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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O objetivo da investigação é avaliar os fatores que afetam o comportamento de curto prazo das taxas de juro de longo prazo na área do euro 12 e aconselhar os respetivos governos sobre o momento de emissão de dívida soberana, evitando a ocorrência de custos desnecessários com o serviço da dívida. Uma abordagem de modelo Probit é usada nesta avaliação. Os resultados mostram que as três variáveis que mais afetam o comportamento de curto prazo das taxas de juros de longo prazo nominais são: as compras do governo, o investimento fixo e a inflação do índice de preços do consumidor (IPC). Os governos da área do euro 12 enfrentam taxas de juro de longo prazo nominais mais baixas quando emitem dívida em períodos de expansão económica. Deste modo, os custos gerais com o serviço da dívida podem ser reduzidos.
The research objective is to assess the factors that affect the short run behavior of long-term interest rates in the euro area 12 and advise the respective governments on the timing of issuing sovereign debt, avoiding the occurrence of unnecessary costs with the service of debt. A Probit model approach is used in this assessment. Results show that the three variables that most affect the short run behavior of long-term interest rates are: government purchases, fixed investment, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Governments of the euro area 12 face lower nominal long-term interest rates when issuing debt in periods of economic expansion. In this way, the general costs of servicing the debt can be reduced.
The research objective is to assess the factors that affect the short run behavior of long-term interest rates in the euro area 12 and advise the respective governments on the timing of issuing sovereign debt, avoiding the occurrence of unnecessary costs with the service of debt. A Probit model approach is used in this assessment. Results show that the three variables that most affect the short run behavior of long-term interest rates are: government purchases, fixed investment, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Governments of the euro area 12 face lower nominal long-term interest rates when issuing debt in periods of economic expansion. In this way, the general costs of servicing the debt can be reduced.
Description
Keywords
Curto prazo Taxas de juro de longo prazo Serviço da dívida soberana Área do euro 12 Short run Long-term interest rates Sovereign debt service Euro area 12