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  • The impact of time shifting on TV consumption and ad viewership
    Publication . Belo, Rodrigo; Ferreira, Pedro; Matos, Miguel Godinho de; Reis, Filipa
    In this paper we study the impact of time shifting on TV consumption and ad viewership. We analyze the results of a field experiment in which a random sample of “triple-play” households were given a set of premium TV channels broadcasting popular movies and TV shows without commercial breaks. A random subset of these households were given access to these channels with time shifting (automated cloud recording for later viewing or rewinding of broadcasted programs), while the remainder were not. This design allowed us to identify the effects of time shifting on TV consumption. On average, we found that receiving access to the channels with time shifting increased total TV consumption because it increased time-shifted viewership while leaving live viewership unchanged. The increase in the live viewership of these channels was similar to the reduction in the live viewership of the originally available channels, resulting in a net zero effect on live viewership. It appears that time shifting does not change the concentration of live viewership, but it does increase the concentration of total TV viewership, because it is used disproportionately to watch the most popular programs. Finally, we found that time shifting does not change the likelihood of skipping ads during live viewership, suggesting that households do not use time shifting to strategically avoid ads.
  • Target the ego or target the group: evidence from a randomized experiment in proactive churn management
    Publication . Matos, Miguel Godinho de; Ferreira, Pedro; Belo, Rodrigo
    We propose a new strategy for proactive churn management that actively uses social network information to help retain consumers. We collaborate with a major telecommunications provider to design, deploy, and analyze the outcomes of a randomized control trial at the household level to evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy. A random subset of likely churners were selected to be called by the firm. We also randomly selected whether their friends would be called. We find that listing likely churners to be called reduced their propensity to churn by 1.9 percentage points from a baseline of 17.2%. When their friends were also listed to be called, their likelihood of churn reduced an additional 1.3 percentage points. The client lifetime value of likely churners increased 2.1% with traditional proactive churn management, and this statistic becomes 6.4% when their friends were also listed to be called by the firm. We show that, in our setting, likely churners receive a signal from their friends that reduces churn among the former. We also discuss how this signal may trigger mechanisms akin to both financial comparisons and conformity that may explain our findings.