Equity valuation of Allgeier SE

Sträußl, Alexander Jonathan

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/55342

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Authors

Sträußl, Alexander Jonathan

Advisor(s)

Martins, José Tudela

Abstract(s)

This thesis delivers a comprehensive commercial, financial, and valuation assessment of Allgeier SE, a German IT Services provider. The core analysis focuses on valuing Allgeier through two intrinsic valuation techniques, namely the traditional DCF method and the APV approach, complemented by a relative valuation, performed as of April 30, 2025. The valuation yields a blended final target share price of EUR 24.73, which indicates a 21.83% premium over Allgeier’s share price on April 30, 2025. The valuation assumes Allgeier leverages its established position in the German IT Services market, benefitting from the ongoing digitalization trend and a strategic shift to higher-margin services. The ability to attract IT talent and cost control in a competitive landscape remain crucial for Allgeier’s long-term success. The DACH IT Services market forecast supports future revenue growth, as recovery from recent macroeconomic headwinds and delayed IT investments is anticipated. The analysis is compared with Berenberg’s equity report, which proposes a slightly higher target price of EUR 22.00 based on a DCF model with perpetuity growth. The deviation in the perpetuity growth approaches reflects more conservative assumptions in this dissertation, resulting in a marginally lower valuation, yet still endorsing the BUY recommendation. In conclusion, this analysis suggests that the market currently undervalues Allgeier’s stock due to the multiple ongoing headwinds. However, the company’s positive long-term outlook highlights significant upward potential for investors.

Esta tese apresenta uma avaliação comercial e financeira abrangente da Allgeier SE, uma prestadora de serviços de TI alemã. A análise é feita através de duas técnicas de avaliação intrínseca, nomeadamente o método DCF e a abordagem APV, complementada por uma avaliação utilizando múltiplos, realizada a 30 de abril de 2025. Esta indica um preço-alvo final combinado das ações de EUR 24,73, representando um prémio de 21,83% sobre o preço real das ações. A avaliação assume que a Allgeier aproveita a sua posição estabelecida no mercado alemão de serviços de IT, beneficiando da tendência de digitalização e da mudança estratégica para serviços de maior margem. Atrair talento IT e controlar custos num mercado competitivo continua crucial para o sucesso a longo prazo. A previsão para o mercado DACH sustenta o crescimento, com recuperação esperada de entraves macroeconómicos e investimentos adiados. A análise é comparada com o relatório de ações do Berenberg, que propõe um preço-alvo exatamente de EUR 22,00, com base num modelo DCF de crescimento perpétuo. O desvio reflete pressupostos mais conservadores, resultando numa avaliação mais baixa, mas ainda assim apoiando a recomendação BUY. Concluindo, esta análise sugere que o mercado subvaloriza as ações da Allgeier, justificado por razões mencionados acima, embora as perspetivas positivas a longo prazo evidenciarem um potencial de subida para os investidores.

Keywords

Allgeier Analyst report APV Avaliação de ações Avaliação relativa DCF Equity valuation IT services Preço das ações Relative valuation Relatório de analistas Serviços de IT Share price