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Abstract(s)
O objectivo deste estudo passa pelo estudo da manipulação de resultados de bancos europeus. Pretende-se analisar se com o objectivo de ‘mascarar’ o desempenho económico das instituições, os bancos têm incentivo a recorrer à manipulação de resultados, para tal dividimos a nossa amostra em várias subamostras.
Em primeiro lugar recorre-se um modelo probit, para testar se existe mais manipulação de resultados nos anos de 2003 a 2007 ou nos anos de 2008 a 2011. Tenta-se ainda perceber se existe mais manipulação para os países intervencionados ou para os países não intervencionados. Por último, recorre-se da análise de histogramas de distribuições dos resultados líquidos ajustados e da sua variação para testar se os bancos incorreram em tentativas de alisamento de resultados, esta amostra é dividida em bancos intervencionados e não intervencionados.
Nesta dissertação foi utilizada uma amostra de um conjunto de 129 bancos da Europa dos 15 no período de 2003 a 2011. Em particular, foram analisados os resultados líquidos ajustados.
Da análise do modelo probit para os anos de 2008 a 2011 podemos concluir que das variáveis analisadas nenhuma era significativa para o modelo. Para a análise dos países não intervencionados, verificou-se que os bancos com resultados negativos no período anterior têm maior probabilidade de ter resultados positivos no período corrente e que as grandes empresas são mais rentáveis, pelo menos em valor absoluto dos seus resultados, apresentam uma maior propensão para se localizarem no lado direito da distribuição dos resultados. Da análise dos histogramas conclui-se que parece haver indicação de que os bancos de países não intervencionados tendem a efectuar alisamento de resultados.
The aim of this study involves the study of the manipulation of results by European banks. We intend to examine if, with a view to ' mask ' the economic performance of institutions, banks have an incentive to resort to the manipulation of their results, and to do this we divided our sample into several subsamples. Firstly, we apply the probit model to test whether there is more manipulation of results in the years 2003 to 2007 or in the years 2008 to 2011. We also try to perceive if there is more manipulation in countries subjected to intervention or countries that were not subject to intervention. Finally, we analyze histograms of distributions of adjusted net incomes and its variations to test whether banks incurred in attempts of ‘income smoothing’, being this sample divided into intervened and not intervened banks. In this thesis, we used a sample set of 129 banks in the EU-15 countries in the period 2003 to 2011. In particular, we analyzed their adjusted net results. From the analysis of the probit model in the period 2008 to 2011 we conclude that from the studied variables, none were significant to the model. For the analysis of countries that were not subject to intervention, it was found that banks with negative results in the previous period are more likely to have positive results in the current period and that large firms are more profitable, at least in absolute value of the results, have a higher propensity to located on the right of the distribution of results. From analyzing the histograms we conclude that there seems to be an indication that banks from countries that were not subject to intervention tend to perform income smoothing.
The aim of this study involves the study of the manipulation of results by European banks. We intend to examine if, with a view to ' mask ' the economic performance of institutions, banks have an incentive to resort to the manipulation of their results, and to do this we divided our sample into several subsamples. Firstly, we apply the probit model to test whether there is more manipulation of results in the years 2003 to 2007 or in the years 2008 to 2011. We also try to perceive if there is more manipulation in countries subjected to intervention or countries that were not subject to intervention. Finally, we analyze histograms of distributions of adjusted net incomes and its variations to test whether banks incurred in attempts of ‘income smoothing’, being this sample divided into intervened and not intervened banks. In this thesis, we used a sample set of 129 banks in the EU-15 countries in the period 2003 to 2011. In particular, we analyzed their adjusted net results. From the analysis of the probit model in the period 2008 to 2011 we conclude that from the studied variables, none were significant to the model. For the analysis of countries that were not subject to intervention, it was found that banks with negative results in the previous period are more likely to have positive results in the current period and that large firms are more profitable, at least in absolute value of the results, have a higher propensity to located on the right of the distribution of results. From analyzing the histograms we conclude that there seems to be an indication that banks from countries that were not subject to intervention tend to perform income smoothing.