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Abstract(s)
Apesar do orçamento tradicional desempenhar um papel histórico no contexto dos processos organizacionais, também não é menos verdade que, nos últimos anos, várias têm sido as críticas apontadas por investigadores e utilizadores a este mecanismo de planeamento e controlo de gestão. Neste sentido, com o intuito de ultrapassar algumas limitações apontadas ao orçamento, surgiram ao longo do tempo propostas de novos modelos e ferramentas, inseridas em duas correntes de pensamento distintas, denominadas na literatura estudada por better budgeting e beyond budgeting. Inserida no better budgeting, podemos destacar o rolling forecast como a ferramenta com maior taxa de utilização no contexto organizacional. Contudo, constata-se um número crescente de organizações que utilizam os orçamentos em simultâneo com os rolling forecasts, podendo então ser utilizada esta ferramenta tanto numa lógica complementar como substituta do orçamento (Ekholm & Wallin, 2000; EIU, 2007).
O presente trabalho visa discutir a metodologia de rolling forecast e a forma como esta poderá vir a ser utilizada no sistema de controlo de gestão do Grupo Rangel, não como elemento substituto, mas como complemento do orçamento tradicional. Pretende-se, assim, responder à questão quais as vantagens e desvantagens da implementação do rolling forecast e quais as mais valias da utilização desta metodologia de forma complementar ao orçamento tradicional no contexto de uma operação logística específica desenvolvida por uma empresa do setor dos transportes e logística. Para tal, recorreu-se a um estudo de caso no Grupo Rangel, com informação proveniente de diversas fontes, entre elas, entrevista, observação direta e participativa, conversas informais ao longo do período de estágio, análise de documentos internos da organização e, por fim, análise de informação que o Grupo disponibiliza publicamente, quer no seu site quer em bases de dados. Com o intuito de obter conclusões mais detalhadas, foi ainda desenvolvido, por iniciativa própria, um modelo de rolling forecast com suporte em folha de cálculo, em colaboração com os responsáveis da empresa. Neste mecanismo foram incorporados todos os dados referentes à operação logística que serve de base ao presente caso empírico e foram desenvolvidas previsões com um horizonte temporal de 15 meses. Da análise do caso, a evidência obtida vai no sentido de destacar como vantagens da implementação do rolling forecast o facto de evitar que a informação se torne desatualizada, proporcionando uma visão dinâmica e contínua da posição atual da atividade e das perspetivas futuras, tendo em linha de conta o desenvolvimento da envolvente. Associada a estas características, outorga a todos os membros operacionais uma melhoria no processo de tomada de decisão e na gestão da capacidade operacional disponível. Ao nível financeiro, a visão dinâmica prospetiva, proporcionada pelo rolling forecast, promove uma gestão mais eficiente das necessidades e recursos financeiros. Como desvantagens, o caso empírico corroborou com as limitações apontadas pela literatura, a qual defende que a implementação de mecanismos de rolling forecast é um processo que, pelas suas características específicas, pode consumir um nível excessivo de tempo e recursos, potenciando ainda o grau de incerteza percebido pelos gestores. No que diz respeito ao complemento do RF (rolling forecast) com o OT (orçamento tradicional), o estudo de caso sugere existirem mais valias na sua utilização no contexto do Grupo Rangel. Em primeiro lugar, caso existam alterações face aos pressupostos do orçamento, os gestores conseguem perceber de forma mais clara as dinâmicas de evolução do negócio e, caso seja necessário, estão aptos a implementar ações corretivas a fim de alcançar as metas estratégicas definidas pelo Grupo. Em segundo lugar, este complemento permite à organização proceder a uma alocação de recursos de forma mais dinâmica, tendo em conta aquilo que são as necessidades e as oportunidades que vão emergindo. Por último, teremos ainda de salientar que o RF como complemento orçamental é útil para aferir se as metas previamente estabelecidas se encontram em consonância com a realidade vivida. Caso isto não esteja a acontecer, valida a necessidade de um reajuste das mesmas, com o intuito de evitar problemas que possam impactar o desenvolvimento do grupo em estudo. Em suma, alinhado com a literatura (Lorain 2010; Sivabalan et al., 2009; Ekholm and Wallin, 2000; Henttu-Aho and Järvinen, 2013), este estudo de caso mostrou que, apesar do RF não conseguir substituir de forma completa o sistema de orçamentação tradicional, este mecanismo ajuda a melhorar a visibilidade dos períodos futuros, a acompanhar o cumprimento dos objetivos orçamentais e estratégicos e ainda a responder às novas configurações da envolvente que se caracteriza pela sua crescente exigência e volatilidade.
Although the traditional budget plays an historic role in the context of organizational processes, it is also no less true that in recent years several criticis have been made by researchers and users of this management planning and control mechanism. In this sense, in order to overcome some limitations pointed to the budget, proposals for new models and tools have emerged over time, inserted in two different currents of thought, named better budgeting and beyond budgeting in the literature studied. Inserted in better budgeting, we can highlight the rolling forecast as the tool with the highest utilization rate in the organizational context. However, there is an increasing number of organizations that simultaneously use budgets along with rolling forecasts, which can be used in a complementary or substitute way with the budget (Ekholm & Wallin, 2000; EIU, 2007). The present work aims to discuss the rolling forecast methodology and how it can be used in the management control system of the Rangel Group, not as a substitute element, but as a complement to the traditional budget. The purpose is to discover what the advantages and disadvantages of implementing the rolling forecast are and what the advantages of using this methodology are in a way that complements the traditional budget in the context of a specific logistics operation developed by a company in the transport and logistics sector. For this, a case study was used in the Rangel Group with information from several sources, including an interview, direct and participatory observation, informal conversations throughout the internship period, analysis of the organization's internal documents and, finally, analysis of information that the Group makes publicly available, either on its website or in databases. In order to obtain more detailed conclusions, a rolling forecast model with spreadsheet support was also developed on its own initiative, in collaboration with other members of the company. In this mechanism, all data related to the logistical operation (that serves as the basis for the present empirical case) were incorporated and forecasts were developed with a time horizon of 15 months. From the analysis of the case, the evidence obtained aims to highlight as advantages of implementing the rolling forecast the fact that it prevents the information from becoming outdated, providing a dynamic and continuous view of the current position of the activity and future prospects, taking into account the development of the external environment. Associated with these characteristics, it grants all operational members an improvement in the decision-making process and in the management of available operational capacity. At the financial level, the dynamic forward-looking vision provided by the rolling forecast promotes a more efficient management of financial needs and resources. As disadvantages, the empirical case corroborated the limitations acknowledged by literature, which argues that the implementation of rolling forecast mechanisms is a process that, due to its specific features, can consume an excessive level of time and resources, further enhancing the degree of uncertainty perceived by managers. Regarding the complement of the RF (rolling forecast) with the traditional budget, the case study suggests that there are gains in its use in the context of the Rangel Group. Firstly, if there are changes in relation to budget assumptions, managers can perceive the dynamics of business evolution more clearly and, if necessary, are able to implement corrective actions in order to achieve the strategic goals defined by the Group. Secondly, this complement allows the organization to allocate resources in a dynamic way, considering the needs and opportunities that are emerging. Finally, we will also have to highlight that the RF as a budgetary supplement is useful for assessing whether the previously established goals are in line with the reality experienced. If this is not so, it validates the need to readjust them in order to avoid problems that may impact the development of the group. In short, in line with literature (Lorain, 2010; Sivabalan et al., 2009; Ekholm and Wallin, 2000; Henttu-Aho and Järvinen, 2013), this case study showed that, although the RF is unable to completely replace the traditional budgeting system, this mechanism helps to improve the visibility of future periods, to monitor the fulfilment of budgetary and strategic objectives, while still responding to the new configurations of the environment that is characterized by its growing demand and volatility.
Although the traditional budget plays an historic role in the context of organizational processes, it is also no less true that in recent years several criticis have been made by researchers and users of this management planning and control mechanism. In this sense, in order to overcome some limitations pointed to the budget, proposals for new models and tools have emerged over time, inserted in two different currents of thought, named better budgeting and beyond budgeting in the literature studied. Inserted in better budgeting, we can highlight the rolling forecast as the tool with the highest utilization rate in the organizational context. However, there is an increasing number of organizations that simultaneously use budgets along with rolling forecasts, which can be used in a complementary or substitute way with the budget (Ekholm & Wallin, 2000; EIU, 2007). The present work aims to discuss the rolling forecast methodology and how it can be used in the management control system of the Rangel Group, not as a substitute element, but as a complement to the traditional budget. The purpose is to discover what the advantages and disadvantages of implementing the rolling forecast are and what the advantages of using this methodology are in a way that complements the traditional budget in the context of a specific logistics operation developed by a company in the transport and logistics sector. For this, a case study was used in the Rangel Group with information from several sources, including an interview, direct and participatory observation, informal conversations throughout the internship period, analysis of the organization's internal documents and, finally, analysis of information that the Group makes publicly available, either on its website or in databases. In order to obtain more detailed conclusions, a rolling forecast model with spreadsheet support was also developed on its own initiative, in collaboration with other members of the company. In this mechanism, all data related to the logistical operation (that serves as the basis for the present empirical case) were incorporated and forecasts were developed with a time horizon of 15 months. From the analysis of the case, the evidence obtained aims to highlight as advantages of implementing the rolling forecast the fact that it prevents the information from becoming outdated, providing a dynamic and continuous view of the current position of the activity and future prospects, taking into account the development of the external environment. Associated with these characteristics, it grants all operational members an improvement in the decision-making process and in the management of available operational capacity. At the financial level, the dynamic forward-looking vision provided by the rolling forecast promotes a more efficient management of financial needs and resources. As disadvantages, the empirical case corroborated the limitations acknowledged by literature, which argues that the implementation of rolling forecast mechanisms is a process that, due to its specific features, can consume an excessive level of time and resources, further enhancing the degree of uncertainty perceived by managers. Regarding the complement of the RF (rolling forecast) with the traditional budget, the case study suggests that there are gains in its use in the context of the Rangel Group. Firstly, if there are changes in relation to budget assumptions, managers can perceive the dynamics of business evolution more clearly and, if necessary, are able to implement corrective actions in order to achieve the strategic goals defined by the Group. Secondly, this complement allows the organization to allocate resources in a dynamic way, considering the needs and opportunities that are emerging. Finally, we will also have to highlight that the RF as a budgetary supplement is useful for assessing whether the previously established goals are in line with the reality experienced. If this is not so, it validates the need to readjust them in order to avoid problems that may impact the development of the group. In short, in line with literature (Lorain, 2010; Sivabalan et al., 2009; Ekholm and Wallin, 2000; Henttu-Aho and Järvinen, 2013), this case study showed that, although the RF is unable to completely replace the traditional budgeting system, this mechanism helps to improve the visibility of future periods, to monitor the fulfilment of budgetary and strategic objectives, while still responding to the new configurations of the environment that is characterized by its growing demand and volatility.
Description
Keywords
Rolling forecast Orçamento tradicional Sistemas de controlo de gestão Better budgeting Traditiontal budget Management control systems