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Brazil’s economic complexity: a comparative analysis across global powers and the global south
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Resumo(s)
Sendo a décima maior economia do mundo, o Brasil tem registado, ao longo das últimas três décadas, um declínio marcado e sustentado na sua complexidade económica. Esta trajetória descendente coloca desafios significativos à ambição do país de assumir um papel mais influente na governação económica global. Apesar do seu potencial estrutural e da sua relevância geopolítica, o Brasil continua a enfrentar obstáculos substanciais na sua transição para o estatuto de país de alto rendimento. Este estudo responde às seguintes questões de investigação: Como tem evoluído a complexidade económica do Brasil em relação às grandes potências globais e ao Sul Global? E quais os fatores que explicam o declínio contínuo da complexidade económica brasileira? Para tal, adotamos uma metodologia comparativa que examina a trajetória económica do Brasil paralelamente às economias globais líderes e a atores proeminentes do Sul Global. Recorrendo ao Índice de Complexidade Económica (ECI) como principal enquadramento analítico, a investigação identifica lacunas críticas de desenvolvimento e oportunidades estratégicas. Por meio de estudos de caso e comparações transnacionais, os resultados demonstram que, apesar de esforços políticos significativos para aumentar a complexidade económica do Brasil, o país ainda não estabeleceu as condições necessárias para reverter o seu declínio persistente. O Brasil permanece numa posição intermédia, sem a sofisticação tecnológica e a diversificação exportadora que caracterizam economias de elevada complexidade. Estas conclusões sublinham a necessidade urgente de políticas industriais direcionadas, estratégias baseadas na inovação e reformas institucionais, oferecendo orientações de política pública que permitam ao Brasil reposicionar-se na hierarquia económica global e avançar a sua agenda de desenvolvimento.
As the world’s tenth-largest economy, Brazil has witnessed a marked and sustained decline in its economic complexity over the past three decades. This downward trajectory presents significant challenges to the country’s ambition of assuming a more influential role in global economic governance. Despite Brazil’s structural potential and geopolitical relevance, it continues to face considerable obstacles in its transition towards high-income status. This study addresses the following research question: How has Brazil’s economic complexity evolved in relation to major global powers and the Global South? What factors have led to the continuous decline in Brazil’s economic complexity? To explore this, we adopt a comparative methodology that examines Brazil’s economic trajectory alongside both leading global economies and prominent actors within the Global South. Using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as the principal analytical framework, the research identifies critical development gaps and strategic opportunities. Through case studies and cross-national comparisons, our findings demonstrate that, despite notable political efforts to enhance Brazil’s economic complexity, the country has yet to establish the necessary conditions to reverse its long-standing decline. Brazil remains in an intermediate position, lacking the technological sophistication and export diversification that typify high-complexity economies. These insights underscore the urgent need for targeted industrial policies, innovation-led strategies, and institution reforms, providing policy guidance for Brazil to reposition itself within the global economic hierarchy and advance its development agenda.
As the world’s tenth-largest economy, Brazil has witnessed a marked and sustained decline in its economic complexity over the past three decades. This downward trajectory presents significant challenges to the country’s ambition of assuming a more influential role in global economic governance. Despite Brazil’s structural potential and geopolitical relevance, it continues to face considerable obstacles in its transition towards high-income status. This study addresses the following research question: How has Brazil’s economic complexity evolved in relation to major global powers and the Global South? What factors have led to the continuous decline in Brazil’s economic complexity? To explore this, we adopt a comparative methodology that examines Brazil’s economic trajectory alongside both leading global economies and prominent actors within the Global South. Using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as the principal analytical framework, the research identifies critical development gaps and strategic opportunities. Through case studies and cross-national comparisons, our findings demonstrate that, despite notable political efforts to enhance Brazil’s economic complexity, the country has yet to establish the necessary conditions to reverse its long-standing decline. Brazil remains in an intermediate position, lacking the technological sophistication and export diversification that typify high-complexity economies. These insights underscore the urgent need for targeted industrial policies, innovation-led strategies, and institution reforms, providing policy guidance for Brazil to reposition itself within the global economic hierarchy and advance its development agenda.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Brasil Brazil Complexidade económica Diversificação económica Economic complexity Economic Complexity Index (ECI) Economic diversification Global south Índice de Complexidade Económica (ECI) Sul global
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Zhang, X., Leandro, F. J. B. S., & Vieira, A. D. D. G. (2026). Brazil’s economic complexity: a comparative analysis across global powers and the global south. Janus.net, 16(2), 191-215. https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT0126.8