Browsing by Author "Pozzo, Valentino Da"
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- Equity valuation of DHL GroupPublication . Pozzo, Valentino Da; Martins, José TudelaThis thesis aims to determine the fair value of DHL Group’s equity as of 31.10.2025. To this end, a comprehensive financial analysis of the company and a commercial analysis of the logistics industry were conducted. A Sum-of-the-Parts approach is used, reflecting the diverse business segments within the Group and enabling a differentiated assessment of their respective value contributions. The underlying financial forecast anticipates continued revenue growth across business units supported by DHL’s established market positioning. Yet, growth is expected to be constrained by macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the implementation of global tariffs. Simultaneously, the Group is projected to achieve an improvement in profitability, driven by the execution of a broad-based cost optimization program. The valuation was carried out using a discounted cash flow and a relative valuation model based on EV/EBIT multiples, with the resulting target share price of EUR 42.8 being derived as the average of both methods. While the fair value reflects upside potential, a higher intrinsic than relative value indicates the prevailing uncertainty among market participants, particularly regarding the potential implications of protectionist trade policies on the logistics industry. To assess the plausibility of the results, the valuation was benchmarked against two equity research reports. While the overall conclusion of both reports on the fair value aligns with this thesis, differences in target prices can largely be attributed to the use of different valuation methodologies and underlying assumptions in each case.