Percorrer por autor "Tegally, Houriiyah"
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- Dengue virus importation risks in Africa: a modelling studyPublication . Poongavanan, Jenicca; Lourenço, José; Tsui, Joseph L.H.; Colizza, Vittoria; Ramphal, Yajna; Baxter, Cheryl; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Dunaiski, Marcel; Oliveira, Tulio de; Tegally, HouriiyahBackground: Dengue is a significant global public health concern that poses a threat in Africa. Particularly, African countries are at risk of viral introductions through air travel connectivity with areas of South America and Asia in which explosive dengue outbreaks frequently occur. Limited reporting and diagnostic capacity hinder a comprehensive assessment of continent-wide transmission dynamics and deployment of surveillance strategies in Africa. In this study, we aimed to identify African airports at high risk of receiving passengers with dengue from Asia, Latin America, and other African countries with high dengue incidence. Methods: For this modelling study, air travel flow data were obtained from the International Air Transport Association database for 2019. Data comprised monthly passenger volumes from 14 high-incidence countries outside of Africa and 18 countries within the African continent that reported dengue outbreaks in the past 10 years to 54 African countries, encompassing all 197 commercial airports in both the source and destination regions. The risk of dengue introduction into Africa from countries of high incidence in Asia, Latin America, and within Africa was estimated based on origin–destination air travel flows and epidemic activity at origin. We produced a novel proxy for local dengue epidemic activity using a composite index of theoretical climate-driven transmission suitability and population density, which we used, in addition to travel information in a risk flow model, to estimate importation risk. Findings: Countries in eastern Africa had a high estimated risk of dengue importation from Asia and other east African countries, whereas for west African countries, the risk of importation was higher from within the region than from countries outside of Africa. Some countries with high risk of importation had low local transmission suitability, which is likely to hamper the risk that dengue importations would lead to local transmission and establishment of a dengue outbreak. Mauritius, Uganda, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Kenya were identified as countries susceptible to dengue introductions during periods of persistent transmission suitability. Interpretation: Our study improves data-driven allocation of surveillance resources, in regions of Africa that are at high risk of dengue introduction and establishment, including from regional circulation. Improvements in resource allocation will be crucial in detecting and managing imported cases and could improve local responses to dengue outbreaks. Funding: Rockefeller Foundation, National Institute of Health, EDCTP3 and Horizon Europe Research and Innovation, World Bank Group, Medical Research Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Google, Oxford Martin School Pandemic Genomics programme, and John Fell Fund.
- Integrated analyses of the transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 and its association with molecular evolution of the virus underlining the pandemic outbreaks in Italy, 2019-2023Publication . Cella, Eleonora; Fonseca, Vagner; Branda, Francesco; Tosta, Stephane; Moreno, Keldenn; Schuab, Gabriel; Ali, Sobur; Slavov, Svetoslav Nanev; Scarpa, Fabio; Santos, Luciane Amorim; Kashima, Simone; Wilkinson, Eduan; Tegally, Houriiyah; Mavian, Carla; Borsetti, Alessandra; Caccuri, Francesca; Salemi, Marco; Oliveira, Tulio de; Azarian, Taj; Filippis, Ana Maria Bispo de; Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior; Ceccarelli, Giancarlo; Caruso, Arnaldo; Colizzi, Vittorio; Marcello, Alessandro; Lourenço, José; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Giovanetti, MartaBackground: Italy was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing multiple waves of infection following the sequential emergence of new variants. Understanding the transmission patterns and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is vital for future preparedness. Methods: We conducted an analysis of viral genome sequences, integrating epidemiological and phylodynamic approaches, to characterize how SARS-CoV-2 variants have spread within the country. Results: Our findings indicate bidirectional international transmission, with Italy transitioning between importing and exporting the virus. Italy experienced four distinct epidemic waves, each associated with a significant reduction in fatalities from 2021 to 2023. These waves were primarily driven by the emergence of VOCs such as Alpha, Delta, and Omicron, which were reflected in observed transmission dynamics and effectiveness of public health measures. Conclusions: The changing patterns of viral spread and variant prevalence throughout Italy's pandemic response underscore the continued importance of flexible public health strategies and genomic surveillance, both of which are crucial for tracking the evolution of variants and adapting control measures effectively to ensure preparedness for future outbreaks.
- Travel-associated international spread of Oropouche virus beyond the AmazonPublication . Iani, Felipe Campos de Melo; Pereira, Felicidade Mota; Oliveira, Elaine Cristina de; Rodrigues, Janete Taynã Nascimento; Machado, Mariza Hoffmann; Fonseca, Vagner; Adelino, Talita Emile Ribeiro; Guimarães, Natalia Rocha; Tomé, Luiz Marcelo Ribeiro; Gómez, Marcela Kelly Astete; Nardy, Vanessa Brandão; Ribeiro, Adriana Aparecida; Rosewell, Alexander; Ferreira, Álvaro Gil A.; Mello, Arabela Leal e Silva de; Fernandes, Brenda Machado Moura; Albuquerque, Carlos Frederico Campelo de; Pereira, Dejanira dos Santos; Pimentel, Eline Carvalho; Lima, Fábio Guilherme Mesquita; Silva, Fernanda Viana Moreira; Pereira, Glauco de Carvalho; Tegally, Houriiyah; Almeida, Júlia Deffune Profeta Cidin; Moreno, Keldenn Melo Farias; Vasconcelos, Klaucia Rodrigues; Santos, Leandro Cavalcante; Silva, Lívia Cristina Machado; Frutuoso, Livia C. V.; Lamounier, Ludmila Oliveira; Costa, Mariana Araújo; Oliveira, Marília Santini de; Anjos, Marlei Pickler Dediasi dos; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Lima, Maurício Teixeira; Pereira, Maira Alves; Rocha, Marília Lima Cruz; Silva, Paulo Eduardo de Souza da; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Almeida, Priscila Souza de; Lessells, Richard; Gazzinelli, Ricardo T.; Cunha, Rivaldo Venancio da; Gonçalves, Sabrina; Santos, Sara Cândida Ferreira dos; Belettini, Senele Ana de Alcântara; Pedroso, Silvia Helena Sousa Pietra; Araújo, Sofia Isabel Rótulo; Silva, Stephanni Figueiredo da; Croda, Julio; Maciel, Ethel; Voorhis, Wes Van; Martin, Darren P.; Holmes, Edward C.; Oliveira, Tulio de; Lourenço, José; Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior; Giovanetti, MartaOropouche virus (OROV), first detected in Trinidad and Tobago in 1955, was historically confined to the Brazilian Amazon Basin. However, since late 2022, an increasing number of OROV cases have been reported across various regions of Brazil as well as in urban centers in Bolivia, Ecuador, Guyana, Colombia, Cuba, Panama, and Peru. In collaboration with Central Public Health Laboratories across Brazil, we integrated epidemiological metadata with genomic analyses from recent cases, generating 133 whole-genome sequences covering the virus’s three genomic segments (L, M, and S). These include the first genomes from regions outside the Amazon and from the first recorded fatal cases. Phylogenetic analyses show that the 2024 OROV genomes form a monophyletic group with sequences from the Amazon Basin sampled since 2022, revealing a rapid north-to-south viral movement into historically non-endemic areas. We identified 21 reassortment events, though it remains unclear whether these genomic changes have facilitated viral adaptation to local ecological conditions or contributed to phenotypic traits of public health significance. Our findings demonstrate how OROV has evolved through reassortment and spread rapidly across multiple states in Brazil, leading to the largest outbreak ever recorded outside the Amazon and the first confirmed fatalities. Additionally, by analysing travel-related cases, we provide the first insights into the international spread of OROV beyond Brazil, further highlighting the role of human mobility in its dissemination. The virus’s recent rapid geographic expansion and the emergence of severe cases emphasize the urgent need for enhanced surveillance across the Americas. In the absence of significant human population changes over the past two years, factors such as viral adaptation, deforestation, and climate shifts—either individually or in combination— may have facilitated the spread of OROV beyond the Amazon Basin through both local and travel-associated transmission.