Browsing by Issue Date, starting with "2023-10-17"
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- Segmentation of French local authorities within Agence France Locale “Confidential”Publication . Brahmi, Alexandre; Schluter, ChristianThis report describes my work placement at Agence France Locale (AFL). This internship, lasting around 6 months - between April and September 2023 - finalizes the curriculum of the Mastère 2 Economy – cursus Econometry, Big Data and Statistics- and the Master of Economy at Magistère d'Aix-Marseille School of Economics and Catolica Lisbon as part of the double degree in Economics and aims to apply the concepts studied in class in a professional context. In this way, I discovered the banking environment, and the concepts specific to the local public finance sector within this company. Working in the "Prudentiel et Risques Financiers" department of the "Direction des Engagements et des Risques", I was recruited as a Data Scientist and supervised by Pierre Olivier CONTASSOT to work on the segmentation of French municipalities. My mission was to develop a clustering methodology aimed at profiling local authorities according to their financial characteristics. The purpose of this study is to support the Commitments division in assessing credit risk for new membership applications, and to provide a better understanding of AFL's customers and shareholders, and more generally of the French municipal landscape.
- Student fees and recruitment to higher education : parents' income, education, and the choice between private and public higher education in NorwayPublication . Nicolau, Jéssica Patrícia Costa; Sørensen, RuneThis paper examines the influence of parental characteristics, specifically income and education, on the likelihood of a student attending a private institution such as BI Norwegian Business School. The analysis begins by identifying the factors that are relevant in the decision-making process for choosing a university, and it explores the impact of tuition fees on this decision. The primary focus of the study is to understand the influence of parents' education on their income and subsequently how parents' income affects the likelihood of attending BI. This relationship is established using a simple Linear Probability Model with Education Fixed Effects, as well as a Logit Regression Model to validate the results. The study reveals a positive impact of parents' education on their income, with a more pronounced effect on fathers compared to mothers. On average, fathers tend to have higher levels of education and income. When examining the influence of parents' income on the probability of attending BI, it is once again found a positive relationship, with a stronger effect for fathers (3.1%) compared to mothers (0.9%) according to the LPM. Lastly, the thesis compares bachelor’s students with master’s students and finds that the latter group tends to have parents with higher levels of education and higher earnings in comparison to bachelor’s students.
- Do financiamento sustentável : doing well by doing goodPublication . Toledo, Manuel António Zambelli Daniel de Almeida; Martins, Paulo Câmara Pires dos SantosA comunidade financeira tem vindo, progressivamente, a reconhecer a importância do movimento Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”). Contudo, já não é suficiente que as sociedades se foquem exclusivamente na prossecução do lucro; devendo, também, prosseguir objetivos de sustentabilidade. Esta mudança de paradigma abriu portas ao desenvolvimento, no âmbito das finanças sustentáveis, de novas iniciativas e produtos financeiros, nomeadamente as green bonds, as social bonds, as sustainability-linked bonds, os green loans, os sustainability linkedloans e os social loans. Esta dissertação procede a uma análise sistemática das modalidades de financiamento e respetivos aspetos estruturais e perturbações contratuais, como instrumentos para alcançar uma economia hipocarbónica. O progresso nesta área, no entanto, ainda está num estágio inicial de desenvolvimento. Consequentemente, avanços regulatórios e legislativos são, mais do que nunca, necessários para que se atinjam progressos significativos na transição para um futuro mais sustentável.
- Economic missions within the Rhône regional public finance departmentPublication . Simonnot, Elise Sabine Huguette; Paraponaris, AlainRecent changes in the economic situation, such as COVID 19, the energy crisis and the real estate crisis in France, have led business leaders to encounter cash flow difficulties. The French state's intervention in the economy became necessary at the dawn of the COVID 19 crisis. Since then, they have multiplied, but have also evolved towards targeted interventions depending on the business sector and the company's situation. During my apprenticeship in public administration, my main missions focused on the financial analysis of companies in the Rhône Alpes region. In particular, in order to keep a close eye on changes in the sector, but also to set up a predictive methodology to anticipate the financial difficulties of certain companies. The aim of my missions is to put in place a strategy to accompany companies and directly support the economy. The projection and analysis work enabled me to identify two important conclusions that provides better medium term understanding of the economic environment to the department I have worked with. On the one hand, my results allow us to identify sectors currently in great difficulty, such as construction, real estate and transport. This result is a perfect consequence of recent economic trends such as rising interest rates and raw material prices. Secondly, my results allow us to identify, through analysis of accounting documents, the financial indicators that have been most affected since the COVID 19 crisis. By identifying, the most troubled financial indicators enabled the administration to implement future efficient, targeted government measures.
- REDUNIQ Insights 2.0 : market analysis of sectorial infograpichsPublication . Barban, Alessandro; Xavier, RuteGiven the increasing amount of data that is entangled in modern society, several companies have realized the power of information and have started to perform data analysis. The ability to extract insights and value from data has become a critical competitive advantage for businesses and can significantly alter existing value propositions. REDUNIQ Insights is a recently developed division of REDUNIQ that is just beginning to operate in the field of data monetization. The products offered by the division presently have a significantly low number of subscribers relative to REDUNIQ’s client base. This paper reflects consulting project carried out for REDUNIQ Insights and strives to understand the reasons behind the low level of subscribers of Sectorial Infographics as well as to identify a specific segment that should be primarily target. Although the research was severely affected by the limited sample size available, it can be regarded as a valid exploratory study capable of providing general insights on the REDUNIQ client base, as well as suggestions for product improvement. Overall, what emerged from the study is that the service seems to be perceived more as a “nice to have” than a valuable service for the B2B market, and the key-factor that seems determine the really low likelihood to purchase is the mismatch between the perceived value and the current price. Moreover, the low level of REDUNIQ Insights’ salience among REDUNIQ’s clients as well as the services provided by SIBS analytics constitute two primary threats to the success of the product.
- AdvanceCare : time for pet : launching a pet health insurance in the Portuguese market : study analysisPublication . Carvalho, Francisco Estêvão Gomes Apoliano; Xavier, RuteIn this master thesis, it was elaborated a set of analysis and recommendations for AdvanceCare, na insurance company based in Portugal, that is onde of the leading insurers in the non-life human insurance market. The objective was to study the possibility of the company entering the national Pet Health insurance market, along with the strategy for such implementation. This thesis offers a comprehensive analysis of the Portuguese pet health insurance market, shedding light on its historical context, current dynamics, and key insurance strategies. Over the years, pet ownership in Portugal has evolved from tradition to mainstream culture, with an increasing number of registered pets. Drawing international comparisons with Sweden, the UK and others, this research provides insights into Portugal's burgeoning position in the pet insurance landscape. Additionally, a statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the viability of AdvanceCare pursuing this business concept. The Portuguese pet health insurance market shows significant potential, catering to diverse preferences. It is evolving to meet the dynamic needs of pet owners and presents opportunities for further growth.
- The impact of short-time work in times of the Covid 19 pandemic : the case of Germany in 2021Publication . Teppler, John Axel; Silva, JoanaThe Covid 19 pandemic affected humanity worldwide in all areas of daily life to an extent comparable to no previous crisis. From today's point of view, it is possible to formulate a retrospective analysis of the impact and scope of the economic consequences for society. In this context, the Government of Germany introduced the short-time work (STW) program to mitigate the economic consequences. This paper examines the impact of this program. In particular, it assesses whether the program had a significant effect in strengthening the labor and domestic markets in 2021. The analyses focus on the contact-intensive sectors of retail and hospitality. The exogenous effect of the associated labor demand shock on unemployment and employment rates is measured using shift-share metrics. This work extends the research of Aiyar and Dao (2021) and confirms that the support program continued to be a significant tool for saving jobs and stabilizing the domestic market in 2021.
- How do financial distress events affect bank returns and what is the role of capital related or bank specific variables in this context?Publication . Tektas, Yusuf Berkant; Schliephake, EvaThis thesis analysis the impact of financial distressed banks on the stock return of the banking sector using event study methodology (ESM). In our thesis we are only going to consider financial distressed banks which either write down their Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds or convert their AT1 bonds into equity. The write down or conversion of AT1’s happen to be terms of the acquisition of the financial distressed bank in most of our selected events. Because we want to estimate the abnormal returns (ARs) for various securities over time, we are going to use the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) approach. Furthermore, we are going to use regression analysis to investigate the relationship between the previously calculated cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of banks as dependent variable, our control variables and our variables of interest. The event study results present that the selected events have statistically significant negative impacts on banking sectors stock returns. The regression results show us that our variables of interest including the presence of AT1 bonds in banks assets and Tier 2 ratio do not have statistically significant impacts on the dependent variable, whereas the capital adequacy ratio is statistically significant. Our bank-specific control variables size and profit show statistically significant impacts on the CAR of banks, whereas the variables capital and efficiency have statistically insignificant impacts. Our event study results and our regression results are overall robust.
- From an English course to a professional journey : creating a new path in the education marketPublication . Somma, Sofia; Reis, RicardoThis research investigates the possibility of offering a new course that combines linguistic content with a more specialized component (such as soft skills or technical competencies) by the company EF Education First, a linguistic provider. This study focuses to the specific target of individuals aged 18-25 years old and the goal is to understand which combination of soft skills and language or computer science and language courses would be the most attractive to the target population. This study opens with a case study analysis, followed by benchmark analysis, and then proceeds with a qualitative analysis based on semi-structured interviews. These interviews involve not only EF’s managers but also HR managers from two non-competitive companies. The objective is to understand the skills required for junior profiles. Finally, the investigation moves on to a quantitative analysis of a questionnaire, using SPSS application. First and foremost, the concept of a skill gap was analyzed. It has emerged that over the majority of the sample do not believe they have acquired the necessary skills to enter the job market, which represents a good starting point for the purpose of the analysis. Secondly, using a cluster analysis, the sample was divided into clusters, identifying the Socratic learners as the cluster to target. It was found that the Socratic learners prefer the combination of language and soft skills (also giving a positive rating to technical skills + language), in-person and with a maximum course duration of 2 months, with the option to choose course modules.
- Equity valuation : SpotifyPublication . Giusta, Giuseppe Carriere Della; Martins, José Carlos TudelaThe aim of this dissertation is to determine a target price for the shares of Spotify, a Swedish streaming media audio platform, and provide an investment recommendation. The stock has been very volatile in the last 2 years, passing from all time high value of €315 to all time low of €78. Since its IPO it is down of 12,86%. It is therefore of interest to understand if the stock is now trading at a fair price. Three valuation methods are presented, the discounted cash-flow method, comparable company analysis, and customer lifetime value. Within the DCF, a 10 year forecast was computed with the model estimating financials in the period 2023 to 2033. The analyst has made assumptions that best fit the current macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, considering, for example, increases and impact of inflation, and digitalization of developing countries. The discount rate used was the Weighted Average Cost of Capital using the Capital Asset Pricing Model method to forecast the cost of equity. Within the comparable company analysis, multiples utilized were computed on a forward-looking and backward-looking basis, these being: EV/Sales; EV/EBITDA; P/S; EV/GP. With regards to Customer Lifetime value, the mode was run on the period 2020-2040, with forecast of Spotify financials extended by 7 years compared to the DCF. The research results in a SELL investment recommendation, with a target price set of €118,18, representing a 9,18% overvaluation relative to the price the stock was trading at on July 27th, 2023 (€130,91).
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