| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 758.86 KB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
O propósito desta dissertação consiste em estimar o justo valor de ações da Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW), com referência a 31-12-2021. Para isso foi utilizado o modelo de Discounted Cash Flows (DCF), que permitiu apurar um valor de $276 por ação, face a uma cotação de $307 no dia 03-09-2021. Foi também realizada uma análise comparativa dos múltiplos EV/EBITDA e EV/Vendas a que a SHW e os potenciais peers transacionavam nesse dia, que corroborou o resultado obtido pelo modelo DCF, ou seja, o entendimento de que a ações da SHW se encontravam sobreavaliadas. No entanto, a análise de múltiplos realizada não poderia per se (isto é, sem o suporte de uma análise DCF) suportar uma recomendação de “vender”, na medida em que os peers identificados apresentam diferenças substanciais face à SHW, nomeadamente ao nível do ROIC, taxa de crescimento dos EPS e mix de produtos. De facto, não foi possível encontrar peers plenamente comparáveis à SHW.
Para o mesmo período (31-12-2021), o JP Morgan definiu um price target para as ações da SHW de $310, emitindo, portanto, uma recomendação distinta da desta dissertação. A análise do relatório emitido pelo JP Morgan permitiu identificar as três diferenças principais entre as duas avaliações, que se centram no valor dos cash flows projetados, na taxa de desconto e/ou crescimento perpétuo utilizada, e no tratamento da dívida.
The purpose of this dissertation is the valuation of SHW’s equity as of 31-12-2021. The application of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model indicated a fair market value of $276 per share, while the share was trading at $307 on 03-09-2021. A relative valuation was conducted, based on multiples EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales, which also suggested that the market was overestimating the value of SHW’s share. Nevertheless, the relative valuation alone (i.e. without the support of a DCF valuation) could not be used as the basis for a “sell” recommendation, because the identified peers are substantially different from SHW in terms of ROIC, growth rate and product mix. As a matter of fact, it was not possible to identify perfectly comparable peers for SHW. For the same date (31-12-2021), JP Morgen defined a price target of $310 per share. The analysis of JP Morgan’s valuation report led to the identification of three major differences when compared to the valuation included in this dissertation. Such differences consist of different projected cash flows, different discount rate and/or perpetual growth rate, and different treatment of debt.
The purpose of this dissertation is the valuation of SHW’s equity as of 31-12-2021. The application of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model indicated a fair market value of $276 per share, while the share was trading at $307 on 03-09-2021. A relative valuation was conducted, based on multiples EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales, which also suggested that the market was overestimating the value of SHW’s share. Nevertheless, the relative valuation alone (i.e. without the support of a DCF valuation) could not be used as the basis for a “sell” recommendation, because the identified peers are substantially different from SHW in terms of ROIC, growth rate and product mix. As a matter of fact, it was not possible to identify perfectly comparable peers for SHW. For the same date (31-12-2021), JP Morgen defined a price target of $310 per share. The analysis of JP Morgan’s valuation report led to the identification of three major differences when compared to the valuation included in this dissertation. Such differences consist of different projected cash flows, different discount rate and/or perpetual growth rate, and different treatment of debt.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Avaliação de empresas Cash flows descontados Tintas e revestimentos Equity valuation Discounted cash flows Paints and coatings