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Abstract(s)
A realização desta dissertação surge no âmbito da realização do estágio curricular no
Departamento Administrativo e Financeiro do Grupo Mystic Invest, grupo que detém a empresa
Douro Azul – Sociedade Marítimo Turística, S.A..
A avaliação de uma empresa requer a identificação das variáveis críticas que comandam a
criação de valor, assim como a análise, suportada pela história da empresa, da sua evolução futura no
tempo.
O principal objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar a Douro Azul – Sociedade Marítimo Turística,
S.A. pelo meio da utilização do Modelo de Avaliação por Fluxo de Caixa Descontado (FCD). Este modelo
avalia as movimentações dos fluxos de caixa operacionais, cuja projeção implica os seguintes
pressupostos: análise e previsão da atividade operacional, elaboração de um plano de investimentos,
definição da estrutura de capital alvo e a estimação do custo de capital considerando todos os pontos
anteriores.
Com base na análise dos relatórios de contas da DouroAzul-SMT, S.A., entre os anos de 2014
e 2017, e nos valores estimados até ao ano de 2022, foi possível aplicar o modelo de avaliação por
FCD. A aplicação deste modelo resultou na projeção do valor da empresa, para finais do ano de 2019,
de € 76M. No sentido de desenvolver uma maior sensibilidade na avaliação, foram ainda analisados
dois cenários alternativos ao cenário exposto. A aplicação do modelo por FCD assente na estimação
de um quadro de pressupostos para um cenário pessimista e para um cenário otimista, resultou na
avaliação da DouroAzul-SMT, S.A. nos valores de € 58M e € 82M, respetivamente.
Este exercício de avaliação reflete exclusivamente a minha visão da empresa.
The development of this dissertation arises from the accomplishment of an internship in the Administrative and Financial Department of the Mystic Invest Group that owns the company Douro Azul – Sociedade Marítimo Turistica, S.A.. The valuation of a company requires the identification of the value drivers that lead the company’s value generation, as well as the analysis, supported by the history of the company, of its prospective evolution in time. The main purpose of this dissertation is to value Douro Azul-Sociedade Marítimo Turística, S.A., using the Discounted Cash Flow model (DCF model). This model evaluates the expected movements of the free cash flows to the firm, whose projection implies assumptions about many different variables, including forecast of the operational activity, of an investment plan, the establishment of a target capital structure and estimation of the cost of capital consistent with all previous points. Regarding the presented information in the annual reports of DouroAzul-SMT, S.A., between the years of 2014 and 2017, and the projections made up to 2022, the DCF model was applied, which resulted in a forecast of the company’s value, for the year 2019, of € 76M. In order to develop a greater sensitivity in the valuation, two alternative scenarios were also developed. Running the DCF model with the estimated values of the main assumptions, for the alternative pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, the DCF model appoints to a company’s value of € 58M and € 82M, respectively. This valuation exercise reflects exclusively my views on the company.
The development of this dissertation arises from the accomplishment of an internship in the Administrative and Financial Department of the Mystic Invest Group that owns the company Douro Azul – Sociedade Marítimo Turistica, S.A.. The valuation of a company requires the identification of the value drivers that lead the company’s value generation, as well as the analysis, supported by the history of the company, of its prospective evolution in time. The main purpose of this dissertation is to value Douro Azul-Sociedade Marítimo Turística, S.A., using the Discounted Cash Flow model (DCF model). This model evaluates the expected movements of the free cash flows to the firm, whose projection implies assumptions about many different variables, including forecast of the operational activity, of an investment plan, the establishment of a target capital structure and estimation of the cost of capital consistent with all previous points. Regarding the presented information in the annual reports of DouroAzul-SMT, S.A., between the years of 2014 and 2017, and the projections made up to 2022, the DCF model was applied, which resulted in a forecast of the company’s value, for the year 2019, of € 76M. In order to develop a greater sensitivity in the valuation, two alternative scenarios were also developed. Running the DCF model with the estimated values of the main assumptions, for the alternative pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, the DCF model appoints to a company’s value of € 58M and € 82M, respectively. This valuation exercise reflects exclusively my views on the company.
Description
Keywords
Valor Capital Investimento Financiamento Capital circulante Fluxo de caixa Value Investment Funding Working capital Cash Flow