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Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area

2021Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorCosta, Leonardo
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Francisca Guedes de
dc.contributor.authorLeitão, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorParedes, José
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-22T09:04:17Z
dc.date.available2021-12-26T01:30:23Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractWe describe the neoclassical view of the business cycle by European Institutions in the Euro Area, and derive the stylized facts of business cycles and trends for Germany and Portugal in the period 1991–2018. The data are extracted from the European Commission’s AMECO database. To separate cycle and trend, we use the decomposition available in the AMECO database for the output, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the other variables. The results show that the amplitude of the business cycle and persistence of shocks are greater in Portugal than in Germany. They also show that the stylized facts of the business cycles of the two economies are quite different. Moreover, common shocks have asymmetric consequences. In the long run, there has been a convergence of inflation, general government structural balances, and real unit labour costs, but general government consolidated gross debt, fixed investment, and per capita potential GDP have been increasingly diverging, despite the behaviour of real wages and net exports in the two countries. Additionally, temporary shocks have permanent effects on the Portuguese economy. The results raise questions about the place-neutral macroeconomic policy enforced by the European institutions in the Euro Area, particularly in what concerns cohesion Member States.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationCosta, L., Oliveira, F. G. D., Leitão, A., & Paredes, J. (2021). Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area. European Planning Studies, 29(4), 654–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2020.1766424pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/09654313.2020.1766424pt_PT
dc.identifier.eid85087482766
dc.identifier.eissn1469-5944
dc.identifier.issn0965-4313
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/30933
dc.identifier.wos000549624300001
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherTaylor & Francispt_PT
dc.subjectEuro Areapt_PT
dc.subjectCore and peripherypt_PT
dc.subjectStylized factspt_PT
dc.subjectMacroeconomic policypt_PT
dc.subjectPlace-based approachpt_PT
dc.titleBusiness cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Areapt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage680
oaire.citation.issue4
oaire.citation.startPage654
oaire.citation.titleEuropean Planning Studiespt_PT
oaire.citation.volume29
person.familyNameCosta
person.familyNameGuedes de Oliveira
person.givenNameLeonardo
person.givenNameFrancisca
person.identifierAAL-3816-2021
person.identifier.ciencia-id4012-5FCD-867F
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8992-2519
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8626-6701
person.identifier.scopus-author-id18433384700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57191908088
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicationdc0e2e75-acd0-4ecf-8a37-9473c7cf92b3
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverydc0e2e75-acd0-4ecf-8a37-9473c7cf92b3

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