Research Center in Management and Economics

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Organizational Unit

Publications

Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium

Publication . Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio

Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper, we propose a method to forecast the equity premium which exploits the frequency relationship between the equity premium and several predictor variables. We evaluate a large set of models and find that, by selecting the relevant frequencies for equity premium forecasting purposes, this method significantly improves in a statistical and economic way upon standard time series forecasting methods. This outperformance is robust regardless of the predictor used, the out-of-sample period considered, and the frequency of the data used.

2021Journal article

Open access

The omni-channel approach: a utopia for companies?

Publication . Hajdas, Monika; Radomska, Joanna; Silva, Susana Costa e

There has been a shift towards providing a seamless consumer journey experience in the retail industry, resulting from a customer-centric approach. In the new paradigm, channels are becoming more intertwined and intricate, and ultimately more companies are embracing the omni-channel alternative. However, this alternative seems to be difficult for companies to operationalize. Such difficulty is due to several factors that need to be identified and disentangled. Therefore, in this study we consider the barriers faced by firms and categorize them to understand whether it is possible to successfully implement the omni-channel approach. We use four case studies to investigate the obstacles, looking for brands that operate in different industries, represent different levels of channel integration and have had different experiences in the retail industry. We identify two types of obstacles: internal, including operational and strategic barriers (employee-related, organizational and vision-related factors); and external, including product-related, customer-related, legal and competitive drivers. We propose a theoretical framework that shows the scope of industry drivers affecting the implementation of an omni-channel strategy, as well as a model showing how internal and external factors affect the evolution of channel integration. As a result, we claim that for some industries and products, even if internal obstacles are significantly reduced, because of industry drivers, successful implementation of the omni-channel approach may ultimately be a utopia.

2020Journal article

Restricted access

Global bifurcation mechanism and local stability of identical and equidistant regions: application to three regions and more

Publication . Gaspar, José M.; Ikeda, Kiyohiro; Onda, Mikihasa

We provide an analytical description of possible spatial patterns in economic geography models with three identical and equidistant regions by adapting results from General Bifurcation mechanism. We then use Pflüger's (2004, Reg Sci Urb Econ) model to show analytically how such spatial patterns can be uncovered. As the freeness of trade increases, a uniform distribution undergoes a direct bifurcation that leads to either (1) a state with two identical small regions and one large region or (2) a state with two identical large regions and one small region. The former state leads to the agglomeration in a single region. The latter leads to a state with two evenly populated regions and one region with no industry, which further undergoes a secondary bifurcation, en route to a partial agglomeration with one small region and one large region. The stability of these states is investigated. We show that an asymmetric equilibrium such that all regions have different positive industry sizes cannot be connected with other types of equilibria. Therefore, an initially asymmetric state will remain so and preserve the ordering between region sizes. For the n-region model, we show that an equilibrium with more than three groups of identical regions cannot be reached from an interior state, thus precluding any completely asymmetric state with industry in all regions. We also provide insights on other economic geography models with three regions.

2020Journal article

Restricted access

How companies evaluate the ROI of social media marketing programmes: insights from B2B and B2C

Publication . Silva, Susana Costa e; Duarte, Paulo Alexandre Oliveira; Almeida, Sara Resende

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to understand and compare how business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) companies evaluate the return on investment (ROI) on their social media marketing (SMM) programmes and how the investment is handled in these type of marketing programmes. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed-methods approach involving multiple cases and a survey was used. Data were collected from personal interviews with eight professionals responsible for SMM management, from four B2B and four B2C companies, complemented with responses to a web-based survey by the other 28 companies’ marketing managers. Findings – The results show that there are some differences between B2B and B2C companies regarding SMM evaluation and investment but in general marketing managers for both types of firms use simple metrics to evaluate their SMM programmes. The main measures used relate to awareness, engagement and reach and most of the metrics identified are interaction-related. Research limitations/implications – Given the complex and sensitive nature of the subject, more research is needed focussed on providing additional evidence from a larger sample of B2B and B2C organizations to allow the extension of the finding to the population as the nonprobabilistic nature and size of the current sample impose that the findings should be interpreted carefully. Future research should focus on understanding what the firm’s characteristics predict the importance and level of effort placed in SMM and the barriers to ROI measurement in SMM programmes, especially in B2B firms. Practical implications – The current findings confirm that the topic of SMM ROI evaluation is not a priority for B2C or B2B companies. There is a need for an update of their online marketing strategy, namely, on budget definition and allocation. Furthermore, companies should increase the autonomy of SM managers, as they are dependent from marketing managers and hire specialized professionals devoted to SMM in both B2C and B2B companies. Originality/value – The findings of this study contribute to improve the understanding of the evaluation of SMM and to extend the literature on the subject. It also provides a relevant advance into the assessment and understanding on the measures used to evaluate the effectiveness of SMM programmes by offering a comparison on how B2B and B2C use metrics and allocate resources to the SMM management.

2020Journal article

Open access

Coordinated Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility

Publication . Cunha, Mariana; Mota, Filipa

This paper analyzes the coordinated effects of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in a setting where firms take into account in their objective function the consumer’s welfare in addition to their profits, produce differentiated products, and compete in quantities. We consider a symmetric case, where firms have the same level of CSR and an asymmetric case, where firms have different levels of CSR. Our results confirm that assigning a positive weight to consumer surplus makes collusion harder to sustain, as shown in the literature. However, for a sufficiently high level of CSR, collusion sustainability is actually increasing in the degree of product substitutability when firms are CSR-symmetric. When firms are CSR-asymmetric, collusion sustainability is increasing in the degree of product differentiation if products are complements. Furthermore, we show that collusion may be welfare-improving when firms adopt a socially responsible behavior, which provides an interesting background to competition authorities when analysing cartel cases.

2020Journal article

Restricted access