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Fundeb e transição demográfica: efeitos distributivos e sustentabilidade financeira das redes municipais de educação em Caucaia e Eusébio, Ceará, Brasil
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Este artigo analisa os efeitos do modelo de financiamento educacional via Fundeb sobre a equidade federativa em contextos demográficos contrastantes, com base em um estudo comparativo entre os municípios cearenses de Caucaia (com retração populacional) e Eusébio (em expansão populacional). A pesquisa operacionalizou quatro indicadores principais: taxa de crescimento/redução de matrículas, relação Fundeb/recursos próprios, custo aluno-ano e densidade institucional da rede. Os dados referentes ao período de 2014 a 2024 revelam que Caucaia apresentou redução de 2,2% nas matrículas e maior dependência do Fundeb (relação 3,44), enquanto Eusébio registrou crescimento de 16,4% e menor dependência (relação 0,87). Fundamentado nos referenciais de Rawls (1999), Sen (2009) e Merton (1968), demonstra-se que o atual modelo, embora incorpore fatores de ponderação e mecanismos redistributivos introduzidos pela EC nº 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT e VAAR), ao manter como eixo central o número de matrículas ponderadas, tende a produzir efeitos assimétricos em contextos demográficos distintos, com municípios em expansão apresentando ganhos relativos de escala e aqueles em retração enfrentando desafios de sustentabilidade financeira. Conclui-se pela urgência na implementação do Custo Aluno-Qualidade (CAQ) e na adoção de mecanismos redistributivos que considerem variáveis demográficas, fiscais e sociais, assegurando sustentabilidade financeira e justiça educacional em contextos de desigualdade.
This article analyzes the effects of the education financing model via Fundeb on federative equity in contrasting demographic contexts, based on a comparative study of the municipalities of Caucaia (with population decline) and Eusébio (with population growth) in the state of Ceará. The research operationalized four main indicators: the rate of growth/reduction in enrollments, the Fundeb/own-revenue ratio, cost per student-year, and institutional density of the school system. Data for the period from 2014 to 2024 reveal that Caucaia experienced a 2.2% reduction in enrollments and greater dependence on Fundeb (ratio of 3.44), while Eusébio recorded growth of 16.4% and lower dependence (ratio of 0.87). Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Rawls (1999), Sen (2009), and Merton (1968), the study shows that the current model—although it incorporates weighting factors and redistributive mechanisms introduced by Constitutional Amendment No. 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT, and VAAR)—by maintaining the number of weighted enrollments as its central axis, tends to produce asymmetric effects in different demographic contexts. Municipalities experiencing growth benefit from relative economies of scale, whereas those undergoing decline face challenges to financial sustainability. The article concludes by emphasizing the urgency of implementing the Student Quality Cost (CAQ) and adopting redistributive mechanisms that take demographic, fiscal, and social variables into account, thereby ensuring financial sustainability and educational justice in contexts of inequality.
This article analyzes the effects of the education financing model via Fundeb on federative equity in contrasting demographic contexts, based on a comparative study of the municipalities of Caucaia (with population decline) and Eusébio (with population growth) in the state of Ceará. The research operationalized four main indicators: the rate of growth/reduction in enrollments, the Fundeb/own-revenue ratio, cost per student-year, and institutional density of the school system. Data for the period from 2014 to 2024 reveal that Caucaia experienced a 2.2% reduction in enrollments and greater dependence on Fundeb (ratio of 3.44), while Eusébio recorded growth of 16.4% and lower dependence (ratio of 0.87). Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Rawls (1999), Sen (2009), and Merton (1968), the study shows that the current model—although it incorporates weighting factors and redistributive mechanisms introduced by Constitutional Amendment No. 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT, and VAAR)—by maintaining the number of weighted enrollments as its central axis, tends to produce asymmetric effects in different demographic contexts. Municipalities experiencing growth benefit from relative economies of scale, whereas those undergoing decline face challenges to financial sustainability. The article concludes by emphasizing the urgency of implementing the Student Quality Cost (CAQ) and adopting redistributive mechanisms that take demographic, fiscal, and social variables into account, thereby ensuring financial sustainability and educational justice in contexts of inequality.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Fundeb Financiamento educacional Equidade federativa Transição demográfica Justiça distributiva Educational financing Federative equity Demographic transition Distributive justice
Contexto Educativo
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Arizona State University