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Authors
Abstract(s)
A avaliação de empresas não é uma ciência exacta. É baseada em modelos
teóricos e em pressupostos de analistas que tentam prever eventos futuros, pelo
que envolve um elevado nível de subjectividade. No entanto, diversos analistas
tentam diariamente, aplicando as suas capacidades e conhecimentos,
determinar o justo valor de diversos títulos. Semelhantemente, o objectivo desta
tese é determinar o justo valor da acção do Millennium BCP, aplicando as minhas
capacidades e conhecimentos. De acordo com a minha a análise o preço alvo
para a acção do Millennium BCP é €0,068, o que representa um potencial de
valorização de 30% (preço de fecho a 24.12.2015) – recomendação de
COMPRA. Adicionalmente, analisei o impacto dos maiores riscos e
oportunidades através de uma análise de sensibilidade e comparei as minhas
conclusões com uma nota de research de um banco de investimento.
Valuation is not an exact science. It is based on theoretical models and practitioner’s assumptions that try to predict future outcomes, hence it involves a high degree of subjectivity. Nonetheless, everyday several analysts attempt, to the best of their knowledge and ability, to determine the appropriate price for a given security. In a similar form, the purpose of this dissertation is to assess a target price for the share of Millennium BCP to the best of my knowledge and ability. According to my analysis the price target for Millennium BCP should be €0,068 per share, which represents a 30% upside potential (closing price of 24.12.2015) – BUY recommendation. I have also assessed the impact of the main risks and upsides to the share price through a sensitivity analysis and compared my analysis to a leading investment bank report.
Valuation is not an exact science. It is based on theoretical models and practitioner’s assumptions that try to predict future outcomes, hence it involves a high degree of subjectivity. Nonetheless, everyday several analysts attempt, to the best of their knowledge and ability, to determine the appropriate price for a given security. In a similar form, the purpose of this dissertation is to assess a target price for the share of Millennium BCP to the best of my knowledge and ability. According to my analysis the price target for Millennium BCP should be €0,068 per share, which represents a 30% upside potential (closing price of 24.12.2015) – BUY recommendation. I have also assessed the impact of the main risks and upsides to the share price through a sensitivity analysis and compared my analysis to a leading investment bank report.