Browsing by Issue Date, starting with "2020-01-29"
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- The subprime crisis effects in leverage mechanismsPublication . Pereira, Afonso Vilhalva de Sousa; Bonfim, Diana Carina Ribeiro GuimarãesThis dissertation documents a thorough investigation about the US nonfinancial firms’ capital structure. It extends the findings of Lemmon et.al (2008) that leverage ratios are characterized by both a permanent and a transitory feature to a more recent timespan including the subprime crisis years and its aftermath. The first means that leverage ratios are driven by an unobserved time-invariant factor that generates remarkably stable capital structures. The latter suggests that there is mean reversion in leverage ratios. In other words, high (low) levered firms tend to converge toward more moderate levels of leverage over time. These features are largely unexplained by previously identified determinants and they are also robust to firm exit or IPO processes. Further, the permanent element persists whether managers are more concerned with short- or long-term equilibriums on leverage determinants. It is also examined the relation between the firms’ net issuance activity and leverage with the results providing a strong evidence that it is an active management behaviour toward desired leverage ratios that is behind the transitory mechanism of leverage. Additionally, this analysis reveals that the tendency to issue debt is negatively correlated to firms’ leverage ratios. This dissertation still details the implications of neglecting the permanent component in future empirical specifications attempting to clarify the capital structure heterogeneity.
- Contagion intra-industry effects of bankruptciesPublication . Silva, Filipe André Perre da; Bonfim, Diana Carina Ribeiro GuimarãesThis dissertation investigates the effect of bankruptcies on the industry performance, focusing on the bankrupt firm’s competitors. We test whether the market reacts only on the day of the filling to Chapter 7 (as proven in the previous literature) or if the market also reacts on the day of the effective bankruptcy. In industries with a low degree of competition there is a statistically significant decrease in the industry’s returns during a 11 days period (being the 6th day, the day when the firm is delisted from the stock market), with an average daily return of -0.137%. The same happens for industries with a high degree of competition, with an average daily return of -0.081%. Industry 6000 – “Finance, Insurance and Real Estate” presents the best results to provide evidence for the hypothesis that the market reacts on the announcement and on the effective day of the bankruptcy, with an average excess return for the 3 days (being the 2nd day, the day when the firm is delisted from the stock market) of -0.28%.
- The future of industries : how personalization of insurance policies using artificial intelligence will disrupt the insurance status-quoPublication . Reis, Marina Mendes Lopes; Pinho, André de AlmeidaIn the future, the concept of insurance will change and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already disrupting the state of this industry. Insurers worldwide are using AI to automatize processes and tasks, such as fraud detention, underwriting and claims processing. Additionally, there has been a rise of new competitors in the market, such as InsurTechs, that are bringing innovative solutions for insurance, responding to the new trends in customers’ lifestyles and behaviours, that are more demanding for services directed for their needs. This study aims to understand how personalization of insurance policies, created with Artificial Intelligence, will disrupt this industry in the future and what will be the impact in the European market. Personalization of an insurance policy with AI would encompass the definition of the coverages and premiums more appropriate for an individual customer and do the risk evaluation, in a market of one strategy. This innovation would take advantage of the accrual of Big Data from customers, as people are each time more connected and information about them is constantly being shared, allowing companies to use it to know consumers better. Some limitations that might arise are related to the regulation applied to the insurance industry in Europe regarding customer’s data privacy, with the GDPR and regulation against discrimination in insurance.
- Content on demand : the disruption of OTT platforms in portuguese media distributionPublication . Pereira, Tiago de Almeida Gonçalves; Pinho, André de AlmeidaThe aim of this study is to understand the OTT platforms’ business model and how it will change the Portuguese content distribution industry and its stakeholders in the following decade. By analyzing the existing OTT platforms, how they appeared and way and pace at which they developed, we measure the impact the OTT platforms have already created in the existing players. Furthermore, analyzing the industry’s current and past performance, its major players and customers, it’s possible to forecast the future impact of this potential industry disruptor. To understand the impact OTT platforms will have in content consumption it’s necessary to understand the ways they have already affected customer behavior, (rising customers’ demand for control of the way they view content being only one, but important consequence of the business model), which in turn will serve as a starting point of the study of the industry evolution. Through the analysis of surveys made to relevant customer segments and expert interviews, major industry influencers were identified (technology, content exclusivity and 1P versus 3P bundle price gap), and an analysis was made of the range of possibilities these influencers might react in the coming years to the disruption, resulting in three consolidated scenarios of the future of the content distribution industry were made, based on the aggregation of the most likely responses. Finally, a deeper analysis of each scenario was made, as well as an evaluation of the likelihood of occurrence.
- Blockchain meets government : potential application of blockchain technology in the portuguese public servicesPublication . Danji, Nasser Hussen Habibo; Pinho, André de AlmeidaThe Portuguese public services face a significant gap in the fields of efficiency, automation, security and trust. Research and previous case studies have shown that blockchain technology, when integrated in governments, can undermine such limitations. This study aims to determine the potential impact of blockchain technology on the Portuguese government, namely its public services. Building on existing work in the field of blockchain based governments, together with insights of expert interviewees on both topics, the potential impact of blockchain on the Portuguese government, as well as, which services could benefit the most from the technology were identified. Based on a review of previous literature on blockchain application in governmental entities, on the analysis of case studies of previously successful similar projects and on expert interviews expertise, the measurement of current and potential performance of target public service, prior and after integrated with blockchain technology, revealed significant potential increases in its performance level. On this basis, it is recommended that the Portuguese government implements blockchain technology in its public services. Further research is needed to strengthen and consolidate limitations found throughout this project, as well as, to identify other factors that could facilitate the implementation of blockchain in the Portuguese government.
- Predicting the probabilities of default for the banking sector in the United StatesPublication . Weisel, Lukas Klaus; Silva, Nuno Ricardo Raimundo Rodrigues Marques daThis dissertation implements a structural credit risk model to predict the probabilities of default for the eight largest retail banks in the United States. Similar to Goldstein, Ju, and Leland (2001), the model implemented in this dissertation relates the project/asset value with the firm capacity to generate earnings. Most papers in the literature consider that firms have fixed financial costs and that shareholders decide whenever to liquidate the firm based on the distance between some underlying earnings measure and these fixed costs. This assumption is not reasonable in the case of banks. As an alternative to incorporate shareholders strategic default decision, non-financial fixed costs are considered. These non-financial fixed costs are defined as the non-interest expenses and proxy the operational leverage of the bank. The analysed sample period contains 19 consecutive years, covering the dotcom crisis, the financial crisis and several minor crises in between. The model was calibrated by applying the iterative approach proposed by Vassalou and Xing (2004). The average computed probability of default for the whole sector ranged between 0.06% in 2006 and 5.80% during the financial crisis. These results were compared with the probabilities of default and the distances-to-default implied by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s credit ratings for the period between 2006 and 2018. Though the probabilities of default show a low not significant correlation, the distances-to-default have a correlation of 53.27%, which was found to be significant at the usual significance levels.
- Healthcare meets tech : the impact of 3D printing for orthopedic immobilizer devices : an industry analysisPublication . Wasseige, Jade Cecile de; Pinho, André de AlmeidaTo immobilize or replace a limb, custom-made medical devices must be produced by the orthopedic industry, such as casts, orthoses and prostheses. While very little major progress has been made in this area, the development of new technologies makes it now possible to produce immobilization devices through 3D printing that are specific to the anatomical characteristics of patients. This dissertation aims to determine the advantages of 3D orthoses and external prostheses, their barriers and limitations, as well as the feasibility of implementing the technology on the Belgian market. In order to test the viability of the production of 3D printed immobilization devices as an alternative approach, six expert interviews were conducted. The interviewees focused on main stakeholders: orthopedic surgeons, orthotists, 3D manufacturers and regulators. The results subsequently provided viable indications of therapeutic effectiveness and benefits for the patient’s quality of life. The main barriers to adoption are the economic parameter as well as the maturity of the technology. However, technological advances, well-defined crosscollaboration, and an adapted business model combining a ‘SaaS’ and ‘end to end’ solution can overcome these barriers and ensure successful implementation. In conclusion, 3D printing technology in the orthopedic industry proves to have an achievable diffusion. If executed diligently, 3D printed orthoses and prostheses may become common devices.
- A regulação emocional e os ferimentos auto-infligidos nos jovens universitáriosPublication . Santos, Sara Margarida de Sousa; Gonçalves, ArmandaO presente estágio realizou-se no Hospital da Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Vila Verde, desenvolvido no âmbito do 2º ano do Mestrado em Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde da Faculdade de Filosofia e Ciências Sociais da Universidade Católica Portuguesa – Centro Regional de Braga. O estágio curricular teve início no dia 9 de outubro de 2018 e terminou no dia 18 de junho de 2019 sob a orientação da Dra. Ana Sofia Bicas Machado, num total de 456 horas. O estágio curricular teve como principais objetivos promover a nossa formação profissionalizante; proporcionar a aplicação de diferentes abordagens teóricas aos diversos contextos de prática psicológica; desenvolver competências práticas que vão de encontro com as diversas abordagens teóricas que foram estudadas ao longo de todo o percurso académico; e, por fim, promover o contato e a aprendizagem de boas práticas, de forma a desenvolver competências profissionais adequadas e autónomas. No presente relatório é apresentado uma caracterização da instituição onde decorreu o estágio curricular, a descrição da função do psicólogo e neuropsicólogo na instituição, o levantamento das necessidades, a descrição das atividades realizadas na instituição, nomeadamente as atividades de avaliação psicológica, de intervenção psicológica individual e em grupo, e por fim, as ações de formação.
- Are consumers willing to pay the green premium price? : the factors affecting the green purchase decisionPublication . Henriques, Mariana Dias Neves Gorjão; Fernandes, Daniel Von Der HeydeEnvironmental concern is one of the most pressing issues facing the world today. However, despite these growing concerns, consumers frequently purchase harmful products, which could be due to some tradeoffs that green products imply, such as higher prices, reduced performance, and lower convenience. This research aims to examine individual willingness to pay a premium price for green products in five categories, and the demographic characteristics and tradeoffs that may affect purchase decision making. An online questionnaire was conducted, which obtained 452 valid responses, from Portuguese consumers. The survey simulated a buying scenario where participants needed to choose between green alternatives and the counter non-green alternatives. Also, it was collected respondents’ demographic data, their sensitivity to the price, environment, and political ideology. After the data collection, it was statistically analysed and interpreted using a multivariate statistical analysis, which included: chi-square test, linear regression model, and t-test. Overall, this research has found that demographic data alone is not a good predictor of the green consumer profile. The adoption of green products varies according to their category and their benefits. Price, convenience and performance are still the predominant decision factors.
- The impact of credit ratings on the decision-making process behind capital structuresPublication . Gomes, Joana de Oliveira; Bonfim, Diana Carina Ribeiro GuimarãesThe role of credit ratings in influencing capital structure decisions has generated a lot of discussion. This thesis intends to examine whether credit ratings directly impact the marginal financing behaviors of U.S. firms. Kisgen (2006) engaged in an earlier seminal discussion of this topic. His arguments on the discrete costs associated with credit rating levels suggest that firms near a credit rating change issue less debt relative to equity than firms farther away from a rating change. This concept became henceforth known as the Credit Rating-Capital Structure (CR-CS) hypothesis. Through the empirical analysis of 14,037 firm-years between 2001 and 2017, our work confirms Kisgen’s (2006) findings that firms with a plus or minus rating have a propensity to use less debt relative to equity, than firms in the middle, supporting the CR-CS hypothesis. However, this significance seems to be mainly driven by the minus designation. Therefore, firms with an upgrade potential do not appear to significantly adjust their debt issuing patterns. Moreover, we confirm that firms are typically most concerned about broad rating levels, in which the access to the commercial paper is affected. Lastly, we find that credit ratings have a significant effect on capital structures, both during and prior to the financial crisis periods. Overall, we provide evidence that the potential costs of downgrades directly impact capital structure decisions, and managers are thus likely to be concerned with ratings-triggered costs.