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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Este artigo tem dois objectivos principais. O primeiro é fornecer um panorama descritivo das sondagens pré-eleitorais realizadas nas eleições autárquicas de 2005, analisando as suas características técnicas e a forma como os seus resultados foram divulgados pelos meios de comunicação social. O segundo é analisar o grau de precisão dessas sondagens, confrontando as estimativas apresentadas com o que vieram a ser os resultados eleitorais e testando algumas hipóteses acerca dos factores que podem influenciar essa precisão.
This article has two main goals. The first is to provide an overview of the preelectoral polls conducted before the 2005 local elections in Portugal, analyzing their technical and methodological characteristics and the way their results were published in the media. The second goal is to describe and explain the level of accuracy of those polls, comparing the estimates they provided with what ended up being the electoral results. Several hypotheses are tested about the factors that explain variations in accuracy.
This article has two main goals. The first is to provide an overview of the preelectoral polls conducted before the 2005 local elections in Portugal, analyzing their technical and methodological characteristics and the way their results were published in the media. The second goal is to describe and explain the level of accuracy of those polls, comparing the estimates they provided with what ended up being the electoral results. Several hypotheses are tested about the factors that explain variations in accuracy.
Description
Keywords
Comunicação social Eleições autárquicas Portugal Sondagens pré-eleitorais Local elections Mass media Poll accuracy Portugal Pre-electoral polls
Citation
MAGALHÃES, Pedro; MOREIRA, Diogo – As sondagens pré-eleitorais nas autárquicas de 2005. Comunicação & Cultura. Lisboa. ISSN 1646-4877. 3 (Primavera-Verão 2007) 157-173
Publisher
Quimera