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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

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dc.contributor.authorFullman, Nancy
dc.contributor.authorBarber, Ryan M
dc.contributor.authorAbajobir, Amanuel Alemu
dc.contributor.authorAbate, Kalkidan Hassen
dc.contributor.authorAbbafati, Cristiana
dc.contributor.authorAbbas, Kaja M
dc.contributor.authorAbd-Allah, Foad
dc.contributor.authorAbdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
dc.contributor.authorAbdulle, Abdishakur M
dc.contributor.authorAbera, Semaw Ferede
dc.contributor.authorAboyans, Victor
dc.contributor.authorKopec, Jacek A
dc.contributor.authorMeier, Toni
dc.contributor.authorYip, Paul
dc.contributor.authorYonemoto, Naohiro
dc.contributor.authorDo, Huyen Phuc
dc.contributor.authorShaikh, Masood Ali
dc.contributor.authorYoon, Seok-Jun
dc.contributor.authorButt, Zahid A
dc.contributor.authorNorheim, Ole F
dc.contributor.authorKim, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorHammami, Mouhanad
dc.contributor.authorGeleto, Ayele
dc.contributor.authorYotebieng, Marcel
dc.contributor.authorBannick, Marlena S
dc.contributor.authorYounis, Mustafa Z
dc.contributor.authorZaidi, Zoubida
dc.contributor.authorZaki, Maysaa El Sayed
dc.contributor.authorBreitborde, Nicholas J K
dc.contributor.authorShamsipour, Mansour
dc.contributor.authorKosen, Soewarta
dc.contributor.authorZavala-Arciniega, Luis
dc.contributor.authorKisa, Adnan
dc.contributor.authorCriqui, Michael H
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xueying
dc.contributor.authorZipkin, Ben
dc.contributor.authorReinig, Nikolas
dc.contributor.authorNoubiap, Jean Jacques N
dc.contributor.authorZodpey, Sanjay
dc.contributor.authorDokova, Klara
dc.contributor.authorHavmoeller, Rasmus
dc.contributor.authorLim, Stephen S
dc.contributor.authorDargan, Paul I
dc.contributor.authorUneke, Chigozie Jesse
dc.contributor.authorMurray, Christopher J L
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dc.contributor.authorBarac, Aleksandra
dc.contributor.authorMeles, Kidanu Gebremariam
dc.contributor.authorBarker-Collo, Suzanne L
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dc.contributor.authorReitsma, Marissa B
dc.contributor.authorBärnighausen, Till
dc.contributor.authorObermeyer, Carla Makhlouf
dc.contributor.authorBarrero, Lope H
dc.contributor.authorUpdike, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorBasu, Sanjay
dc.contributor.authorMartinez-Raga, Jose
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dc.contributor.authorBattle, Katherine E
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dc.contributor.authorDoku, David Teye
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dc.contributor.authorSteiner, Caitlyn
dc.contributor.authorMendoza, Walter
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dc.contributor.authorDandona, Rakhi
dc.contributor.authorFeigl, Andrea B
dc.contributor.authorFereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
dc.contributor.authorOlagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi
dc.contributor.authorRios Blancas, Maria Jesus
dc.contributor.authorAgrawal, Sutapa
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dc.contributor.authorTerkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
dc.contributor.authorSobaih, Badr H A
dc.contributor.authorSobngwi, Eugene
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Cuong Tat
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yun Jin
dc.contributor.authorSoljak, Michael
dc.contributor.authorKarch, André
dc.contributor.authorSoneji, Samir
dc.contributor.authorWeiss, Daniel J
dc.contributor.authorRai, Rajesh Kumar
dc.contributor.authorSorensen, Reed J D
dc.contributor.authorHailu, Gessessew Bugssa
dc.contributor.authorAlla, François
dc.contributor.authorSeedat, Soraya
dc.contributor.authorTessema, Gizachew Assefa
dc.contributor.authorThakur, JS
dc.contributor.authorAlam, Khurshid
dc.contributor.authorRajsic, Sasa
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Minh
dc.contributor.authorWerdecker, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorDeiparine, Selina
dc.contributor.authorThankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman
dc.contributor.authorThrift, Amanda G
dc.contributor.authorTiruye, Tenaw Yimer
dc.contributor.authorTobe-Gai, Ruoyan
dc.contributor.authorMartin, Randall V
dc.contributor.authorTopor-Madry, Roman
dc.contributor.authorTorre, Anna
dc.contributor.authorMcGaughey, Madeline
dc.contributor.authorTortajada, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorDing, Eric L
dc.contributor.authorRam, Usha
dc.contributor.authorHamadeh, Randah Ribhi
dc.contributor.authorNichols, Emma
dc.contributor.authorAwasthi, Ashish
dc.contributor.authorFürst, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorTran, Bach Xuan
dc.contributor.authorSepanlou, Sadaf G
dc.contributor.authorTroeger, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorDeribe, Kebede
dc.contributor.authorTruelsen, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorBadawi, Alaa
dc.contributor.authorTsoi, Derrick
dc.contributor.authorTuem, Kald Beshir
dc.contributor.authorRanabhat, Chhabi Lal
dc.contributor.authorMcGrath, John J
dc.contributor.authorTuzcu, Emin Murat
dc.contributor.authorMajeed, Azeem
dc.contributor.authorTyrovolas, Stefanos
dc.contributor.authorServan-Mori, Edson E
dc.contributor.authorUkwaja, Kingsley N
dc.contributor.authorKivimaki, Mika
dc.contributor.authorChitheer, Abdulaal A
dc.contributor.authorSrinivasan, Vinay
dc.contributor.authorWesterman, Ronny
dc.contributor.authorWhiteford, Harvey A
dc.contributor.authorChang, Hsing-Yi
dc.contributor.authorShackelford, Katya Anne
dc.contributor.authorReidy, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorHareri, Habtamu Abera
dc.contributor.authorWijeratne, Tissa
dc.contributor.authorWiysonge, Charles Shey
dc.contributor.authorWoldeyes, Belete Getahun
dc.contributor.authorWolfe, Charles D A
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Quyen Le
dc.contributor.authorWoodbrook, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorXavier, Denis
dc.contributor.authorAlvis-Guzman, Nelson
dc.contributor.authorXu, Gelin
dc.contributor.authorShaheen, Amira
dc.contributor.authorKokubo, Yoshihiro
dc.contributor.authorReiner, Robert C
dc.contributor.authorDjalalinia, Shirin
dc.contributor.authorKarema, Corine Kakizi
dc.contributor.authorYadgir, Simon
dc.contributor.authorStanaway, Jeffrey D
dc.contributor.authorBalakrishnan, Kalpana
dc.contributor.authorHassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh
dc.contributor.authorYakob, Bereket
dc.contributor.authorYan, Lijing L
dc.contributor.authorYano, Yuichiro
dc.contributor.authorShahraz, Saeid
dc.contributor.authorNong, Vuong Minh
dc.contributor.authorYaseri, Mehdi
dc.contributor.authorMusa, Kamarul Imran
dc.contributor.authorYe, Pengpeng
dc.contributor.authorAtre, Sachin R
dc.contributor.authorYimam, Hassen Hamid
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-18T19:02:19Z
dc.date.available2017-12-18T19:02:19Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractBackground: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation: GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationFullman, N., Barber, R. M., Abajobir, A. A., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., . . . Murray, Christopher J. L. (2017). Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the global burden of disease study 2016. Lancet, 390(10100), 1423-1459pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-Xpt_PT
dc.identifier.eid85029166308
dc.identifier.eissn1474-547X
dc.identifier.issn0140-6736
dc.identifier.pmid28916366
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/23721
dc.identifier.wos000410630000007
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage1459pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue10100pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1423pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleLancetpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume390pt_PT
person.familyNameFernandes
person.givenNameJoão
person.identifier.ciencia-id881D-7FFD-DD7D
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1556-1698
person.identifier.ridK-3126-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35274726800
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication4f081a71-52de-47ab-80f1-45a546c3ebab
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery4f081a71-52de-47ab-80f1-45a546c3ebab

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