Assessing default risk of renewable energy corporation : AcF 706

Abstract

This report aims to summarise and present relevant theory for conducting credit risk analysis of publicly traded companies. Particular attention will be put on Structural Models with emphasis on Merton (1974) and Leland (1994) models. The second part of the report will analyse Renewable Energy Corporation ASA using a range of tools including the calibration of the structural models introduced in part 1. Although the calibrations of the Merton (1974) and Leland (1994) models have predicted different default probabilities and credit spreads, they both point in the direction that REC is facing considerable default probability. This study seems to confirm the findings that credit spreads contain other factors in addition to credit spread. Taken together these results indicate that an extension of the Merton (1974) model, which includes coupon payments, performs better than the Leland (1994) model for companies with high yield debt securities. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that the Leland (1994) model underestimates default probability of such companies. However, further research needs to be conducted on the matter before any definite conclusions can be made.