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- Quantifying the Coordinated Effects of Partial Horizontal AcquisitionsPublication . Brito, Duarte; Ribeiro, Ricardo; Vasconcelos, HelderThe growth of private-equity investment strategies in which rms often hold partial ownership interests in competing rms has led competition agencies to take an increased interest in as- sessing the competitive e¤ects of partial horizontal acquisitions. We propose a methodology to evaluate the coordinated e¤ects of such acquisitions on di¤erentiated products industries. The acquisitions may be direct and indirect, and may or not correspond to control. The method- ology, that nests full mergers, evaluates the impact on the range of discount factors for which coordination can be sustained. We provide an empirical application to several acquisitions in the wet shaving industry.
- Project finance in Europe: an overview and discussion of key driversPublication . Pinto, João M.; Alves, Paulo P.
- Sampaio Bruno e Leonardo Coimbra: Olhares cruzados sobre o marxismoPublication . Costa, Leonardo; Martins, Nuno Miguel Ornelas
- Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed partsPublication . Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, FabioWe forecast stock market returns by applying, within a Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts framework, a frequency decomposition of several predictors of stock returns. The method delivers statistically and economically significant improvements over historical mean forecasts, with monthly out- of-sample R2 of 3.27% and annual utility gains of 403 basis points. The strong performance of this method comes from its ability to isolate the frequencies of the predictors with the highest predictive power from the noisy parts, and from the fact that the frequency-decomposed predictors carry complementary information that captures both the long-term trend and the higher frequency movements of stock market returns.
- Student Performance in Mathematics using PISA-2009 data for PortugalPublication . Faria, Susana; Portela, MariaThis paper is based on Portuguese data from PISA-2009, and it focuses on the measurement of student achievement in mathematics and on the determinants of this achievement both at the student and at the school levels. Data on about 3900 Portuguese students and 194 schools who participated in PISA-2009 were used to accomplish our objectives. Given the hierarchical structure of data, the models adopted for statistical analysis were multilevel models, which can take into account data variability within and among the hierarchical levels. Specifically we were interested in understanding whether the impact of students' variables were similar for students with diferent levels of achievement. As a result, we used a multilevel quantile regression model to analyse the determinants of students' success, where the potential determinants are student and school variables. Our study provides evidence that a stable relation with achievement is expected for some variables (e.g. gender, repetition, or socio economic back- ground), while other variables show varying impacts depending on the students location on the rank of achievement in maths (e.g. immigrant status of students, or some study strategies like control strategies). In spite of schools having a significant impact on students' achievement (without considering any explanatory factors, 30% of the variability found in students' test scores can be explained by the school attended), we found that most school-level variables (except location) were not significant in explaining the school effect.
- Endogenous product design and quality with rationally inattentive consumersPublication . Cunha, Mariana; Osório, António; Ribeiro, Ricardon some markets, consumers do not know the attributes of all the products that are available in the market, or the prices at which they are offered. To overcome this uncertainty, consumers may gather and process information about those attributes and prices. In this paper, we examine the consequences of consumer costs of doing so on firms product attribute and pricing decisions. To do so, we follow the rational inattention literature in assuming that, before entering the choice situation, consumers are in contact with all products, but may have an incomplete or imprecise prior idea about their attributes and prices. Further, we also assume that consumers can, at a cost, gather and process information in a non-random fashion about any (sub)set of products, with any precision about their attributes and prices. Furthermore, we assume that products are characterized by both horizontal and vertically differentiated attributes, which we address as design and quality, respectively. We find a number of interesting results. First, if the unit costs of gathering and processing information are homogeneous among consumers, firm' should differentiate their products as those costs fall, so to relax the otherwise increasing price competition. This implies that equilibrium prices may increase as these costs decrease, because product differentiation countervails the otherwise negative impact on prices. Second, if the unit costs of gathering and processing information are heterogeneous among consumers, with a sizeable proportion of "informed" consumers, firms should always seek to differentiate their products as maximum as possible, independently of the level of information costs of the "uninformed" consumers. This implies that equilibrium price levels do not increase (and, in fact, tend to decrease) as the unit costs of those consumers decrease and that "informed" consumers serve as a "market competition guardian". Finally, in all the above cases, firms do not need to differentiate themselves along all attribute dimensions. Differentiation along one attribute dimension is more than enough to relax price competition.
- A counting multidimensional innovation index for SMEsPublication . Pereira, Nuno Campos; Araújo, Nuno; Costa, LeonardoWe developed a C ounting Multidimensional Innovation Index (MII) framework for measuring and benchmarking innovation of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) , groups of SMEs, industries , regions, and countries . The methodology behind the MII is similar to the methodology behind the United Nations Multi dimensional Poverty Index and follows the innovation definitions stipulated by the OECD Oslo Manual , cover ing dime n s ions and partial indicators suggested by this Ma nual and/or adapted from the In novation Union Scoreboard (IUS) and from the Global Innovation Index (GII) . T o illustrate the MII framework , a survey was conducted among SME s of the metalworking industry in Portugal .
- Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictorsPublication . Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, FabioWe show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can b e signi cantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship b etween the equity risk premium and several p otential predictors. We consider fteen predictors from the existing literature, for the out-of-sample forecasting p erio d from January 1990 to Decemb er 2014. The b est result achieved for individual predictors is a monthly out-of-sample R 2 of 2.98 % and utility gains of 549 basis p oints p er year for a mean-variance investor. This p erformance is improved even further when the individual forecasts from the frequency- decomp osed predictors are combined. These results are robust for di erent subsamples, including the Great Mo deration p erio d, the Great Financial Crisis p erio d and, more generically, p erio ds of bad, normal and go o d economic growth. The strong and robust p erformance of this metho d comes from its ability to disentangle the information aggregated in the original time series of each variable, which allows to isolate the frequencies of the predictors with the highest predictive p ower from the noisy parts.
- Output-Specific inputs in DEA: An application to CourtsPublication . Portela, MariaThis paper addresses the assessment of efficiency of production units in cases where some characteristics of the production process are known. In particular we focus on the existence of direct linkages between inputs and outputs, where certain outputs are produced from specific inputs and not jointly produced from all inputs. Our aim is to use and empirically compare alternative forms of reflecting the linkages between inputs and outputs. The alternatives to be compared to reflect the linkages between inputs and outputs are: the use of separate assessments; the use of ratios between linked outputs and inputs; and the use of differences between linked outputs and inputs. These alternatives are presented and contextualised within existing procedures for dealing with output-specific inputs, and results are discussed and illustrated empirically in the context of evaluating courts’ efficiency.
- One man’s trash is another man’s treasure: A comparative analysis of property rights in solid wastePublication . Danese, GiuseppePrevious literature has studied waste picking as an economic, social and environmental phenomenon of great importance in countries characterized by ineffective waste collection and recycli ng programs. The legal foundations of waste picking have, however, received little scholarly attention. Surveys conducted with waste pickers from 5 cities (Bogotá, Pune, Belo Horizonte, Durban, Nakuru) find that existing, and often hostile, regulations and competition from new entrants are key concerns for the waste pickers. In this paper, I argue that a ny system of legal rules that tries to exclude the waste pickers from the waste value chain results in h igh transaction costs and risks further aggravating existing social injustices. Several inclusive property right regimes are conceivable, from waste picker ownership of waste to a res nullius (nobody’s property) regime complemented by a right of first possession . R es nullius create s incentives for the stake holders of waste to specialize in different segments of the collection and recycling chain. P o ssible drawbacks of this regime are dissipating rents because of open access to waste .