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Centro de Estudos em Gestão e Economia (CEGE)

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  • The impact of the ECB’s PEPP on Euro area bond spreads
    Publication . Pinto, João; Costa, Tiago
    We examine the impact of the European Central Bank’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on euro area banks, non-financial firms, and governments’ cost of borrowing. Using a large sample of 751 sovereign bonds, 2,116 corporate bonds, 469 covered bonds, and 725 asset-backed securities, issued in the 2018-2021 period, and subsamples of eligible bonds, we find that the PEPP successfully reduced corporate, covered, and sovereign bond spreads in both the announcement and purchasing periods, consistent with signalling, direct, and portfolio rebalancing channels of monetary policy. For asset-backed securities, the findings are mixed: while we show a spread reduction during the purchasing period for the full sample, we do not find any significant impact for bonds fulfilling eligibility criteria. Finally, we show that the PEPP’s impact on bond spreads is significantly higher for those issued in GIIPS versus core European countries.
    2023-06-15Artigo de investigação Acesso aberto Ver mais
  • Quit playing games with our lives: layoffs predict road traffic fatalities
    Publication . Gruda, Dritjon; Gonçalves, Ricardo; Zadegan, Milad Sharafi
    Economic downturns are typically associated with fewer traffic accidents due to reduced driving. However, the psychological and social shocks of sudden job loss may counterintuitively increase risk on the road. In this paper, we examine whether mass layoffs announcements are associated with short-term increases in traffic fatalities in the United States using spatial autoregressive models. Merging monthly U.S. county-level data on mass layoffs with motor vehicle fatality counts, we find a significant uptick in monthly traffic fatalities following major layoff events. This pattern persists after accounting for seasonal trends and regional factors, including unemployment rates and weather conditions. These findings suggest that the stress and disruption caused by mass layoffs can have deadly consequences beyond the workplace. We discuss psychological mechanisms (e.g., distress-related driving impairment) and implications linked to short-term rises in traffic fatalities and public health implications for fatal crash risk.
    2026-01-01Artigo de investigação Acesso aberto Ver mais