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Esta tese procura quantificar os trade-offs resultantes da aplicação de uma eventual taxa turística nos estabelecimentos hoteleiros da região Norte de Portugal, nomeadamente no que diz respeito ao impacto no número de dormidas e nas receitas das entidades hoteleiras, bem como ao imposto gerado pela taxa. Esta quantificação assenta na estimação de um modelo de procura para o mercado hoteleiro e, nesse sentido, foram consideradas duas especificações de um modelo de escolha discreta logit: o multinominal logit e o nested multinominal logit, ambos desenvolvidos por McFadden (1978, 1981). Estas duas especificações foram estimadas com dados mensais referentes ao mercado hoteleiro de Portugal Continental, no período de 2013 a 2015, que se segmenta em 5 regiões (Alentejo, Algarve, Centro, Lisboa e Norte), compostas por 5 tipologias de estabelecimentos hoteleiros (hotéis de 1* e 2*, 3*, 4*, 5* e hotéis-apartamentos) e uma opção externa (referente às restantes opções). Os resultados sugerem que os consumidores são sensíveis ao preço e que a implementação da taxa turística implica, em média, uma diminuição de 12,1% no número de dormidas mensais de cada tipologia. No agregado estima-se uma diminuição de 48.207 dormidas e 1.660.549,75 € na receita total. Por outro lado, e contrabalançando, a implementação da taxa turística gera um imposto total de 350.298,96 € por mês para o total das autarquias pertencentes à região.
This thesis aims to quantify the resulting trade-offs of the application of a tourist tax on hotel establishments in the northern region of Portugal, mainly the impact on the number of stays (per night) and on the revenues of the hotels, as well as the income generated from the tax. This quantification is based on the estimation of a demand model, for the hotel market and, for this purpose, were considered two specifications of logit discrete choice model: Multinominal Logit (MNL) and Nested Multinominal Logit (NMNL), both developed by McFadden (1978, 1981). These two specifications were estimated with monthly data for the hotel market ofContinental Portugal, from 2013 to 2015, which issegmented into 5 groups per region (Alentejo, Algarve, Centro, Lisboa and Norte), which in turn are composed by 5 typologies of hotel establishments (1* and 2* hotels, 3*, 4*, 5* and hotel-apartments) and an outside option (referring to other options). The results suggest that consumers are price sensitive and that the implementation of a tourist tax implies, on average, a decrease of 12,1% of the number of monthly stays (per night), in each typology. When aggregated, it is possible to estimate a decrease of 48.207 stays (per night) and 1.660.549,75€ in total revenue. On the other hand, and countering the previously stated negative effects, the implementation of a tourist tax generates a total income of 350.298,96€ per month for the total autarkies in the region.
This thesis aims to quantify the resulting trade-offs of the application of a tourist tax on hotel establishments in the northern region of Portugal, mainly the impact on the number of stays (per night) and on the revenues of the hotels, as well as the income generated from the tax. This quantification is based on the estimation of a demand model, for the hotel market and, for this purpose, were considered two specifications of logit discrete choice model: Multinominal Logit (MNL) and Nested Multinominal Logit (NMNL), both developed by McFadden (1978, 1981). These two specifications were estimated with monthly data for the hotel market ofContinental Portugal, from 2013 to 2015, which issegmented into 5 groups per region (Alentejo, Algarve, Centro, Lisboa and Norte), which in turn are composed by 5 typologies of hotel establishments (1* and 2* hotels, 3*, 4*, 5* and hotel-apartments) and an outside option (referring to other options). The results suggest that consumers are price sensitive and that the implementation of a tourist tax implies, on average, a decrease of 12,1% of the number of monthly stays (per night), in each typology. When aggregated, it is possible to estimate a decrease of 48.207 stays (per night) and 1.660.549,75€ in total revenue. On the other hand, and countering the previously stated negative effects, the implementation of a tourist tax generates a total income of 350.298,96€ per month for the total autarkies in the region.
Description
Keywords
Taxa turística Modelos de estimação da procura Multinominal logit Nested multinominal logit Tourist tax Demand estimation models