Browsing by Issue Date, starting with "2024-05-08"
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- Effectiveness of turnaround and restructuring initiatives : a sector-specific analysis in the US marketPublication . Brichetto, Matteo; Reis, RicardoThis dissertation delves into the dynamics of the restructuring and turnaround initiatives made by the US firms from January 2000 until December 2022. The objective of this thesis is to understand if the strategies adopted by the 1.848 distressed companies observed have been effective in the recovery process and which are the differences between the different sectors. Utilizing, at first, a logit regression model, the dissertation aims to understand if and how the strategies considered affected the probability of recovery of the firms. Once the relationship has been established, a linear regression model, that look at the change in the Z-score, has been used to capture the magnitude of the effect caused by the restructuring processes. The findings highlight that, in most of the cases, the restructuring strategies adopted tend to have more a negative rather than a positive effect on the probability of recovering. The magnitude of the strategies, instead, tend to vary among the different industries with some sectors that show quite an important detrimental effect of some restructuring initiatives. To better comprehend in overall terms how the different turnaround processes influenced the US market, both regressions have been run with all the sample, obtaining results in line with what obtained in the sector-specific analyses, with some minor differences. This thesis contributes to the study of the turnaround mechanism, with the goal of helping future research to achieve results that might be the starting point of the managerial decisions that are crucial in periods of distress.
- The influence of unfunded pension liabilities as a potential risk of financial distressPublication . Huber, Stefan; Reis, RicardoThis thesis investigates the influence of unfunded pension liabilities on the probability of default for corporations. By employing empirical models like the Altman Z- & Z''-Score and the Ohlson O-Score, the study assesses the effects of unfunded pension liabilities on the probability of default among U.S. corporations listed in the S&P 500 from 2006 to 2022. This period is significant due to the implementation of the Pension Protection Act in 2006, which mandated companies to fully fund their pension obligations within a shortened timeframe. The research methodology includes a fixed-effects regression model with variables indicative of pension management to analyse the impact on corporate default risk. The thesis presents a comprehensive review of corporate pension schemes' history, the Pension Protection Act's regulatory context, and the empirical models employed. The analysis distinguishes the varying impacts of unfunded pension liabilities on the probability of default across industries, providing new insights into this under-researched area. Key findings suggest that while unfunded pension liabilities significantly influence the probability of default in some industries, their overall impact across the broad spectrum of industries is nuanced and varies depending on specific industry characteristics, the viewed model, and financial practices. The study contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the complex relationship between pension liabilities and corporate financial health, offering both theoretical and practical implications for managing financial distress risk in corporations.
- From bids to bliss : achieving campaign excellence with ML and data insightsPublication . Schneider, Robin; Paiva, NunoTelecommunication companies encounter challenges, such as regulatory requirements, fast-paced technological changes, high competition, and customer expectations. One of their biggest challenges is the efficient allocation of their marketing budget. This study delves into three modeling approaches for optimizing budget allocation across four digital marketing channels to increase total sales. Our goal is to increase sales and transform digital marketing practices in the telecommunications sector by implementing AI-powered budget allocation methods. The three modeling approaches are a baseline (Random Forest) machine learning model leveraging the automatic creation of multivariate time-series data, as well as two Marketing Mix Models (MMM): one pipeline that implements the ideas from Meta’s Robyn framework and the other using Google’s Lightweight-MMM framework. We aim to gain maximum data insights from models offering diverse perspectives and approaches. We evaluate the models based on their ability to predict total sales, analyzing different performance metrics such as RMSE and R 2. Additionally, we assess the models for their practical relevance regarding their utilization for the marketing budget allocation. One important discovery is the significant impact of Channel 0 on total sales. However, the models only capture some of the dynamics and interactions between the marketing channels. The LightweightMMM model achieved the best performance, with a R2 of 0.666 on unseen data. Therefore, we recommend a further development of the MMM approaches in this study. Also, because a MMM provides detailed data insights for long-term budget allocation and captures the crucial carryover and saturation effect evident in digital marketing campaigns.
- The nostalgia algorithm : examining the interplay of hauntology, technology, and collective memory in the anthropocenePublication . Hershey, Maya; Sá, Cristina Fernandes Alves deThe essence of this research revolves around anthropos as an archetype of melancholia, positioned as the universal subject at the center of all contemplations. This anthropocentric perspective has led humans to a false sense of centrality, grappling with deep anxieties in a rapidly deteriorating world. Anthropos embodies a reductionist paradigm that favors a universal, technologically driven future in pursuit of Promethean absolution. This research foregrounds the ancient narrative underpinning our current technological ethos and highlights the melancholia stemming from the dichotomy of such discourse. Anthropos, in its planetary reach, amplified by AI and capitalism's extractive mechanisms, faces a critical juncture as the planet continues to respond. This collective identity, central to anthropos, has laden humanity with profound environmental guilt. In the process, the richness of pluralistic perspectives and injustices are lost, subsumed under a universal, homogenized identity. This loss engenders a nostalgic torment, not merely for what has been lost, but for the inability to recall in the midst of a complete reconfiguration of social memory. Algorithms restructure the world's plurality into alien computational ontologies, diluting memories of what once was. This phenomenon is what we term the 'nostalgia algorithm.' Confronted with this technological constraint, humanity is thrust towards an inevitable fate, embodied in the culmination of anthropos. This monstrous figure, having reached its peak without deviation from its path, signifies widespread destruction as a form of self-preservation. In this ultimate amalgamation, all histories, possibilities, and pluralities implode into a singularity.
- How can synthetic data generation techniques, enhance the lift accuracy of churn prediction models in imbalanced datasets from the telecommunications sector?Publication . Salii, Jill; Paiva, NunoThe thesis aimed to examine the efficiency of synthetic data in increasing the predictive abilities of churn prediction models within imbalanced datasets, particularly in the telecommunication industry. Given that imbalanced datasets were a significant obstacle in the telecommunication sector, the study assessed the impact of including synthetic data in addressing the imbalance. Various synthetic data generation methods, including SMOTENC, ADASYN, TVAE, and CTGAN, were applied to a real-world dataset to achieve this. The goal was to determine to what extent synthetic data could help overcome data imbalance and enhance the predictive capabilities of classification models. Although a significant improvement in the lift score was not achieved, valuable insights into the challenges that come with utilizing synthetically created data were gained. The research highlighted the importance of a consistent and transparent data-cleaning strategy and the need for customized approaches to synthetic data models. The limitations encountered during the study were also discussed, including the use of a limited number of synthetic data models and the dependency on the quality of synthetic data derived from the original data quality. Finally, the thesis offered valuable insights into future research and the practical application of common synthetic data methods on imbalanced real-world datasets in the telco industry.
- Melted wax, unbroken wings : a comprehensive study on the practical uses of creative storytelling within the context of the fight or flight setting of aviation crisesPublication . Mendes, Diogo; Reis, RicardoStorytelling is here proposed as a viable strategy within the context of business adaptive strategies in crisis, as a method that makes use of inherent qualities and assumption within the human psyche and its reception to the use of narrative and story for sensemaking and guidance during crises. To this end, Melted Wax, Unbroken Wings sets out with the intention of uncovering to what extent storytelling is a viable method to be employed by organizations and leaders during turbulent times, where a special focus is given to the aviation industry as a medium of grounding the theory discussed into practicality, and give context to already practiced uses of creative storytelling in the industry. This paper made use of a large body of academic literature, used in collecting accounts and strategies for organizational storytelling during crises events, as well as first-hand accounts and case studies on its usage in the commercial airline industry. The study concluded that storytelling goes beyond viable as a tool to be used by organizations during crises, with vast support and numerous accounts of its implementation proving successful, with the consensus of many aligning with the idea that one cannot opt out of organizational storytelling; instead, they can passively follow emerging narratives or actively shape them toward desired goals and objectives.
- Equity valuation of Iberdrola S.A.Publication . Luís, Dylan; Kalogirou, FaniThe purpose of this dissertation is to value the giant Spanish electric utility company, Iberdrola S.A. The valuation is supported by in-depth industry and company analysis, and is based on the Adjusted Present Value (APV) method. Three scenarios are designed using the industry forecasts provided by the International Energy Agency and Iberdrola9s historical developments. The APV method is complemented by a relative valuation based on current trading multiples observed for Iberdrola9s peers. The APV yields an equity share value of €12.43 in the base scenario (a 15.45% upside). Based on the trading multiples the company is valued at a premium compared to its peers. However, I am convinced that at the current price (€10.77) Iberdrola9s stock is below its fair value based on the detailed and forward-looking analysis performed in the APV and the promising outlook for renewables in this decade. Consequently, I conclude with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of €11.98 (+11.25% upside), slightly more conservative than the mean target prices of analysts following the stock (€12.19).
- A segurança nacional e a segurança económica no quadro das relações entre Portugal e a Coreia do Sul : relatório de estágio na embaixada de Portugal em SeulPublication . Gil, Carolina Ferreira; Hernandez, Beatriz PuertasEste relatório apresenta a interação entre progresso tecnológico, segurança económica e desenvolvimento nacional, com base numa perspetiva única adquirida durante o estágio na Embaixada Portuguesa em Seul, na Coreia do Sul. Investiga o empenho da Coreia do Sul na inovação tecnológica e na investigação e desenvolvimento (I&D), explorando os investimentos estratégicos em sectores-chave, como os semicondutores, ao mesmo tempo que revela a busca da liderança tecnológica do país, essencial na sua estratégia económica e de segurança nacional. O relatório investiga ainda as iniciativas da Coreia do Sul no sector da defesa, onde a tecnologia é aproveitada para modernizar as suas capacidades militares e melhorar a sua posição global - os dados recolhidos apontam para uma tendência tecno-nacionalista. Ao longo do relatório, a análise sublinha a relação simbiótica entre o progresso tecnológico e a segurança económica, retratando a Coreia do Sul como um exemplo de procura do desenvolvimento nacional através da inovação tecnológica.
- Influence of celebrity endorsement on Gen Z consumers’ adoption of non-alcoholic beveragesPublication . Josephine, König; Borges, MónicaThis paper is about Gen Z consumers and the factors which influence them to adopt healthier habits in the form of non-alcoholic beverages. Our research focuses on Gen Z’s health awareness, and endorsement through a celebrity, and analyse their influence on non-alcoholic beverages’ adoption. The purpose of this study is to help provide a better understanding of Gen Z and their alcohol consumption habits, in order to help companies implement marketing initiatives for non-alcoholic beverage companies. The analysis was based on a mediation model, setting into relation both Gen Z’s health awareness and celebrity endorsement to assess their impact. An online survey was run to gather information about Gen Z individuals who consume alcohol, which resulted in 157 valid responses. The findings revealed that an increased health awareness influences Gen Z consumers to adopting non-alcoholic beverages, whilst celebrity endorsement did not show an impact on its own. A limitation to this study was the video utilized to test celebrity endorsement; it showed a biased opinion from a Gen Z celebrity who endorsed sobriety, not only non-alcoholic beverage consumption. Future research ought to observe Gen Z’s alcoholic beverages consumption behaviour development, to adapt marketing initiatives for healthier substitutes.
- Consumer adoption of innovation : the impact of AI on e-satisfaction in the cosmetic sector with a focus on GenZ consumersPublication . Petri, Kiara Kristin; Borges, MónicaIn the highly competitive landscape of the cosmetic industry, the shift towards valuing the entire shopping experience has become paramount. Brands are forced to build interactive relationships with their consumers, which requires a new way of strategic thinking. The rise of AI brings new opportunities to address this change. In fact, the integration of AI into E-commerce, is setting new standards of consumer expectations towards their shopping experience and shapes their E-satisfaction. As digital natives, GenZ represents an important demographic population for analyzing the acceptance of AI, and consequently the impact of AI on GenZ's E-satisfaction when shopping online for cosmetics. Through a comprehensive literature review on the topics of AI, marketing, shopping experience, and E-satisfaction, hypotheses were formulated, and variables were identified to form the basis of our conceptual framework. A mono-method approach was chosen in which primary data was collected from 168 valid GenZ respondents via an online survey. Descriptive statistics and statistical tests (simple and multiple linear regression) using SPSS, were conducted to identify the variables impacting GenZs E-satisfaction. The results indicate a positive correlation between the use of AI and GenZ E-satisfaction, especially in hedonic online shopping contexts where personalization promotes the inclusivity of cosmetic brands. In addition, the study shows a positive impact of AI on GenZ's emotions during the online shopping experience. Overall, these findings provide important insights into the evolving landscape of online cosmetics shopping and underscore the need for brands to revise their strategies to provide experiences that go beyond the product's offering.
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