Percorrer por autor "Pfeiffer, Dirk"
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- EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networksPublication . Pinotti, Francesco; Lourenço, José; Gupta, Sunetra; Gupta, Suman Das; Henning, Joerg; Blake, Damer; Tomley, Fiona; Barnett, Tony; Pfeiffer, Dirk; Hoque, Md Ahasanul; Fournié, GuillaumeThe rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of ecoepidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.
- Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird marketPublication . Pinotti, Francesco; Kohnle, Lisa; Lourenço, José; Gupta, Sunetra; Hoque, Md Ahasanul; Mahmud, Rashed; Biswas, Paritosh; Pfeiffer, Dirk; Fournié, GuillaumeH9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major concern for the poultry sector and human health in countries where this subtype is endemic. By fitting a model simulating H9N2 AIV transmission to data from a field experiment, we characterise the epidemiology of the virus in a live bird market in Bangladesh. Many supplied birds arrive already exposed to H9N2 AIVs, resulting in many broiler chickens entering the market as infected, and many indigenous backyard chickens entering with pre-existing immunity. Most susceptible chickens become infected within one day spent at the market, owing to high levels of viral transmission within market and short latent periods, as brief as 5.3 hours. Although H9N2 AIV transmission can be substantially reduced under moderate levels of cleaning and disinfection, effective risk mitigation also requires a range of additional interventions targeting markets and other nodes along the poultry production and distribution network.