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Abstract(s)
Pode a formação e deflação de bolhas financeiras ser detetada? Para respondermos a esta pergunta, aplicámos o novo teste de Phillips, Shin e Yu (2015a, b), que consiste em identificar vários episódios de exuberância, no índice da bolsa de valores de Xangai (SSEC), assim como também no índice NASDAQ. Esta escolha de índices foi feita baseada em questões pertinentes atuais, tais como, será que estamos perante uma possível bolha financeira em Xangai? Ou então, será que estamos a reviver a bolha “dotcom”?
Os resultados desta aplicação foram positivos, pois constatam a eficácia do teste de Phillips, Shin e Yu (2015a, b), ao identificarem vários episódios de exuberância em diversos períodos de tempo.
Can the formation and deflation of financial bubbles be detected? To answer this question, we applied the new Phillips, Shin e Yu (2015a, b) test, which consist in identifying multiple exuberance episodes, in the Shanghai stock exchange composite index (SSEC), as well as in the NASDAQ index. The choice of these indexes was based on actual pertinent questions, such as, are we facing a possible financial bubble in Shanghai? Or are we reviving the “dotcom” bubble? The results were positive for this application, because they provide evidence of the effectiveness of Phillips, Shin e Yu (2015a, b) test to identify multiple exuberance episodes at different periods of time.
Can the formation and deflation of financial bubbles be detected? To answer this question, we applied the new Phillips, Shin e Yu (2015a, b) test, which consist in identifying multiple exuberance episodes, in the Shanghai stock exchange composite index (SSEC), as well as in the NASDAQ index. The choice of these indexes was based on actual pertinent questions, such as, are we facing a possible financial bubble in Shanghai? Or are we reviving the “dotcom” bubble? The results were positive for this application, because they provide evidence of the effectiveness of Phillips, Shin e Yu (2015a, b) test to identify multiple exuberance episodes at different periods of time.
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Keywords
Bolhas financeiras Bolhas históricas Formação Deflação Crise Raízes explosivas Financial bubbles Historical bubbles Formation Deflation Crisis Explosive roots