CUBE - Contribuições em Revistas Científicas / Contribution to Journals
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- O desvio deflacionista na ausência de cooperação internacional em contexto de incertezaPublication . Torres, Francisco Silva; Teles, Pedro Pinho deThis note is an extension of Macedo’s two-country static equilibrium model (1985) on international coordination of economic policies under flexible exchange rates. We test the influence of uncertainty on the (in) deflationary bias that characterizes the non-cooperative Nash-Cournot equilibrium. The gap between this solution and the cooperative one is shortened. Both countries cooperate tacitly against «nature» minimizing the involved risk.
- Sobre a adesão a uma união monetária com liderança e mobilidade perfeita de capitaisPublication . Torres, Francisco S.Como solução para as ineficiências geradas externamente (pela falta de cooperação entre os países grandes) e intemamente (pela falta de cooperação entre as autoridades de política e os agentes económicos) é possível adoptar regras externas que substituam os mecanismos reputacionais e cooperativos desejados. A adesão a uma regra cambial constitui o exemplo de regra aqui analisado. As condições de funcionamento deste efeito credibilidade dependem da capacidade de ajustamento da economia a choques externos dentro do sistema e da consistência dos objectivos de política intema com a manutenção de uma paridade (quase) fixa para a taxa de câmbio. Um regime de câmbios ajustáveis, com as características do actual Sistema Monetário Europeu, pode no entanto funcionar, no processo de convergência (estabilização e liberalização) de uma economia, como um mecanismo disciplinador credível.
- Testing the rationality of expectations using aggregate dataPublication . Modesto, LeonorIn this paper it is argued that tests of rationality of expections based on aggregate data, specifically when the aggregate expectations series come from business survey data, are not conclusive. In fact it is shown that even when individual agents have rational expectations, aggregate expectations series and aggregate prediction errors should not pass the traditional rationality tests. This can account for the observed persistent correlation in deviations of real GNP from trend in a Lucas-supply function without the need of a lagged output variable. But it also suggests that the macroeconomic implications of rational expectations will be weakened.
- Wages, productivity and efficiency: an empirical study for the Portuguese manufacturing sectorPublication . Modesto, Leonor; Monteiro, Manuel LeiteIn this paper we provide an axplanation for the relative flexibility of the Portuguese labour market. We find that in Portugal, contrary to what happens in the rest of Europe, unemployment exerts a significant downward pressure on manufacturing wages. We obtain a long-run Phillips curve where the labour share (adjusted for the minimum wage) is found to respond significantly to the slack in the labour market. This accounts for the low level of unemployment and small unemployment persistence registered in Portugal, when compared with other countries. The theoretical framework used is a bargaining model, where unions and firms try to optimize their goals.
- The effects of CSF 1994-1999 on the Portuguese economyPublication . Modesto, Leonor; Neves, Pedro DuarteThis paper tries to assess the macroeconomic effects of the CSF 1994-99 on the Portuguese economy using the macroeconomic HERMIN-Portugal model. To that end, after briefly presenting the main characteristics of the model and providing an overview of the Portuguese CSF programmes, we offer a detailed description of the methodology used in the quantification of the effects of those CSF programmes. The contribution to growth of these programmes, both separately and jointly, is analysed and compared with a stylised projection of the Portuguese economy used as benchmark. A major novelty of the current work is the consideration of supply effects. The simulation exercises performed show that die CSF 1994-99 package has potentially important effects on the Portuguese economy. This work suggests that the injection of the CSF funds could trigger a response pattern that would increase die level of GDP by more than amount injected.
- Business cycles in a small open economyPublication . Correia, Isabel; Neves, João C.; Rebelo, SergioThis paper discusses a dynamic model that is consistent with the main empirical regularities of economic fluctuations in open economies. While other models in this class have relied on non-separable preferences or finite horizons to generate a realistic consumption volatility, we show that there is a simple class of time separable preferences that is consistent with the cyclical volatilities of the components of the national income accounts identity as well as with the countercyclical character of the balance of trade.
- Carga da doença atribuível à hipercolesterolémia em PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Borges, Margarida; Costa, João; Carneiro, António VazAs doenças cardiovasculares são a principal causa de morte em Portugal, na generalidade dos países desenvolvidos e de facto em todo o mundo. A hipercolesterolémia é um dos principais factores de risco destas doenças. Quais são os ganhos potenciais de saúde que se podem obter ao reduzir a prevalência da hipercolesterolémia na população portuguesa? Como os estimar e quantificar? Os estudos da carga da doença têm como objectivo medir e avaliar o impacto de uma doença ou conjunto de doenças nos níveis globais de saúde. Apesar de não constituírem uma avaliação económica strictu sensu, na medida em que não são estudadas intervenções específicas, os estudos da carga da doença fornecem um retrato rigoroso da situação de um dado problema de saúde, da sua magnitude, assim como do espaço a gerar por políticas de saúde e intervenções preventivas ou correctoras, na indução de potenciais melhorias. Este artigo reporta os resultados de um estudo da carga da doença associada à hipercolesterolémia em Portugal, calibrado para dados do ano 2000. Neste estudo, a carga da doença é estimada através da componente atribuível à hipercolesterolémia dos anos de vida perdidos prematuramente ajustados pela incapacidade (os DALYs - Disability Adjusted Life Years).
- Custos da doença atribuíveis à hipercolesterolémia em PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Borges, Margarida; Costa, João; Oliveira, Eduardo; David, Cláudio; Carneiro, António VazCardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death in Portugal, in developed countries and, indeed, worldwide. Hypercholesterolemia is a major risk factor for these diseases, including ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral vascular disease. This paper reports the results of a study of the cost of illness associated with hypercholesterolemia and the costs directly attributable to hypercholesterolemia in Portugal, estimated from data for the year 2000. The results indicate that the cost of the health care provided to deal with illnesses associated with hypercholesterolemia was € 735.9 million (direct costs) and the costs of lost production due to disability of patients of working age was € 74.82 million (indirect costs). The costs attributable to hypercholesterolemia, those that would be avoided if hypercholesterolemia were completely eliminated, amount to € 358.84 million in direct costs and € 28.31 million in indirect costs. These results confirm that hypercholesterolemia is a source of major health costs. This means that hypercholesterolemia deserves special attention from those who formulate health policy and should be given priority in implementing such policies.
- Cleaning up the water law of British Columbia: a problemistic approach to rule changesPublication . Schulz, Martin; Jennings, P. Devereaux; Patient, DavidThis study develops a problemistic (i.e., problem-oriented) approach to explore legal rule evolution. We draw on theories of organizations - in particular theories about organizational rules, but also theories from neighboring disciplines - to formulate hypotheses and develop models of the hazard rate of legal rule change. We propose that the evolution of a law can be seen as an interplay between rules and problems, and explore how changes to law can be produced by three problem-related mechanisms: problem attraction, problem recognition, and problem engagement. Our study suggests that the problemistic perspective can shed new light on the evolution of laws and of social institutions in general.
- Tax rate variability and public spending as sources of indeterminacyPublication . Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Modesto, Leonor; Seegmuller, ThomasWe consider a constant returns to scale, one sector economy with segmented asset markets of the Woodford type. We analyze the role of public spending, financed by labor income and consumption taxation, on the emergence of indeterminacy. We find that what is relevant for indeterminacy is the variability of the distortion introduced by government intervention. We show that the degree of public spending externalities in preferences affects the combinations between the tax rate and its variability under which indeterminacy occurs. Moreover, we find that consumption taxes can lead to local indeterminacy when asset markets are segmented.