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Níveis das reservas de caixa e crises financeiras : evolução dos níveis das reservas de caixa nas empresas do S&P 500 antes, durante e após as crises do Subprime e da Covid-19
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As guerras e tensões geopolíticas intensificam o risco económico e alimentam o receio de crises financeiras. Em contextos de incerteza, o caixa assume um papel central, funcionando como amortecedor de restrições e fonte imediata de financiamento. Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar o impacto de crises financeiras nos níveis de caixa das empresas, em comparação com anos sem crise. Para tal, utiliza-se uma amostra de empresas pertencentes ao índice S&P 500, entre 2004 e 2024, com foco nas crises do Subprime (2007-2009) e da Covid-19 (2020). A partir de modelos de regressão com dados em painel e testes de robustez, testou-se a hipótese de que os níveis de caixa aumentam em períodos de crise. Os resultados sustentam parcialmente esta hipótese, ao revelarem um impacto positivo e estatisticamente significativo da crise da Covid-19 sobre os níveis de caixa das empresas. No caso da crise do Subprime, a evidência é menos robusta, apresentando resultados positivos em várias especificações, mas sem significância estatística no modelo Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Esta diferença poderá dever-se à natureza de cada crise e ao tipo de resposta política, com a crise do Subprime centrada no setor financeiro e a crise pandémica marcada por apoios diretos às empresas, sobretudo ao nível da liquidez imediata. Este estudo contribui para a literatura ao oferecer uma análise comparativa das duas principais crises do século XXI – a crise do Subprime e a crise da Covid-19 – com base em dados atualizados e diferentes abordagens econométricas. Para a prática empresarial, os resultados evidenciam a importância de uma gestão financeira prudente e da constituição de reservas de caixa como instrumento de mitigação de risco em contextos de elevada incerteza.
Wars and geopolitical tensions heighten economic risk and increase fears of financial crises. In times of uncertainty, cash plays a central role, acting as a buffer against constraints and an immediate source of funding. This study aims to analyse the impact of financial crises on corporate cash holdings, compared to non-crisis years. For this purpose, a sample of non-financial firms from the S&P 500 index between 2004 and 2024 is used, with particular focus on the Subprime crisis (2007–2009) and the Covid-19 crisis (2020). Using panel data regression models and robustness tests, the hypothesis that cash holdings increase during crises is tested. The results partially support this hypothesis, revealing a positive and statistically significant impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate cash holdings. In the case of the Subprime crisis, the evidence is less robust, showing positive results in several specifications but lacking statistical significance in the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model. This difference may be due to the nature of each crisis and the type of policy response, with the Subprime crisis rooted in the financial sector and the pandemic crisis characterized by direct support to firms, particularly in terms of immediate liquidity. This study contributes to the literature by providing a comparative analysis of the two major crises of the 21st century — the Subprime crisis and the Covid-19 crisis — using updated data and seeking to address potential endogeneity issues. For managerial practice, the findings highlight the importance of prudent financial management and the strategic role of cash reserves as a risk mitigation tool in highly uncertain environments.
Wars and geopolitical tensions heighten economic risk and increase fears of financial crises. In times of uncertainty, cash plays a central role, acting as a buffer against constraints and an immediate source of funding. This study aims to analyse the impact of financial crises on corporate cash holdings, compared to non-crisis years. For this purpose, a sample of non-financial firms from the S&P 500 index between 2004 and 2024 is used, with particular focus on the Subprime crisis (2007–2009) and the Covid-19 crisis (2020). Using panel data regression models and robustness tests, the hypothesis that cash holdings increase during crises is tested. The results partially support this hypothesis, revealing a positive and statistically significant impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate cash holdings. In the case of the Subprime crisis, the evidence is less robust, showing positive results in several specifications but lacking statistical significance in the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model. This difference may be due to the nature of each crisis and the type of policy response, with the Subprime crisis rooted in the financial sector and the pandemic crisis characterized by direct support to firms, particularly in terms of immediate liquidity. This study contributes to the literature by providing a comparative analysis of the two major crises of the 21st century — the Subprime crisis and the Covid-19 crisis — using updated data and seeking to address potential endogeneity issues. For managerial practice, the findings highlight the importance of prudent financial management and the strategic role of cash reserves as a risk mitigation tool in highly uncertain environments.
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Níveis de caixa Crises financeiras Crise Subprime Crise Covid-19 Cash holdings Financial crises Subprime Crisis Covid-19 Crisis
Contexto Educativo
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Licença CC
Sem licença CC