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- The VAT Laffer curve and the business cycle in the EU27: an empirical approachPublication . Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de; Costa, LeonardoValue Added Tax (VAT) standard rate Laffer curves are estimated for the European Union of twenty seven countries (EU27) over the period 1995-2011, using a twice continuously differentiable VAT revenue quadratic flexible functional form. A business cycle effect on the Laffer curve is found. In recession years, VAT revenue is typically lower, the curve steeper, and the VAT standard rate that maximises VAT revenue slightly smaller than previously. These results can be explained with reference to changes in the composition of consumption and VAT collection enforcement. A countercyclical VAT standard rate policy (procyclical fiscal policy), observable in a few countries, not only increases the underlying business cycle volatility but may also result in long-term instability of VAT revenue. In 2011, the maximum VAT standard rates in expansion and recession were respectively 22.0 and 21.5 per cent. Most of the EU27 countries were operating in the non-prohibitive range of the curve; although Portugal, with a VAT standard rate of 23 per cent, along with several other countries with similar rates, was already operating in the prohibitive range of the curve. VAT standard rate Laffer curves shifted to the left and maximum VAT standard rates declined during the analysed period.
- Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro AreaPublication . Costa, Leonardo; Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de; Leitão, Alexandra; Paredes, JoséWe describe the neoclassical view of the business cycle by European Institutions in the Euro Area, and derive the stylized facts of business cycles and trends for Germany and Portugal in the period 1991–2018. The data are extracted from the European Commission’s AMECO database. To separate cycle and trend, we use the decomposition available in the AMECO database for the output, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the other variables. The results show that the amplitude of the business cycle and persistence of shocks are greater in Portugal than in Germany. They also show that the stylized facts of the business cycles of the two economies are quite different. Moreover, common shocks have asymmetric consequences. In the long run, there has been a convergence of inflation, general government structural balances, and real unit labour costs, but general government consolidated gross debt, fixed investment, and per capita potential GDP have been increasingly diverging, despite the behaviour of real wages and net exports in the two countries. Additionally, temporary shocks have permanent effects on the Portuguese economy. The results raise questions about the place-neutral macroeconomic policy enforced by the European institutions in the Euro Area, particularly in what concerns cohesion Member States.