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- Integrating public health policies in the epidemiological modeling of hepatitis C with LEHC tool: application in AustriaPublication . Lopes, Henrique; Baptista-Leite, Ricardo; Franco, Diogo; Pirke, Roxana; Gschwantler, MichaelBackground: Eliminating hepatitis C requires addressing issues other than medicines or therapies. Public health policies focused on the hepatitis C virus (HCV) must be emphasized and worked to know the impacts on its epidemiologic dynamics. This research aims to provide a tool to evaluate and simulate alternatives by redefining policies meeting specific needs in each country towards the HCV elimination target by 2030. Methods: The development of a gamified model with 24 public health policies focused on HCV was conducted to evaluate the impact of measures in the disease epidemiologic dynamics. The Let’s End HepC (LEHC) project encompassed key populations (people who inject drugs [PWID], prisoners, blood products and remnant population) in Austria and other countries, presenting prospects for every year from 2019 to 2030. The LEHC epidemiological model comprised an integrated solution for HCV, with adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) and Markov chains constituting its main processes. Results: Despite Austria’s efforts towards achieving the HCV elimination goal by 2030, the LEHC model forecast quantitative analysis predicts that it is still not enough to meet the target; however, prospects are very optimistic if public health policies are adapted to the country’s needs, being possible to achieve the goal as early as 2026. Conclusion: In Austria, the LEHC tool allowed to forecast the HCV elimination year anticipation to 2026, instead of being achieved after 2030. This target will only be valid if adequate management of the 24 public health policies focused on this pathology is further implemented.
- Real-world evidence: the low validity of temperature screening for COVID-19 triagePublication . Pană, Bogdan C.; Lopes, Henrique; Furtunescu, Florentina; Franco, Diogo; Rapcea, Anca; Stanca, Mihai; Tănase, Alina; Coliţă, AncaBackground: The COVID-19 pandemic forced health-related organizations to rapidly launch country-wide procedures that were easy to use and inexpensive. Body temperature measurement with non-contact infrared thermometers (NCITs) is among the most common procedures, both in hospital settings and in many other entities. However, practical hospital experiences have raised great doubts about the procedure's validity. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the validity of the body temperature measured using NCITs among oncological and transplant patients who took the polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-Cov-2 PCR+ and PCR- in a Romanian Hospital. Methods: Body temperature was measured for 5,231 inpatients using NCITs. The cutoff point for fever was equal to or above 37.3 degrees C. Patients then completed a questionnaire about their symptoms, contact, and travel history. Findings: Fever was detected in five of 53 persons with PCR+, resulting in a sensitivity of 9.43% (95% CI, 3.13-20.66%). No fever was verified in 5,131 of 5,171 persons with PCR-, resulting in a specificity of 99.15% (95% CI, 98.86-99.38%). A defensive vision of NCIT procedure (maximum standard error only in favor) had a sensitivity of 15.09% (95% CI, 6.75-27.59%). Conclusions: The use of NCITs in a triage provides little value for detection of COVID-19. Moreover, it provides a false sense of protection against the disease while possibly discriminating individuals that could present fever due to other reasons, such as oncologic treatments, where fever is a common therapeutical consequence. The consumption of qualified human resources should be considered, especially in the context of the shortage of healthcare professionals worldwide.