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Browsing by Author "Bettencourt, Paulo J. G."

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  • Aedes albopictus arrives in Lisbon: an emerging public health threat
    Publication . Nazareth, Teresa; Seixas, Gonçalo; Lourenço, José; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    2023Journal article Open access Show more
  • Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    Publication . GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ababneh, Hazim S.; Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh; Abbasian, Mohammadreza; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Magied, Abdallah H.A. Abd Al; ElHafeez, Samar Abd; Abdelkader, Atef; Abdelmasseh, Michael; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdi, Parsa; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Abdoun, Meriem; Abdullahi, Auwal; Abebe, Mesfin; Abiodun, Olumide; Aboagye, Richard Gyan; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abouzid, Mohamed; Aboye, Girma Beressa; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Absalan, Abdorrahim; Abualruz, Hasan; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; Abukhadijah, Hana Jihad Jihad; Addolorato, Giovanni; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun; Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi; Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther; Adha, Rishan; Adhikary, Ripon Kumar; Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah; Adzigbli, Leticia Akua; Afrashteh, Fatemeh; Afzal, Muhammad Sohail; Afzal, Saira; Agbozo, Faith; Agodi, Antonella; Agrawal, Anurag; Agyemang-Duah, Williams; Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku; Ahlstrom, Austin J.; Ahmad, Aqeel; Ahmad, Firdos; Ahmad, Muayyad M.; Ahmad, Sajjad; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    2024-05-18Journal article Open access Show more
  • Deficiency of factor-inhibiting HIF creates a tumor-promoting immune microenvironment
    Publication . Ma, Jingyi; Moussawi, Khatoun Al; Lou, Hantao; Chan, Hok Fung; Wang, Yihua; Chadwick, Joseph; Phetsouphanh, Chansavath; Slee, Elizabeth A.; Zhong, Shan; Leissing, Thomas M.; Roth, Andrew; Qin, Xiao; Chen, Shuo; Yin, Jie; Ratnayaka, Indrika; Hu, Yang; Louphrasitthiphol, Pakavarin; Taylor, Lewis; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.; Muers, Mary; Greaves, David R.; McShane, Helen; Goldin, Robert; Soilleux, Elizabeth J.; Coleman, Mathew L.; Ratcliffe, Peter J.; Lu, Xin
    Hypoxia signaling influences tumor development through both cell-intrinsic and -extrinsic pathways. Inhibiting hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) function has recently been approved as a cancer treatment strategy. Hence, it is important to understand how regulators of HIF may affect tumor growth under physiological conditions. Here we report that in aging mice factor-inhibiting HIF (FIH), one of the most studied negative regulators of HIF, is a haploinsufficient suppressor of spontaneous B cell lymphomas, particular pulmonary B cell lymphomas. FIH deficiency alters immune composition in aged mice and creates a tumor-supportive immune environment demonstrated in syngeneic mouse tumor models. Mechanistically, FIH-defective myeloid cells acquire tumor-supportive properties in response to signals secreted by cancer cells or produced in the tumor microenvironment with enhanced arginase expression and cytokine-directed migration. Together, these data demonstrate that under physiological conditions, FIH plays a key role in maintaining immune homeostasis and can suppress tumorigenesis through a cell-extrinsic pathway.
    2024-02-29Journal article Open access Show more
  • Development of a new mRNA vaccine platform for tuberculosis
    Publication . Matarazzo, Laura; Taina‑González, Laura; Pinheiro, Ricardo; Pires, David; Fuente, Maria de la; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    2023-03-31Conference object Open access Show more
  • Development of a new mRNA vaccine platform for tuberculosis
    Publication . Matarazzo, Laura; Taina‑González, Laura; Pinheiro, Ricardo; Pires, David; de la Fuente, María; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    Background Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb), is the frst cause of death by an infectious disease worldwide, killed 1.6 million people in 2021. Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) is the only approved vaccine for TB to date. However, while BCG is efective in preventing severe forms in children, its efcacy in adults is inconsistent and it does not prevent transmission, highlighting the need for new vaccine development [1]. The recent success of COVID-19 vaccines raised the interest for mRNA-based vaccines, as they are efective, safe and easy to produce. This project aims to develop a new mRNA vaccine platform for TB, based on mRNA coding for antigenic peptides from BCG and M.tb identifed by immunopeptidomics [2], and formulated with a patented technology of lipid nanoemulsions (NE) (WO2019138139A1), adapted for efcient intracellular delivery of mRNA [3]. Materials and methods We tested diferent prototypes of NE-mRNA formulations, coding for EGFP, in vitro. Human alveolar basal epithelial cells (A549), human monocytic cells (THP-1), and primary human monocyte-derived macrophages, were transfected with NE-mRNA formulations. Transfection efciency was assessed by measuring the percentage of transfected cells, and the intensity of GFP fuorescence. The cytotoxicity of the formulations was evaluated using AlamarBlue, and by 7-AAD viability staining. Results In vitro preliminary data using EGFP-mRNA-NE formulations indicate that NE formulations can efciently deliver mRNA and induce expression of the encoded protein in diferent cell types, with low cytotoxicity. Conclusions The NE technology presented here is safe, stable, and can efciently deliver mRNA to various cell types. Selected NE formulations will be used as a carrier for a new vaccine candidate against TB, based on mRNA encoding relevant antigenic peptides. These will be tested in mice for safety, immunogenicity, efcacy and dose optimization in order to generate an efective and sustained humoral and cellular immune response against TB. The mRNA vaccines are rapid and relatively simple to produce. The vaccine platform described here could be adapted to develop vaccines against other infectious diseases, particularly to quickly respond to emerging pathogens.
    2023-08-21Journal article Open access Show more
  • Dissecting the Mycobacterium bovis BCG response to macrophage infection to help prioritize targets for anti-tuberculosis drug and vaccine discovery
    Publication . Medley, Jamie; Goff, Aaron; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.; Dare, Madelaine; Cole, Liam; Cantillon, Daire; Waddell, Simon J.
    New strategies are required to reduce the worldwide burden of tuberculosis. Intracellular survival and replication of Mycobacterium tuberculosis after macrophage phagocytosis is a fundamental step in the complex host–pathogen interactions that lead to granuloma formation and disease. Greater understanding of how the bacterium survives and thrives in these environments will inform novel drug and vaccine discovery programs. Here, we use in-depth RNA sequencing of Mycobacterium bovis BCG from human THP-1 macrophages to describe the mycobacterial adaptations to the intracellular environment. We identify 329 significantly differentially regulated genes, highlighting cholesterol catabolism, the methylcitrate cycle and iron homeostasis as important for mycobacteria inside macrophages. Examination of multi-functional gene families revealed that 35 PE/PPE genes and five cytochrome P450 genes were upregulated 24 h after infection, highlighting pathways of potential significance. Comparison of the intracellular transcriptome to gene essentiality and immunogenicity studies identified 15 potential targets that are both required for intracellular survival and induced on infection, and eight upregulated genes that have been demonstrated to be immunogenic in TB patients. Further insight into these new and established targets will support drug and vaccine development efforts.
    2022-01-13Journal article Open access Show more
  • Functional in-vitro evaluation of the non-specific effects of BCG vaccination in a randomised controlled clinical study
    Publication . Wilkie, Morven; Tanner, Rachel; Wright, Daniel; Ramon, Raquel Lopez; Beglov, Julia; Riste, Michael; Marshall, Julia L.; Harris, Stephanie A.; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.; Hamidi, Ali; Diemen, Pauline M. van; Moss, Paul; Satti, Iman; Wyllie, David; McShane, Helen
    Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), the only currently licenced tuberculosis vaccine, may exert beneficial non-specific effects (NSE) in reducing infant mortality. We conducted a randomised controlled clinical study in healthy UK adults to evaluate potential NSE using functional in-vitro growth inhibition assays (GIAs) as a surrogate of protection from four bacteria implicated in infant mortality. Volunteers were randomised to receive BCG intradermally (n = 27) or to be unvaccinated (n = 8) and were followed up for 84 days; laboratory staff were blinded until completion of the final visit. Using GIAs based on peripheral blood mononuclear cells, we observed a significant reduction in the growth of the Gram-negative bacteria Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumonia following BCG vaccination, but no effect for the Gram-positive bacteria Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus agalactiae. There was a modest association between S. aureus nasal carriage and growth of S. aureus in the GIA. Our findings support a causal link between BCG vaccination and improved ability to control growth of heterologous bacteria. Unbiased assays such as GIAs are potentially useful tools for the assessment of non-specific as well as specific effects of TB vaccines. This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02380508, 05/03/2015; completed).
    2022-05-12Journal article Open access Show more
  • Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    Publication . GBD 2021 Demographics Collaborators; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30763 locationyears of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In locationyears where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.
    2024-03-11Journal article Open access Show more
  • Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    Publication . GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators; Brauer, Michael; Roth, Gregory A.; Aravkin, Aleksandr Y.; Zheng, Peng; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh; Abbasi, Madineh Akram; Abbasian, Mohammadreza; Abbasifard, Mitra; Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen; ElHafeez, Samar Abd; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdi, Parsa; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Abdoun, Meriem; Abdulah, Deldar Morad; Abdullahi, Auwal; Abebe, Mesfin; Abedi, Aidin; Abedi, Armita; Abegaz, Tadesse M.; Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño; Abiodun, Olumide; Abiso, Temesgen Lera; Aboagye, Richard Gyan; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abouzid, Mohamed; Aboye, Girma Beressa; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Abualruz, Hasan; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; Abukhadijah, Hana Jihad Jihad; Aburuz, Salahdein; Abu-Zaid, Ahmed; Adane, Mesafint Molla; Addo, Isaac Yeboah; Addolorato, Giovanni; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji; Adekanmbi, Victor; Aden, Bashir; Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi; Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther; Adha, Rishan; Adibi, Amin; Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah; Adzigbli, Leticia Akua; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    2024-05-18Journal article Open access Show more
  • Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    Publication . GBD 2021 Causes of Death Collaborators; Bettencourt, Paulo J. G.
    Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates— with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sexlocation-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration causeof-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.
    2024-05-18Journal article Open access Show more