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Climate-driven spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes infestation and dengue transmission in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil.
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Dengue transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions that affect mosquito population dynamics and virus circulation. In Southern Brazil, where dengue historically occurred at low levels, recent climatic anomalies may be contributing to the expansion of Aedes vectors and an increase in local dengue incidence. This study investigated the spatiotemporal association between climatic variables, Aedes mosquito infestation and dengue cases in Porto Alegre (Southern Brazil, 2018 to 2025). Entomological, surveillance and climatic data were analyzed using Morans I and LISA for spatial association, Kendall correlation, polynomial regression and LASSO to identify relevant drivers and develop predictive models of mosquito infestation and dengue incidence. A strong spatial association between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus was observed, with persistent local clusters detected across all years. Annual climatic variables were associated with mosquito abundance in several districts. Overall, rainfall frequency had a stronger effect on Aedes aegypti abundance than accumulated rainfall. Temperature and lagged infestation indices showed strong association with both species and dengue incidence, with effects observed up to four weeks prior. Predictive models demonstrated good agreement between observed and predicted values, particularly within low to moderate infestation levels. Lagged variables were consistently retained in both mosquito infestation abundance and dengue incidence models, highlighting the importance of temporal predictors for anticipating vector dynamics and dengue risk. This approach is generally applicable for predicting Aedes infestation and disease incidence and emphasizes the importance of integrating entomological and climatic surveillance data to improve anticipation and detection of dengue risk periods and support more effective public health interventions.
Author summaryDengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitos that affects millions of people worldwide. Its spread is strongly influenced by climatic conditions that modulate mosquito life cycles. In Southern Brazil, where dengue historically occurred at low levels, recent climate variability and extreme weather events may be creating favorable conditions for the expansion of Aedes mosquitos and local dengue activity. In this study, we analyzed mosquito, dengue, and climatic surveil in Porto Alegre, Brazil, from 2018 to 2025 to understand how climate influences mosquito infestation and dengue incidence. We found that mosquito infestation and dengue cases show clear spatial patterns across the city and are strongly influenced by temperature and rainfall. Interestingly, the number of rainy days had a stronger effect on mosquito abundance than the total amount of rainfall. We also observed that higher mosquito infestation was associated with an increase in dengue cases up to four weeks later. These findings show that combining climatic and mosquito surveillance data can help anticipate periods of higher dengue risk and support more effective mosquito control and public health actions.
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medRxiv