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Publication
The seasonality and spatial landscape of the historical climate-based suitability of Aedes-borne viruses in four atlantic archipelagos
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
While archipelagos have a demonstrated role in the stepping-stone process of the global dissemination of Aedes-borne viruses, they are often neglected in epidemiological and modelling studies. Over the past 20 years, some Atlantic archipelagos have witnessed a series of Aedes-borne viral outbreaks, prompting inquiries into the local historical suitability for transmission. In this study, the climate-based suitability for transmission of Aedes-borne viruses between 1980 and 2019 across Madeira, the Canaries, Cape Verde, and São Tomé e Príncipe archipelagos was estimated. For each island, we characterized the seasonality of climate-based suitability, mapped the spatial landscape of suitability, and quantified the historical effects of climate change. Results show that both island-level suitability and the historical impact of climate change decrease with distance from the equator, while significant seasonality patterns are observed only in subtropical climates. This study provides a unique historical perspective on the role of climate in shaping Aedes-borne virus transmission potential in Atlantic archipelagos. The findings herein described can inform local public health initiatives, including human-based prevention, targeted viral surveillance, and mosquito control programs.
Description
Keywords
Aedes-borne Climate Dengue virus Epidemiology Suitability modelling
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Geraldes, M. A., Giovanetti, M., Cunha, M. V., & Lourenço, J. (2025). The seasonality and spatial landscape of the historical climate-based suitability of Aedes-borne viruses in four atlantic archipelagos. Viruses, 17(6), Article 799. https://doi.org/10.3390/v17060799