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Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

2025-03-08Research article Open access
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datacite.subject.sdg03:Saúde de Qualidade
dc.contributor.authorGBD 2021 Adult BMI
dc.contributor.authorNg, Marie
dc.contributor.authorGakidou, Emmanuela
dc.contributor.authorLo, Justin
dc.contributor.authorAbate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis
dc.contributor.authorAbbafati, Cristiana
dc.contributor.authorAbbas, Nasir
dc.contributor.authorAbbasian, Mohammadreza
dc.contributor.authorElHafeez, Samar Abd
dc.contributor.authorAbdel-Rahman, Wael M.
dc.contributor.authorAbd-Elsalam, Sherief
dc.contributor.authorAbdollahi, Arash
dc.contributor.authorAbdoun, Meriem
dc.contributor.authorAbdulah, Deldar Morad
dc.contributor.authorAbdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
dc.contributor.authorAbdullahi, Auwal
dc.contributor.authorAbedi, Armita
dc.contributor.authorAbeywickrama, Hansani Madushika
dc.contributor.authorAbie, Alemwork
dc.contributor.authorAboagye, Richard Gyan
dc.contributor.authorAbohashem, Shady
dc.contributor.authorAbtahi, Dariush
dc.contributor.authorAbualruz, Hasan
dc.contributor.authorAbubakar, Bilyaminu
dc.contributor.authorFarha, Rana Kamal Abu
dc.contributor.authorAbukhadijah, Hana J.
dc.contributor.authorAbu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.
dc.contributor.authorAburuz, Salahdein
dc.contributor.authorAbu-Zaid, Ahmed
dc.contributor.authorAdams, Lisa C.
dc.contributor.authorAdane, Mesafint Molla
dc.contributor.authorAddo, Isaac Yeboah
dc.contributor.authorAdedokun, Kamoru Ademola
dc.contributor.authorAdegoke, Nurudeen A.
dc.contributor.authorAdepoju, Abiola Victor Victor
dc.contributor.authorAdesola, Ridwan Olamilekan
dc.contributor.authorAdeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther
dc.contributor.authorAdiga, Usha
dc.contributor.authorAdnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
dc.contributor.authorAfaghi, Siamak
dc.contributor.authorAfzal, Saira
dc.contributor.authorAfzal, Muhammad Sohail
dc.contributor.authorAgampodi, Thilini Chanchala
dc.contributor.authorAghamiri, Shahin
dc.contributor.authorSobrinho, Cesar Agostinis
dc.contributor.authorAgyemang-Duah, Williams
dc.contributor.authorAhlstrom, Austin J.
dc.contributor.authorAhmad, Danish
dc.contributor.authorAhmad, Sajjad
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, João C.
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Nuno
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-11T17:18:47Z
dc.date.available2025-07-11T17:18:47Z
dc.date.issued2025-03-08
dc.description.abstractBackground Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Findings Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. Interpretation No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels.eng
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00355-1
dc.identifier.eid85219548783
dc.identifier.issn0140-6736
dc.identifier.pmcPMC11920007
dc.identifier.pmid40049186
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/53887
dc.identifier.wos001494322300001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleGlobal, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021eng
dc.typeresearch article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage838
oaire.citation.issue10481
oaire.citation.startPage813
oaire.citation.titleLancet
oaire.citation.volume405
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85

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