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- The failure of stabilization policy: balanced-budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expendituresPublication . Abad, Nicolas; Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Modesto, LeonorWe consider an infinite horizon neoclassical model with a government that (i) balances its budget at each point in time, (ii) faces unavoidable (incompressible) public expenditures, and (iii) further uses a fiscal rule for the share of variable government spending in output with the purpose of stabilizing the economy. We show that insulating this economy from belief driven fluctuations is not possible if the government finances these two components of public spending using a distortionary proportional income tax. In this case, we always have steady state multiplicity (two steady states) and global indeterminacy, while local indeterminacy is also possible. More precisely, even if a sufficiently procyclical share of the variable government spending component in output is still able to eliminate local indeterminacy, two saddle steady states prevail, so that, depending on expectations, the economy may either converge to the low steady state or to the high steady state. This implies that a regime switching rational expectation equilibrium, where the economy switches between paths converging to the two different steady states, easily arises. As expectations influence long run outcomes, our model is able to generate large and sudden expansions and contractions in response to expectation shocks.
- Externalities of human capitalPublication . Bosi, Stefano; Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Nishimura, KazuoInvestments in human capital are individual and collective choices carrying significant external effects. Educated parents and friends accelerate our own human capital accumulation. Skilled colleagues at work increase our own productivity. Sharing experiences with cultured people is gratifying by itself. We introduce human capital externalities in a stylized model à la Uzawa (1965) and we find that growth can be no longer balanced and the equilibrium can be globally indeterminate. Labor supply goes to one and capital reaches an upper ceiling in a finite lapse of time above the initial critical value of labor supply ensuring the balanced growth path. Under a constant tax rate, the government should set a positive rate to speed up human capital accumulation during transition to the capital ceiling.