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The present work aggregates some theoretical knowledge concerning capital
structure aiming to provide a holistic view over the topic, with the objective of
reinforce the idea and importance of liquidity as part of the Capital Structure
definition.
The study was made over data representative of the European and American firms
(patent in STOXX600 and S&P500 indexes respectively) over the period of 2001 to 2016.
The paper follows a methodology similar to the one found in Frank & Goyal (2009),
using the several regressions and creating models by selecting the factors that are
found to consistently being part of the minimum bayesian information criterion and
appear with coefficients statistically significant. The selection of “the most important
variables” were made for measures of leverage, liquidity and net leverage. It is also
studied the approach of the theoretical models and how thy explain the results by
matching expectations created in the first with the coefficients signals found. The
theoretical models approached, as in literature review is described are the “trade-off”,
“pecking order”, “agency” or “free cash flow theory”, “managerial optimism” and
“market timing”.
The principal conclusions are that for leverage the “most reliable” variables are
growth (with a negative relation (-)), dividends (-), size (+), industry median leverage
(+), cash holding’s average (-), free cash flow (-) and working capital (-). Mainly the
significance of industry median leverage and cash holding’s average (define two
targets leverage and liquidity) are the most important evidence of the tradeoff theory
expectations. For liquidity the best variables found were the nature of assets (-),
industry median cash holdings (+), cash holdings average (+), working capital (-),
stock issuances (+), spread rate (+). In the two models is reflected predominance of the
tradeoff theory for explanation of the relations, (even though there are some variables
that it is not observable). The model of net leverage appears to be explained better by
industry median leverage (+), cash holding’s average (-), free cash flow (-) and working
capital (-), stock repurchases (+), overinvestment (-) and risk (-). From those it was found that the model incorporates the common variables of liquidity and leverage
(cash holdings average and working capital). It was found consistently that leverage
and debt have negative relation, not only for the coefficients found in incorporating
liquidity as independent variable, but also comparing the coefficients behavior of the
same factors when explaining at the same time leverage, liquidity and net leverage.
This paper presents a theoretical suggestion that the pecking order and tradeoff
theory are not independent theories, but they complement each other, and the results
provided, even insufficient, are consistent with that, as it is indicated, the targets for
optimal decisions explained by the tradeoff and some significant variables which the
relations with the dependent variables are better explained by the pecking order.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Leverage Cash holdings Capital structure