Browsing by Author "Branstetter, Lee"
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- China's wind electricity and cost of carbon mitigation are more expensive than anticipatedPublication . Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês M. L.The success of China's transition to a low-carbon energy system will be key to achieve the global level of emissions reductions needed to avoid large negative consequences from climate change. China is undergoing an impressive build up of renewable capacity, in particular wind. Using data from the Clean Mechanism Development project database between 2004 and 2012, this study shows that while China made progress in bringing down the levelized cost of wind electricity and cost of carbon mitigation (CCM), serious grid-connection issues and high wind curtailment rates resulted in a levelized cost of wind electricity that is one-half to two times higher than expected, and a CCM that is four to six times higher. Sharp drop in electricity demand, utilization rate, and coal prices in recent years may lead to even higher results.
- China's wind industry: leading in deployment, lagging in innovationPublication . Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês M. L.China's massive carbon emissions and air pollution concerns have led its government to embrace clean energy innovation as a means of transitioning to a more sustainable energy system. We address the question of whether China's wind industry has become an important source of clean energy technology innovation. We find that in terms of wind capacity expansion, China has delivered enormous progress, increasing its wind capacity from virtually no wind capacity in the early 2000s to 140 GW by 2015. However, in terms of innovation and cost competitiveness, the outcomes were more limited: Chinese wind turbine manufacturers have secured few international patents and achieved moderate learning rates compared to the global industry's historical learning rate. Leading China-based indigenous producers are likely to remain important global players for the foreseeable future, but further progress in reducing the cost of capital equipment may slow relative to the recent past. However, opportunities in lowering curtailment rates and improving turbine quality can reduce China's overall levelized cost of electricity for wind.
- A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologiesPublication . Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Ins L.China has emerged as the global manufacturing center for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. Chinese firms have entered all stages of the supply chain, producing most of the installed solar modules around the world. Meanwhile, production costs are at record lows. The decisions that Chinese solar producers make today will influence the path for the solar industry and its role towards de-carbonization of global energy systems in the years to come. However, to date, there have been no assessments of the future costs and efficiency of solar PV systems produced by the Chinese PV industry. We perform an expert elicitation to assess the technological and non-technological factors that led to the success of China's silicon PV industry as well as likely future costs and performance. Experts evaluated key metrics such as efficiency, costs, and commercial viability of 17 silicon and non-silicon solar PV technologies by 2030. Silicon-based technologies will continue to be the mainstream product for large-scale electricity generation application in the near future, with module efficiency reaching as high as 23% and production cost as low as $0.24/W. The levelized cost of electricity for solar will be around $34/MWh, allowing solar PV to be competitive with traditional energy resources like coal. The industry's future developments may be affected by overinvestment, overcapacity, and singular short-term focus.
- Who gains and who loses from more information in technology markets? Evidence from the Sunshine ActPublication . Zhang, Huiyan; Branstetter, Lee; Conti, Raffaele; Mamadehussene, SamirResearch Summary: We consider the context of a technology market where participants (in particular, sellers) differ in reputation, and sellers observed participating in the transactions might suffer a reputation loss. Our theoretical model predicts that low-reputation idea sellers, thanks to the improvement in information disclosure, are more likely to be involved in technology transactions; at the same time, high-reputation idea sellers, to protect their reputations, might prefer avoiding any transactions. This shift in seller composition might affect the quantity and quality of collaborations. To test our theory, we assess the effect of the Physician Payment Sunshine Act on physician-firm collaborations. Overall, our findings indicate that while information disclosure might benefit some market participants, it can have unintended negative consequences for others. Managerial Summary: In technology markets, more information about market participants generally leads to better outcomes. However, in contexts where sellers suffer a reputation loss if their transactions become known, higher-reputation sellers may leave the market, affecting the quality of ideas being traded and impacting buyers. On the other hand, lower-reputation sellers may benefit from increased visibility and share their ideas more frequently. Our research examined these effects in the context of the Physician Payment Sunshine Act, which made physician collaborations with medical device companies visible. The results suggest that the effects of information disclosure are not uniform and that some market participants may benefit while others may suffer losses.