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- The VAT Laffer curve and the business cycle in the EU27: an empirical approachPublication . Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de; Costa, LeonardoValue Added Tax (VAT) standard rate Laffer curves are estimated for the European Union of twenty seven countries (EU27) over the period 1995-2011, using a twice continuously differentiable VAT revenue quadratic flexible functional form. A business cycle effect on the Laffer curve is found. In recession years, VAT revenue is typically lower, the curve steeper, and the VAT standard rate that maximises VAT revenue slightly smaller than previously. These results can be explained with reference to changes in the composition of consumption and VAT collection enforcement. A countercyclical VAT standard rate policy (procyclical fiscal policy), observable in a few countries, not only increases the underlying business cycle volatility but may also result in long-term instability of VAT revenue. In 2011, the maximum VAT standard rates in expansion and recession were respectively 22.0 and 21.5 per cent. Most of the EU27 countries were operating in the non-prohibitive range of the curve; although Portugal, with a VAT standard rate of 23 per cent, along with several other countries with similar rates, was already operating in the prohibitive range of the curve. VAT standard rate Laffer curves shifted to the left and maximum VAT standard rates declined during the analysed period.
- Tony Silva e a recuperação económicaPublication . Costa, Leonardo
- Total factor productivity of national innovation systems in the European UnionPublication . Costa, Leonardo; Eduardo, NelsonInnovation is important for economic growth. In this research, we analyze the productivity and efficiency of the National Innovation Systems (NIS) of the European Union 28 (EU-28) Member States, in the period 2006–2012. The data come from the Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014 report and Eurostat. Based on the Battese and Coelli (1995) time-varying inefficiency model, a Cobb– Douglas stochastic frontier is estimated as well as the effects of macroeconomic environmental variables on inefficiency. Innovation growth is decomposed into total factor productivity (TFP) changes, accumulation of inputs, and an unexplained residual component. Using an extension of the Kumbhakar and Lovell (2000) decomposition, TFP changes are computed as the sum of technological changes, changes in technical efficiency, and scale effects. Results show decreasing returns to scale in innovation production. Concerning the effects of macroeconomic environmental variables, technical inefficiency decreases with higher standards of living, the rate of economic growth, the reduction of economic inequality, and the control of inflation and unemployment. Excessive financial liquidity and political decentralization increase technical inefficiency. Growth in the innovation production of the EU- 28 Member States is due to TFP changes, to the accumulation of inputs, and to a residual non-explained component. Positive TFP changes resulted exclusively from the improvement in technical efficiency.
- An attempt to explain differences in economic growth: a stochastic frontier approachPublication . Aguiar, Diana; Costa, Leonardo; Silva, ElviraTotal factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001–11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001–11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries.
- The productivity of innovation in PortugalPublication . Araújo, Nuno; Costa, LeonardoWe view innovation as a productive process, with outputs and inputs. We aim at compare the productivity of innovation across the twenty seven Member States of the European Union (EU-27), having a particular focus on Portugal. The data on inputs and outputs of innovation were collected from the Innovation Union Scoreboard 2010 report and covers the EU-27 Member States, from 2006 to 2010. The Total Factor Productivity index (TFP index) was used as the technique for data analysis. The choice of this technique was mainly determined by its flexibility and by data constraints. Two types of TFP indexes were computed: i) TFPt (time), which compares the productivity of innovation in each Member State with its productivity in a base year; ii) TFPs (space), which compares the productivity of innovation in each Member State with the productivity of the EU-27 average. Results show larger TFPs differences across Member States than TFPt differences. Concerning TFPt, there is a reduction of productivity of most of the Member States during the time length, which can be explained by the recent world financial crisis. This was the case of Portugal, where average TFPt in the time length is slightly below 1. The seven Member States that did not lose any productivity are mostly from Eastern Europe, Member Sates which have entered the European Union and accede to its structural funds more recently. Concerning TFPs, Portugal presents average TFPs well above 1. The Portuguese average TFPs value is close to the one of Germany and higher than the one of Sweden. The Innovation Union Scoreboard 2010 report classifies Portugal as Moderate innovator and Germany and Sweden as innovation leaders. We conclude that productivity of innovation in Portugal is similar to the one of Germany and higher than the one of Sweden. Differences between Portugal and those Member States, such as the ones reported in the Innovation Union Scoreboard 2010, can be explained by the fact of Portugal having fewer resources allocated to innovation and thus fewer outputs from innovation than Germany or Sweden have.
- Likelihood of succession and farmers’ attitudes: evidence from a survey in Germany, the United Kingdom and PortugalPublication . Sottomayor, Miguel; Tranter, Richard; Costa, LeonardoThe likelihood of succession in the family farm is referred to in the literature as an influential factor for several family farm management decisions. In this paper, we investigate this relationship for a selection of farm management variables, such as the timing of farmer’s retirement, the willingness of farmers to change the current mix of activities, their readiness to adopt new farm activities, and aim their readiness to intensify production. The categorical data analyzed, mostly Likert scales, comes from a mail survey carried out in 2002 to a sample of German, British and Portuguese farmers, amounting to approximately 4500 valid responses. Statistical association between the variables was studied computing the Chi2 statistic and testing the null hypothesis of no association between pairs of variables. The main conclusions were that the likelihood of succession was positively related to the length of active farmers’ live, to the farmer’s adoption of new activities (only for the Portuguese respondents), and to farmer’s willingness to intensify production. It was also found that the likelihood of succession was negatively related to the intention of leaving farmland idle. On the other hand, no empirical evidence was found of a statistical significant relationship between likelihood of succession and readiness to change the mix of farm activities.
- Between tree lovers and tree haters. Drivers of public perception regarding street trees and its implications on the urban green infrastructure planningPublication . Fernandes, Cláudia Oliveira; Silva, Isabel Martinho da; Teixeira, Catarina Patoilo; Costa, LeonardoStreet trees can play an important role in the urban green infrastructure (UGI). However, changes in the urban fabric often have perverse effects on the structure, diversity, and performance of street trees, and, consequently, on their perception by the public. This research explores public perception of the current street tree adequacy in a coastal neighborhood of Porto that went through a major densification in its urban fabric during the second half of the 20th century. The research methodology included: i) a survey to evaluate public perception of tree services and disservices, and public perception of the adequacy of street trees in the study area; and ii) two Logit models relating public perception of tree services with the characteristics of respondents and streets. 96% of the respondents self-reported as tree lovers. However, more than 30% found the street trees of the study area inadequate to the present urban fabric and 5% have already made a complaint to the municipality. Characteristics of respondents and streets affect respondent’s perceptions. Education plays a key role in the acknowledgment of tree services. Older respondents are more likely to perceive trees as dangerous. Respondents who live on streets dominated by Black Poplar are more likely to dislike trees. Results implications on UGI planning and design advise an adjustment of tree dimensions to street dimensions, an increase in street tree diversity, and an improved street planting design. Results also suggest that an investment in education and information could lead to conflict mitigation.
- Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro AreaPublication . Costa, Leonardo; Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de; Leitão, Alexandra; Paredes, JoséWe describe the neoclassical view of the business cycle by European Institutions in the Euro Area, and derive the stylized facts of business cycles and trends for Germany and Portugal in the period 1991–2018. The data are extracted from the European Commission’s AMECO database. To separate cycle and trend, we use the decomposition available in the AMECO database for the output, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the other variables. The results show that the amplitude of the business cycle and persistence of shocks are greater in Portugal than in Germany. They also show that the stylized facts of the business cycles of the two economies are quite different. Moreover, common shocks have asymmetric consequences. In the long run, there has been a convergence of inflation, general government structural balances, and real unit labour costs, but general government consolidated gross debt, fixed investment, and per capita potential GDP have been increasingly diverging, despite the behaviour of real wages and net exports in the two countries. Additionally, temporary shocks have permanent effects on the Portuguese economy. The results raise questions about the place-neutral macroeconomic policy enforced by the European institutions in the Euro Area, particularly in what concerns cohesion Member States.
- A quarta revolução industrial no setor metalomecânico portuguêsPublication . Moreira, Luís; Costa, Leonardo
- Likelihood of succession and Farmers’ Attitudes towards their future behaviour: evidence from a survey in Germany, the United Kingdom and PortugalPublication . Sottomayor, Miguel; Tranter, Richard; Costa, LeonardoMost authors have referred to the likelihood of having an identified successor in the family as an influential factor affecting several family farm management decisions. Here, we investigate this relationship for a selection of such decisions: the timing of farmers’ retirement; the willingness of farmers to change their current mix of activities; their readiness to adopt new farm activities; and their attitude towards intensifying production. The categorical data analysed, mostly Likert scales, came from a postal survey carried out in 2001–2002 of a sample of 13 516 German, British and Portuguese farmers, with just over 4,600 valid responses. Statistical association between the variables was examined by computing the χ2 statistic and testing for the null hypothesis of no association between the various pairs of variables. The main conclusions are that the likelihood of having a successor was positively related to the planned length of active farmers’ lives, to farmers’ adoption of new activities, and to farmers’ willingness to intensify production in the future. The likelihood of having a successor was also found to be negatively related to the intention of leaving farm land idle. However, no empirical evidence was found of a statistically significant relationship between the likelihood of succession and farmers’ readiness to change the mix of their future farm activities.