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Mercedes-Benz Group : equity evaluation
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Esta dissertação foi elaborada com o propósito de prever o preço-alvo da Mercedes-Benz Group para o início de 2025. A indústria automóvel atravessa atualmente um período de mudanças no mercado, acompanhado por vários desafios. O início da pandemia COVID-19 marcou o começo desta fase, gerando uma escassez de semicondutores que levou a uma diminuição na oferta de veículos. Posteriormente, a indústria enfrentou dificuldades com o aumento das taxas de juros, o que contribuiu para uma desaceleração no mercado. Atualmente, a Mercedes-Benz e o setor automóvel, estão focados no desenvolvimento de tecnologia para veículos elétricos, de acordo com as preferências dos consumidores. A Mercedes-Benz opera através de três segmentos: Cars, Vans e Mobility. É importante destacar que os dois primeiros segmentos assentam principalmente na venda de veículos, enquanto o último tem como foco o negócio de financiamento. Esta dissertação utiliza o Discounted Cash Flow Model, o Dividend Discount Model e o método Múltiplos como abordagens de avaliação para alcançar um preço-alvo final de €77,5, destacando uma recomendação de COMPRA, em linha com a recomendação do relatório de investimentos do Barclays. O DCF apresenta um preço estimado por ação de €84,9, ponderado em 80% no cálculo do preço final. Foi ainda utilizado o DDM, que considera o objetivo de a Mercedes-Benz manter um rácio de distribuição de dividendos de 40% nos próximos anos, indicando um preço por ação de €47,1, ponderado em 10% do preço-alvo final. Por fim, o preço-alvo é complementado por uma abordagem de avaliação relativa, também ponderada em 10%.
The aim of this dissertation is to forecast the target price for Mercedes-Benz Group, a premium automotive brand, at the beginning of 2025. The automotive industry is currently experiencing a period of market shifts accompanied by various challenges. The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic marked the beginning of this phase, with semiconductors shortage that led to a scarcity in vehicles supply. Subsequently, the industry faced further difficulties with rising interest rates, which contributed to a global market slowdown. Today, Mercedes-Benz Group and its’ industry are focused on advancing electric vehicles technology, consistent with consumers’ desires. The Mercedes-Benz Group operates in three segments: Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans and Mercedes-Benz Mobility, each with distinct specifications and strategies yet facing similar challenges. It is important to note that the first two segments primarily focused on vehicles sales, while the third focuses on financing business. This dissertation employs the Discounted Cash Flow Model, Dividend Discount Model and Multiples as valuation approaches to derive a final target price of 77,5€, supporting a BUY recommendation, consistent with the recommendation in Barclays’ investment report. The Discounted Cash Flow Model estimates a share price of 84,9€, weighted at 80% in the final target price calculation. Furthermore, Dividend Discount Model was performed since Mercedes-Benz Group seeks to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% throughout the following years, with a share price of 47,1€, weighted as 10% of final target price. Finally, the final target price is complemented by a relative valuation approach, also weighted as 10%.
The aim of this dissertation is to forecast the target price for Mercedes-Benz Group, a premium automotive brand, at the beginning of 2025. The automotive industry is currently experiencing a period of market shifts accompanied by various challenges. The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic marked the beginning of this phase, with semiconductors shortage that led to a scarcity in vehicles supply. Subsequently, the industry faced further difficulties with rising interest rates, which contributed to a global market slowdown. Today, Mercedes-Benz Group and its’ industry are focused on advancing electric vehicles technology, consistent with consumers’ desires. The Mercedes-Benz Group operates in three segments: Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans and Mercedes-Benz Mobility, each with distinct specifications and strategies yet facing similar challenges. It is important to note that the first two segments primarily focused on vehicles sales, while the third focuses on financing business. This dissertation employs the Discounted Cash Flow Model, Dividend Discount Model and Multiples as valuation approaches to derive a final target price of 77,5€, supporting a BUY recommendation, consistent with the recommendation in Barclays’ investment report. The Discounted Cash Flow Model estimates a share price of 84,9€, weighted at 80% in the final target price calculation. Furthermore, Dividend Discount Model was performed since Mercedes-Benz Group seeks to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% throughout the following years, with a share price of 47,1€, weighted as 10% of final target price. Finally, the final target price is complemented by a relative valuation approach, also weighted as 10%.
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Mercedes-Benz Avaliação de empresa Industria automóvel Equity Valuation Automotive Industry
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Licença CC
Sem licença CC