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Redução da pobreza rural em Angola através da agricultura familiar : o caso da Carrinho Agri
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Esta dissertação avalia o impacto do programa de fomento à agricultura familiar da Carrinho Agri, subsidiária do Grupo Carrinho, na redução da pobreza rural em Angola. Recorrendo ao método de Propensity Score Matching (PSM), a investigação estima o efeito causal do Sistema de Produção Integrada Carrinho (SPIC) sobre o rendimento, a produtividade e a segurança alimentar de agricultores familiares. A amostra abrange 822 agricultores em seis províncias angolanas, Benguela, Bié, Cuanza Sul, Huambo, Huíla e Malanje, dos quais 290 pares foram emparelhados em 12 variáveis observáveis. Os resultados demonstram que o programa tem impacto estatisticamente significativo: os participantes registam um rendimento médio superior em 48.793 AOA por campanha (p < 0,001), um crescimento real do rendimento de 101% face a 26% no grupo de controlo, e uma expansão da área cultivada de 131%. Adicionalmente, 92,4% dos participantes reportam melhoria nas condições de vida. O estudo constitui a primeira evidência quasi-experimental sobre o impacto de um modelo de contract farming em Angola, demonstrando que o sector privado pode desempenhar um papel estruturante no desenvolvimento agrícola quando opera modelos integrados de insumos, assistência técnica e acesso a mercados. Os resultados sublinham, simultaneamente, que o programa reduz mas não elimina a pobreza rural, evidenciando a necessidade de políticas públicas complementares.
This dissertation evaluates the impact of Carrinho Agri’s smallholder farming programme, a subsidiary of Grupo Carrinho, on rural poverty reduction in Angola. Using Propensity Score Matching (PSM), the study estimates the causal effect of the Carrinho Integrated Production System (SPIC) on farmers’ income, agricultural productivity, and food security. The sample comprises 822 farmers across six Angolan provinces, Benguela, Bié, Cuanza Sul, Huambo, Huíla and Malanje, of whom 290 pairs were matched on 12 observable variables. Results show a statistically significant programme impact: participants earn an average of 48,793 AOA more per agricultural campaign (p < 0.001), record real income growth of 101% compared to 26% in the control group, and expand cultivated area by 131%. Additionally, 92.4% of participants report improved living conditions. This study provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on the impact of a contract farming model in Angola, demonstrating that the private sector can play a structural role in agricultural development when deploying integrated models combining inputs, technical assistance, and market access. The findings also highlight that while the programme meaningfully reduces rural poverty, income levels remain below the international poverty threshold, underscoring the need for complementary public policy interventions. Keywords: family farming; poverty reduction; agricultural development; contract farming; Propensity Score Matching; Angola; rural development.
This dissertation evaluates the impact of Carrinho Agri’s smallholder farming programme, a subsidiary of Grupo Carrinho, on rural poverty reduction in Angola. Using Propensity Score Matching (PSM), the study estimates the causal effect of the Carrinho Integrated Production System (SPIC) on farmers’ income, agricultural productivity, and food security. The sample comprises 822 farmers across six Angolan provinces, Benguela, Bié, Cuanza Sul, Huambo, Huíla and Malanje, of whom 290 pairs were matched on 12 observable variables. Results show a statistically significant programme impact: participants earn an average of 48,793 AOA more per agricultural campaign (p < 0.001), record real income growth of 101% compared to 26% in the control group, and expand cultivated area by 131%. Additionally, 92.4% of participants report improved living conditions. This study provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on the impact of a contract farming model in Angola, demonstrating that the private sector can play a structural role in agricultural development when deploying integrated models combining inputs, technical assistance, and market access. The findings also highlight that while the programme meaningfully reduces rural poverty, income levels remain below the international poverty threshold, underscoring the need for complementary public policy interventions. Keywords: family farming; poverty reduction; agricultural development; contract farming; Propensity Score Matching; Angola; rural development.
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Agricultura familiar Redução da pobreza Fomento agrícola Contract farming Propensity score matching Angola Desenvolvimento rural Family farming Poverty reduction Agricultural development Rural development
Contexto Educativo
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Licença CC
Sem licença CC