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Learning through repetition? A dynamic evaluation of grade retention in Portugal

dc.contributor.authorBoghesan, Emilio
dc.contributor.authorReis, Hugo
dc.contributor.authorTodd, Petra E.
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-15T09:38:26Z
dc.date.available2024-05-15T09:38:26Z
dc.date.issued2022-11-11
dc.description.abstractHigh rates of grade retention are a matter of much controversy and debate worldwide. Although some students may learn more with extended classroom time, other students get discouraged and drop out of school. This paper develops and implements a dynamic value-added modeling approach for estimating grade retention effects in Portuguese high schools where over 40% of students were retained. The statistical model is derived from an education production function that describes how knowledge cumulates with sequential years of school attendance, including repeated grades. Model parameters are obtained using simulated method of moments applied to nationwide administrative test score data. The estimated model is used to simulate achievement in math and Portuguese under the existing grade retention and compulsory schooling policies and under alternative policies. Results show that the average impact of the current policy on 12th grade test scores of retained students is positive, 0.2 standard deviations in math and 0.5 s.d. in Portuguese. However, we find that the test score impacts are heterogeneous and roughly one third of students experience learning loss. Retention also significantly increases school dropout, especially for male youth and older students. We compute policy-relevant treatment effects for retention’s effects on lifetime earnings, taking into account retention’s simultaneous effects on educational attainment, knowledge, and age of labor market entry, and we solve for the optimal retention policy that maximizes average lifetime earnings in the population.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/45095
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.publisherUniversity of Pennsylvaniapt_PT
dc.titleLearning through repetition? A dynamic evaluation of grade retention in Portugalpt_PT
dc.typeworking paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.conferencePlacePhiladelphia, United Statespt_PT
oaire.citation.endPage80pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue22-030pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titlePIER Working Paperpt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typeworkingPaperpt_PT

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