Equity valuation : Airbus SE

Chiaro, Federico

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/55731

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Authors

Chiaro, Federico

Advisor(s)

Martins, José Tudela

Abstract(s)

This document provides a commercial, financial, and valuation analysis of Airbus, one of Europe’s leading manufacturers of commercial and military aircraft, satellites, and helicopters. The core of this report is centered around an intrinsic valuation, primarily using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Two approaches have been adopted to estimate the Terminal Value (TV): the perpetuity growth method and the exit multiple method based on EV/EBITDA. Additionally, a relative valuation based on comparable companies has been included, though given less weight, utilizing EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales multiples. The weighted average of these methodologies yields a fair value of €147.29, essentially aligned with Airbus’ market share price of €147.14 as of the valuation date (April 30, 2025). This supports a Hold recommendation for investors. The valuation is underpinned by Airbus’s anticipated production ramp-up, driven by the substantial backlog of orders accumulated post-pandemic. The analysis suggests that company’s expected growth is already reflected in the current market price. Lastly, these findings have been contrasted with an independent equity report by AlphaValue, which recommends a Buy, although their valuation incorporates different methods and underlying assumptions.

Este documento apresenta uma análise comercial, financeira e de avaliação da Airbus, uma das principais empresas europeias na produção de aeronaves comerciais e militares, satélites e helicópteros. O foco central deste relatório recai numa avaliação intrínseca, realizada sobretudo através de um modelo de Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). Foram utilizados dois métodos diferentes para estimar o valor terminal (TV): o método de crescimento perpétuo e o método de múltiplo de saída baseado no EV/EBITDA. Além disso, foi também efetuada uma avaliação relativa, com menor ponderação, através de múltiplos de empresas comparáveis, nomeadamente EV/EBITDA e EV/Sales. A média ponderada destes métodos resultou num valor justo (fair value) de 147,29€, praticamente alinhado com o preço de mercado da ação da Airbus de 147,14€, na data de avaliação (30 de abril de 2025). Assim, recomenda-se uma posição de Hold para os investidores. A avaliação tem por base o aumento esperado na produção da Airbus, impulsionado pela significativa carteira de encomendas acumuladas após a pandemia. Os resultados sugerem que o crescimento já se encontra refletido no preço atual das ações. Por último, estes resultados foram comparados com um relatório independente da AlphaValue, que recomenda um Buy, embora essa avaliação utilize diferentes métodos e pressupostos.