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Com uma posição relevante no segmento de jornais e de revistas, a Cofina, S.G.P.S., S.A. (adiante designada por Cofina ou Grupo) é um dos maiores grupos de imprensa escrita a actuar em Portugal. É detentora de um portfólio de 5 jornais e 10 revistas, destacando-se o Correio da Manhã, um jornal diário generalista (líder de mercado), e a Sábado, revista generalista que tem vindo a consolidar a sua posição no mercado. O Grupo tem conseguido contrariar o contexto macroeconómico desfavorável, o forte ambiente concorrencial do sector e a queda do mercado publicitário, o que se tem reflectido em ganhos de quota de mercado e numa performance operacional sólida. Porém, a instabilidade dos mercados bolsistas tem afectado também a cotação da Cofina, que desde Janeiro de 2011 desvalorizou mais de 55%. Esta Dissertação pretende apurar o valor subjacente às acções da Cofina, através de uma análise aprofundada do Grupo e da indústria, assim como das suas perspectivas de crescimento. A avaliação foi realizada com base na revisão bibliográfica e nas melhores práticas de avaliação de empresas, de forma a combinar adequadamente a teoria e a prática e obter o valor justo da cotação da Cofina. Com esta avaliação foi possível concluir que as acções da Cofina encontram-se cotadas abaixo do seu valor intrínseco, 0,77 euros, apresentando um potencial de valorização de 174,7%, o que se traduz numa recomendação de compra. Esta recomendação resulta, essencialmente, da performance operacional sólida que a Cofina tem vindo a apresentar, com margens EBITDA acima da média dos peers e dos restantes players do sector em Portugal.
With a relevant position on the market segment of newspapers and magazines, Cofina, S.G.P.S., S.A (from now on referred as Cofina or Group) is one of the major groups of the written press operating in Portugal. It holds a portfolio of 5 newspapers and 10 magazines, namely Correio da Manhã, which is a generalist daily newspaper (market leader), and Sábado, a generalist magazine that has been strengthening its market position. The Group has shown the ability to counteract the unfavorable macroeconomic context, the strong competitive environment of the sector and the fall in the advertisement market, which has been reflected in an increased market share and a solid operational performance. However, the instability in the stock market has also affected Cofina’s share price, which has devalued more than 55% since January 2011. This Thesis aims to obtain the value of Cofina’s stocks through a profound analysis of the Group and its industry, as well as according to its growth perspectives. The evaluation was based on a literature review and on the best equity valuation practices, in order to conciliate the theory and practice and to reach the real value of Cofina’s share price. With this evaluation it was possible to conclude that Cofina’s stocks are quoted under their intrinsic value, 0,77 euros, presenting a potential appreciation of 174,7%, which corresponds to a buying recommendation. This suggestion is due to Cofina’s solid operational performance, with EBITDA margins above the average of its peers as well as of the other players in the Portuguese sector.
With a relevant position on the market segment of newspapers and magazines, Cofina, S.G.P.S., S.A (from now on referred as Cofina or Group) is one of the major groups of the written press operating in Portugal. It holds a portfolio of 5 newspapers and 10 magazines, namely Correio da Manhã, which is a generalist daily newspaper (market leader), and Sábado, a generalist magazine that has been strengthening its market position. The Group has shown the ability to counteract the unfavorable macroeconomic context, the strong competitive environment of the sector and the fall in the advertisement market, which has been reflected in an increased market share and a solid operational performance. However, the instability in the stock market has also affected Cofina’s share price, which has devalued more than 55% since January 2011. This Thesis aims to obtain the value of Cofina’s stocks through a profound analysis of the Group and its industry, as well as according to its growth perspectives. The evaluation was based on a literature review and on the best equity valuation practices, in order to conciliate the theory and practice and to reach the real value of Cofina’s share price. With this evaluation it was possible to conclude that Cofina’s stocks are quoted under their intrinsic value, 0,77 euros, presenting a potential appreciation of 174,7%, which corresponds to a buying recommendation. This suggestion is due to Cofina’s solid operational performance, with EBITDA margins above the average of its peers as well as of the other players in the Portuguese sector.
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Keywords
Avaliação de empresas Adjusted present value Enterprise value Imprensa escrita Jornais Revistas Cofina Equity valuation Written press Newspapers Magazines