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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
This dissertation focuses on the contemporary situation of democratic transitions, at a theoretical level. In particular, it looks at the question of whether the hypothesis of a “democratic recession” is a reality or a myth. The analysis is based on Samuel Huntington’s view of the different democratic waves and on the standpoints of various authors on the current status of the third wave of democratization. The main research question can be defined as the following: is there a setback on democratization, a stagnation, or an evolution? The dissertation considers the perspective of Larry Diamond which, based on what he sees as a decline in the quality of democracy, regards the current situation as a mild democratic recession. This view is mostly sustained on his distinction between electoral and liberal democracies. From another point of view, Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way call the idea of democratic recession a myth, as the observable breakdowns are minor. Moreover, these authors highlight the fact that it is the quality of democracy that should be looked into and not just the number of democracies (essentially presented by Freedom House). Finally, Thomas Carothers’ theory is taken into account: this author emphasizes that a so-called “transition paradigm”, which was verified in the democratic transitions of the third wave, is no longer valid as a blueprint for future processes of democratization. Carothers also concludes that many of the countries with democratic prospects have not necessarily followed a clear path towards a democratic regime, but have instead gone into what he calls a gray zone of political uncertainty. The answer to the above question is the result of the debate between these various ideas and arguments.