundo o Embaixador Paulo Roberto de Almeida (cf. 2017, pp. 29 e 76), Roberto Campos foi quem pensou o Brasil visando a opulência e a Liberdade da Nação. Mesmo o Liberalismo no Brasil mostrando-se um ente fugidio, os avanços promovidos por Roberto Campos marcaram importantes etapas na maturação dessa linha na sociedade brasileira. Trata-se duma observação que emerge do estudo dirigido do PPB e, consequentemente, caracteriza um reflexo da Teoria Política em sua melhor forma.