Browsing by Author "Geraldes, Martim A."
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- The seasonality and spatial landscape of the historical climate-based suitability of Aedes-borne viruses in four atlantic archipelagosPublication . Geraldes, Martim A.; Giovanetti, Marta; Cunha, Mónica V.; Lourenço, JoséWhile archipelagos have a demonstrated role in the stepping-stone process of the global dissemination of Aedes-borne viruses, they are often neglected in epidemiological and modelling studies. Over the past 20 years, some Atlantic archipelagos have witnessed a series of Aedes-borne viral outbreaks, prompting inquiries into the local historical suitability for transmission. In this study, the climate-based suitability for transmission of Aedes-borne viruses between 1980 and 2019 across Madeira, the Canaries, Cape Verde, and São Tomé e Príncipe archipelagos was estimated. For each island, we characterized the seasonality of climate-based suitability, mapped the spatial landscape of suitability, and quantified the historical effects of climate change. Results show that both island-level suitability and the historical impact of climate change decrease with distance from the equator, while significant seasonality patterns are observed only in subtropical climates. This study provides a unique historical perspective on the role of climate in shaping Aedes-borne virus transmission potential in Atlantic archipelagos. The findings herein described can inform local public health initiatives, including human-based prevention, targeted viral surveillance, and mosquito control programs.
- The historical ecological background of West Nile virus in Portugal indicates One Health opportunitiesPublication . Geraldes, Martim A.; Cunha, Mónica V.; Godinho, Carlos; Lima, Ricardo F. de; Giovanetti, Marta; Lourenço, JoséWest Nile (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus with an expanding geographical range and epidemic activity in Europe. Not having yet experienced a human-associated epidemic, Portugal remains an outlier in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we apply ecological niche modelling informed by WNV historical evidence and a multitude of environmental variables from across Portugal. We identify that ecological backgrounds compatible with WNV historical circulation are mostly restricted to the south, characterized by a warmer and drier climate, high avian diversity, specific avian species and land types. We estimate WNV ecological suitability across the country, identifying overlaps with the distributions of the three relevant hosts (humans, birds, equines) for public and animal health. From this, we propose a category-based spatial framework providing first of a kind valuable insights for WNV surveillance in Portugal under the One Health nexus. We forecast that near future climate trends alone will contribute to pushing adequate WNV ecological suitability northwards, towards regions with higher human density. This unique perspective on the past, present and future ecology of WNV addresses existing national knowledge gaps, enhances our understanding of the evolving emergence of WNV, and offers opportunities to prepare and respond to the first human-associated epidemic in Portugal.