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Abstract(s)
gerrymandering é uma prática comum que prevalece na política. Surgiu nos Estados Unidos da América, mas está, atualmente, bastante difundida. A presente dissertação pretende clarificar se estratégias do tipo do gerrymandering são uma realidade em Portugal, dado estas ocorrerem com frequência aquando reformas territoriais. Refletindo no ano de 2013, realizou-se uma importante reorganização administrativa do território das freguesias (RAFT) em Portugal, que levou a alterações na composição das freguesias, o que, por sua vez, levou a alterações no número de eleitores por freguesia. Portanto, foi esta reforma realizada com o intuito de melhorar a eficiência, reduzindo os custos para o país e consequentemente para a União Europeia (UE), ou foi, na verdade, um esquema político ordenado antecipadamente para favorecer certo(s) partido(s). Terá o processo de reorganização territorial sido realizado com uma estratégia de gerrymandering? O distrito do Porto, os seus municípios e as respetivas freguesias foram escolhidos para analisar a existência de enviesamento político, de enviesamento partidário e de gerrymandering. Usando as eleições autárquicas de 2009, 2013 e 2017, e comparando-as através de uma análise de dados e de uma regressão linear, concluímos que o enviesamento partidário existe e é significativo no distrito do Porto. Podemos também afirmar que o gerrymandering ocorreu na sequência do aumento do enviesamento partidário no sentido do partido do governo, tendo este sido beneficiado nas eleições autárquicas de um terço dos municípios pertencentes ao distrito do Porto, em consequência da aplicação da RAFT em 2013.
Gerrymandering is a common practice that prevails in politics. Emerged in the United States of America, it is now widespread. The present dissertation intents to clarify whether gerrymandering alike strategies are a reality in Portugal as they are frequent when there is a territory reform. Reflecting at the year 2013, there was a major reorganization of the territory of the parishes in Portugal (RAFT) which led to changes in the parishes’ composition, which, in turn, let to changes in the number of voters per parish. So, was RAFT a way to improve efficiency, reducing costs for the country and therefore for the European Union (EU), or was it, in fact, just a preordain political scheme to favour some party(ies). Was the process of territorial reorganization carried out with a gerrymandering strategy? Porto’s district, its counties and respective parishes were chosen for the analysis of political bias, partisan bias and gerrymandering. Using the local elections of 2009, 2013 and 2017, and comparing them through a data analysis and a linear regression, we were able to conclude that partisan bias exists and is significant in Porto’s district. We can also say that gerrymandering occurred as a result of the increase in the partisan bias towards the government party, which benefited in the municipal elections of one third of the counties belonging to the district of Porto, as a result of the application of RAFT in 2013.
Gerrymandering is a common practice that prevails in politics. Emerged in the United States of America, it is now widespread. The present dissertation intents to clarify whether gerrymandering alike strategies are a reality in Portugal as they are frequent when there is a territory reform. Reflecting at the year 2013, there was a major reorganization of the territory of the parishes in Portugal (RAFT) which led to changes in the parishes’ composition, which, in turn, let to changes in the number of voters per parish. So, was RAFT a way to improve efficiency, reducing costs for the country and therefore for the European Union (EU), or was it, in fact, just a preordain political scheme to favour some party(ies). Was the process of territorial reorganization carried out with a gerrymandering strategy? Porto’s district, its counties and respective parishes were chosen for the analysis of political bias, partisan bias and gerrymandering. Using the local elections of 2009, 2013 and 2017, and comparing them through a data analysis and a linear regression, we were able to conclude that partisan bias exists and is significant in Porto’s district. We can also say that gerrymandering occurred as a result of the increase in the partisan bias towards the government party, which benefited in the municipal elections of one third of the counties belonging to the district of Porto, as a result of the application of RAFT in 2013.
Description
Keywords
Gerrymandering Enviesamento partidário Enviesamento político RAFT Freguesias Eleições Partisan bias Political bias Portugal RAFT Parishes Elections