Browsing by Author "Santos, Carlos"
Now showing 1 - 10 of 17
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- An Overlapping Generations Model of the Savings Rate Decline: The Case of PortugalPublication . Oliveira, Maria Alberta; Santos, CarlosUsing an overlapping generations model, we argue that a decline in the savings rate, such as the one that has been observed in Portugal over the past 30 years, may be motivated by an increase in the discount factor. This is a standard result for macroeconomic models with agents that live for two periods. However, we innovate in proxying empirically the discount factor by a number of items, such as the fertility rate and the marriage rate. A decline in these suggests that people value the present over the future. As such the discount factor increases. As it turns out, both variables are empirically significant in our econometric analysis and have the correct sign. Furthermore, Ricardian Equivalence effects seem to be absent from the savings behavior of Portuguese households, as increases in public debt are met with decreases in savings by households. Government expenditure is not being perceived as levying higher taxes in the future. Finally, we also show that precautionary saving motivated by the increase in the unemployment rate is only relevant for rates below 6,5%. Above this threshold, the decline in savings due to the decline in income is estimated to be the dominant effect, which becomes dramatic when we consider the current rate of nearly 16%. Portuguese households are simply unable to save currently. The empirical implications of our analysis are staggering, as they question the effectiveness of any austerity program that does rely on higher taxes: these are a tantamount to lower savings rate, which in turn increase country default probabilities, as measured in CDS and bond markets.
- Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modellingPublication . Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, Maria AlbertaThis article has three different motivations. Firstly, we wish to contribute to the debate on whether French inflation has been persistent since the mid-eighties. Empirical evidence in this domain has been mixed. We use the standard method of testing for breaks in the mean of the inflation series to conclude whether possible unit root findings are the result of neglected breaks. Then, we build standard autoregressive representations of inflation, using an automatic general-to-specific approach. We conclude against inflation persistence in the sample period, and the point estimates of persistence we obtain are several percentage points below those achieved with other break tests and model selection methods. Moreover, our final model is congruent. Secondly, we provide the first empirical application of the new impulse saturation break test. The resulting estimates of the break dates are in line with other literature findings and have a sound economic meaning, confirming the good performance the test had revealed in theoretical and simulation studies. Finally, we also illustrate the shortcomings of the Bai–Perron test when applied to a small sample with high serial correlation. Indeed, we show the Bai–Perron break dates’ estimates would not allow us to build a congruent autoregressive representation of inflation.
- Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regressionPublication . Santos, Carlos; Hendry, David F.; Johansen, SorenWe consider selecting a regression model, using a variant of the generalto- specific algorithm in PcGets, when there are more variables than observations. We look at the special case where the variables are single impulse dummies, one defined for each observation. We show that this setting is unproblematic if tackled appropriately, and obtain the asymptotic distribution of the mean and variance in a location-scale model, under the null that no impulses matter. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the null distributions and suggest extensions to highly non-normal cases
- Automatic Tests for Super ExogeneityPublication . Hendry, David; Santos, CarlosWe develop a new automatically-computable test for super exogeneity, using a variant of general-to-specific modelling. Based on the recent developments in impulse saturation applied to marginal models under the null that no impulses matter, we select the significant impulses for testing in the conditional. The approximate analytical non-centrality of the test is derived for a failure of invariance and for a failure of weak exogeneity when there is a shift in the marginal model. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the nominal significance levels under the null, and power against the two alternatives
- Discriminating mean and variance shiftsPublication . Santos, CarlosA two-stage procedure based on impulse saturation is suggested to distinguish mean and variance shifts. The resulting zero-mean innovation test statistic has a non standard distribution, with a nuisance parameter. Hence, simulation-based critical values are provided for some cases of interest. Monte Carlo evidence reveals the test has good power properties to discriminate mean and variance shifts identified through the impulse saturation break test.
- Impulse saturation break testsPublication . Santos, CarlosWe develop a new class of tests for breaks at unknown dates based on impulse saturation. Theoretical Power is derived for mean and variance shifts. Empirical power is close to theory results. The test performs well in both cases.
- Looking for a break in Spanish Inflation Data in the early eighties and assessing persistencePublication . Mota, Maria Teresa; Cunha, Mariana Alves da; Santos, CarlosUsing the Bai-Perron test, we look for a shift in the conditional mean of an AR representation of Spanish CPI inflation over the period: 1978-2006. It is clear that Spain, as most OECD economies, experienced an inflation slowdown in the early eithgties, which can be related to some policy measures undertook by the government coming out of the 1982 elections. It is shown, that when the break is accounted for, there are no signs of persistence in Spanish CPI inflation.
- Looking for a change point in French monetary policy in the early eightiesPublication . Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, Maria AlbertaWe investigate where, in the early eighties, did a change occur in French monetary policy. The novelty in our treatment of this subject is the use of the impulse saturation break test. The results clearly identify the adoption of the Franc Fort policy as the key change in the period. The resulting econometric model is congruent and reveals no signs of persistence in inflation.
- Market exuberance in sovereign credit default swaps: assessing the EU regulatory framework and trading profit opportunitiesPublication . Oliveira, Maria Alberta; Santos, CarlosSovereign credit default swaps (SCDSs) have been at the core of the Euro Area (EA) debt crisis, particularly in its periphery. Both EU politicians and a wide range of EU academics have asked for tighter regulation of these over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, following similar pressures to the ones that had resulted from the 2008 financial crisis for corporate reference entities. As such, the SCDSs regulatory framework experienced a number of changes from 2009 to 2014, in the EU. This paper provides a seminal assessment on whether these new rules have succeeded in preventing SCDSs exuberance episodes in the EU. Using daily data for 5 years maturity Greek SCDSs, comprising the period between the latest regulatory reform, in September 2014, and mid-March 2015, we find clear evidence of explosive behavior in SCDSs spreads, and even in upfront quotes. The authors take advantage of the new Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b) test for multiple exuberance episodes, which had rarely been used in derivatives markets, and conduct an event study to conclude that Greek elections, in early 2015, and the associated turmoil has led to a surge in momentum trading, with significant potential returns for SCDSs buyers. The regulatory measures aiming at deleveraging these markets, standardizing contracts, and dissociating sovereign and banking risk, do not seem to have achieved their purposes, as the political and financial anxiety in Greece, starting in December 2014, has led to explosive behavior episodes in the market for Greek SCDSs, of the type regulators had tried to avoid.