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Dynamics and ecology of a multistage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil

dc.contributor.authorTegally, Houriiyah
dc.contributor.authorDellicour, Simon
dc.contributor.authorPoongavanan, Jenicca
dc.contributor.authorMavian, Carla
dc.contributor.authorDor, Graeme
dc.contributor.authorFonseca, Vagner
dc.contributor.authorTagliamonte, Massimiliano S.
dc.contributor.authorDunaiski, Marcel
dc.contributor.authorMoir, Monika
dc.contributor.authorWilkinson, Eduan
dc.contributor.authorAlbuquerque, Carlos Frederico Campelo de
dc.contributor.authorFrutuoso, Livia C. V.
dc.contributor.authorHolmes, Edward C.
dc.contributor.authorBaxter, Cheryl
dc.contributor.authorLessells, Richard
dc.contributor.authorKraemer, Moritz U. G.
dc.contributor.authorLourenco, José
dc.contributor.authorAlcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Tulio de
dc.contributor.authorGiovanetti, Marta
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-30T13:14:35Z
dc.date.available2026-04-30T13:14:35Z
dc.date.issued2026-04-17
dc.description.abstractIn March 2024, Brazil reported an unprecedented Oropouche fever outbreak, driven by the emergence of a reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) expanding beyond the Amazon Basin. To investigate the expansion dynamics of OROV, we implemented complementary phylogeographic and ecological niche modelling approaches that aimed to characterize the environmental factors associated with the range expansion and the risk of local circulation, respectively. Our analyses reveal a multiscale expansion process with both shortand long-distance dispersal events and diffusion velocities in line with air traffic-mediated jumps. We identify banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, the predicted suitability of the primary vector Culicoides paraensis and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion in new areas. We further show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the probable role of human mobility in the long-distance colonization of new areas and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.eng
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41559-026-03042-0
dc.identifier.eid105036669049
dc.identifier.other78637053-c23c-49f5-9a8c-19eabe077c73
dc.identifier.pmid41998282
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/57632
dc.identifier.wos001742819400001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherNature Research
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.titleDynamics and ecology of a multistage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil
dc.typeresearch article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage1126
oaire.citation.issue6
oaire.citation.startPage1114
oaire.citation.volume10
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85

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