CLSBE - Dissertações de Mestrado / Master Dissertations
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Browsing CLSBE - Dissertações de Mestrado / Master Dissertations by Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) "02:Erradicar a Fome"
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- Assessing climate risks in cocoa supply chain : yield forecasting and implications for the cocoa and chocolate industryPublication . Tsui, Cindy; Nogueira, MiguelCocoa is a key commodity for both producing and consuming countries, with over 70% of the world’s supply coming from West and Central Africa. Like any other agricultural crop, cocoa yields are highly sensitive to climate change, which can cause vulnerabilities in production. This study analyzes the impact of climate change on cocoa productivity in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, for Barry Callebaut9s cocoa supply chain. By using historical yield data with high-resolution ERA5 climate reanalysis, multiple machine learning models were tested and evaluated for their predictive performance. The best performing model, a Semiparametric Neural Network, was used to forecast cocoa yield up to 2035 using CMIP6 climate projections under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results showed significant differences in yield trends across regions and how sensitive they are to emissions scenarios. While Cameroon and Nigeria presented stable and increasing yields, Ivory Coast and Ghana faced more interannual variability, especially under the high-emission scenario. Scenario-based simulations of changes in cultivation area showed that production is highly sensitive to land availability, emphasizing the strategic importance of land management. The findings highlight the importance of Barry Callebaut integrating climate projections into supply chain planning. Targeted investments and diversification of their sourcing strategy are recommended to mitigate future climate risks and ensure supply resilience.
- How cooperativism and public policies can develop the olive oil industry in Ourique and Baixo AlentejoPublication . Bento, Diogo Alexandre da Silva; Reis, RicardoThe olive oil industry is facing a period of profound transformation. In the face of climate change, rising global demand, and increasing production costs, regions with the potential to contribute to this market must strategically mobilize their resources. This master's thesis explores how cooperative models, and public incentives can serve as catalysts for the development of the olive oil industry in Baixo Alentejo, Portugal 4 a region with high productive potential yet underexploited. Through an extensive analysis of the European and Portuguese olive oil sectors, this study highlights structural and climatic challenges, compares successful cooperative systems (especially in Spain), and identifies the limitations currently faced by small-scale farmers in Baixo Alentejo. Drawing upon case studies, interviews, and official statistical data, the research concludes that fostering agricultural cooperatives, combined with well-structured public policies and EU funding mechanisms, is essential to unlocking the region’s potential. The findings suggest that a robust cooperative framework 4 supported by local governments, national programs and EU agricultural policies 4 can increase competitiveness, improve sustainability, and enhance socio-economic resilience in rural areas. This thesis offers actionable recommendations for implementing these strategies in Ourique and Baixo Alentejo, aiming to establish the region as a significant player in the global olive oil market. Disclaimer: For linguistic reasons, artificial inteligence in the writing of this thesis.